Western Union WU
September 10, 2017 - 8:30am EST by
member
| 2017 | 2018 | ||||||
| Price: | 18.70 | EPS | 1.85 | 1.95 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 472 | P/E | 10.1 | 9.6 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 8,826 | P/FCF | 9.9 | 9.8 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 2,718 | EBIT | 1,116 | 1,130 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 11,544 | TEV/EBIT | 10.3 | 10.2 | |||
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| 51 | |
Hi swag,
WU was one of my biggest mistakes -- not in terms of $ loss, as dividends have largely offset the decline in the share price such that the loss is -16% -- but in... login to read the rest | |
| 50 | |
? | |
| 48 | |
It hurt their India volumes, but the impact was acute and largely in 4Q16, with possibly some lingering impact into 1H17. But the weakness from demonetization is largely over now. India faces an easy comp in 4Q17 as | |
| 46 | |
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/buffett-says-cyrptocurrencies-will-almost-certainly-end-badly.html
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| 45 | |
I don't know enough about Western Union's business to give you a really valuable perspective.
But the big risk is certainly not contained to Western Union. Transferwise and big moneycenter banks also have a target on... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
Harden, thanks for your comment as I'm continually looking at how can the WU story can be broken. Took a quick look at Ripple Gateway and it seems to be part of the digital money... login to read the rest | |
| 43 | |
If you are long WU it is not a bad idea to sign up to a Ripple Gateway and experiment moving currencies. | |
| 42 | |
Below is what the company was able to say regarding the blockchain news on Friday. I wouldn't be surprised to see the short position decline substantially as WU traded 4x the average volume on Friday... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
They're probably evaluating blockchain technology for WU.com. That's my only guess. But, yeah, cryptomania doesn't care how significant or insignificant it is. Push the stock up 6%. Hey, I'll take it. | |
| 40 | |
what does that even mean? Can WU use XRP to transfer $$$ b/w users or is this just more cryptomania at work? | |
| 39 | |
This is so reminiscent of the dot com bubble when old economy stocks would jump just for adding ".com" to their corporate name.
https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/01/10995984/western-union-rips-higher-amid-rumor-of-xrp-adoption
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| 37 | |
Thanks for posting this, Mencken. It's always of value dig into the bear case and make sure the thesis still holds. This article, as with all of the bear cases I've read (another good one... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fintech-startups-seek-to-shake-up-money-transfer-industry-1513679401
Has been said before on VIC, but this article names names. | |
| 35 | |
Sorry, just realized Woodmac is Wood Mackenzie. I was looking for a user on here named Woodmac. | |
| 34 | |
Thanks. Where was that written? WU would specifically benefit from Middle East capex increases. Is there a projection just for that part of the world anywhere? | |
| 33 | |
Just saw that WoodMac expects offshore capex to increase 15% y/y in 2018 and global upstream capex to increase overall. | |
| 32 | |
Yes, but I would say "stabilize the needle," as opposed to "move the needle." WU got hit with unprecedented macro headwinds for the past 5 years. I had a suspicion that bad luck would be... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Nice catch on the read through to WU. I doubt you see IOCs follow that path. CVX's 2018 budget is likely a blueprint other IOCs follow. U.S. onshore up, int'l down, overall not much change... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
Just to take a step back, my thesis on WU is that assuming macro headwinds on the $4 billion-in-revenue retail C2C business abate, the rapid growth of WU.com ($400 million in revenues, growing at ~23%/yr)... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
I would still like the stock without the big short interest, but the fact that it's there is a small added plus. WU is the most global business on the planet. There are always macro... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
So far we're both wrong and the stock is flat | |
| 26 | |
They beat by 0.08, 0.05-0.06 was tax and 0.02 were convenient wu.way add-backs. Transaction growth in the quarter in North America slowed to 2% from 4-5% in the first 2 quarters of the year. In... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
WU reported a strong quarter. EPS of $0.53 beat the consensus of $0.45, and was 13% ahead of last year. A lower tax rate contributed to part of the beat, but management expected a low... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
Money transfer (the main business) doesn’t generate float since WU transfers the money in minutes. You may be thinking of Venmo (or other free intra-country money transfer businesses) which hold onto your money for a... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Float is generated by the money order business. This is a much bigger business (as a % of revs) for MGI than for WU, where it’s quite small. WU doesn’t have much float and any | |
| 22 | |
I assume they have a significant "float" of cash they hold on behalf of clients, which earns interest at short-term rates. Do their earnings have much leverage to rising rates, or would the fees come | |
| 21 | |
I’m not sure what you mean. Can you be more specific? | |
| 20 | |
Hi Beethoven, is there an interest rate component to this investment? If so, can you quantify? Thanks. | |
| 19 | |
JackBurton, to answer your prior question...
Regarding WU.com, 90% of its transactions are digital-to-cash, and only 10% are digital-to-digital. However, given the larger sums sent in digital-to-digital transactions ($800-$1,000) compared to digital-to-cash ($200-$250), digital-to-digital accounts for... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
Thanks. For the Westerunion.com product, I note that the reported revenue is based on transactions initiated with the westernunion app. Are the recipients of westernunion.com transactions receiving cash, like the rest of Western Union products, or | |