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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
18	member 5/15/24 12:51PM Re: Re: Author exit recommendation 17
Beethoven, I can't say you're wrong. TheCoyElf, you write: "doesn't appear much has really changed". That's true, except that some EBITDA margin expansion has already materialized (Q1 adj EBITDA margins 1.3% higher vs. last year). I... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
17	member 5/15/24 12:41PM Re: Author exit recommendation 15
Smart move with the CEO they have. Did you see the backlash over his "cereal for dinner" comment on CNBC? Lower income people getting squeezed by inflation really took it the wrong way and called... login to read the rest -1 view available tags
16	member 5/15/24 12:40PM Re: Author exit recommendation 15
Hi SamPR, Good call on this - I looked at this briefly and passed (concerns over achieving flat revs); I'm a little confused why its run up so much though. Was the market that pessimistic... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
15	member 5/15/24 11:35AM Author exit recommendation
With the stock up 65% in five months, I'm moving on. Issues identified in this Q+A thread (revenue challenges, long-term capital allocation questions) remain. Business trends are very slightly beyond my original projections (EBITDA guidance of view available tags
14	member 1/05/24 10:49AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 13
Well, it's an uncertain investment. You have at best a flat category. And I would imagine every packaged food company is thinking of some type of innovation that would disrupt cereal. Any new idea will... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 1/04/24 5:09PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 5
FWIW, longer term Post anticipates the category to revert to pre-pandemic trends of flattish/LSD declines. Post is currently in the process of rationalizing its manufacturing footprint. Agree with WinBrun here...capital allocation is what matters. Post... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 12/28/23 10:22AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 11
Beethoven, thanks for tracking those down. I think you may be misinterpreting Chief Transformation Officer -- that seems like more of a corp dev role. I'm not sure exactly what it means, and I think it's... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 12/28/23 9:56AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 10
SamPR, my concern about his competence comes from his LinkedIn profile, and that of the Chief Transformation Officer. Since there's no one with the COO title, I assume the CTO is the COO, which is... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 12/28/23 9:32AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 8
Beethoven, thanks for all your thoughts. I agree with some of the concerns you've raised. I agree that capital allocation will be key, although not until 2027. For the next three years, they'll be focused on refreshing... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 12/28/23 9:23AM Re: fwiw 6
They have commented on how they get the margins, but not with the granularity you'd like. It sounds like it's basically about replacing very old and inefficient plants. They mentioned one case-study of doing so... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 12/27/23 3:31PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 5
WinBrun - I think you nailed it. It's all about capital allocation as the cereal business won't do much in terms of growth, although it might not shrink very rapidly either. I should have used... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 12/27/23 2:13PM Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 2
I agree with what SamPR wrote; among people who are even moderate health nuts breakfast cereals are becoming perceived as unhealthy ultraprocessed foods. Unfortunately for those of us that love Golden Grahams it does appear... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
5	member 12/27/23 1:57PM Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 3
I don't think this is a cigar butt--in this sense of one puff/obsolescent business. Domestic RTE Cereal is a declining business--but is, and should remain, a very good business for awhile. the trends are not... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 12/27/23 1:48PM Re: Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 3
At my local supermarket, the Kellogg's brands were the highest priced, between $8 and $10 a box. ? seriously? where do you shop and live? I've never paid anywhere near that price for cereal in my life... login to read the rest view available tags
3	member 12/27/23 1:25PM Re: Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 2
I read that granola bars and yogurt took share from cereal (healthier), and also that the faster pace of life contributed to people having less time to sit and have breakfast and they'd just grab... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
2	member 12/27/23 12:07PM Re: Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline? 1
My two cents follow, but I'd love to hear what others think. Most cereal is unhealthy compared to other meal options. It's the old "health" model: mix highly-processed corn, wheat, and sugar, fortify it with vitamins,... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
1	member 12/27/23 11:27AM Why is cereal consumption per capita in secular decline?
It’s obvious that it is / was from the data but it’s not so obvious why? view available tags

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			2012	2013
Price:	12.75	EPS	$1.55	$1.20
Shares Out. (in M):	608	P/E	8.2x	10.6x
Market Cap (in $M):	7,754	P/FCF	0.0x	0.0x
Net Debt (in $M):	2,000	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	9,954	TEV/EBIT	0.0x	0.0x
Borrow Cost:	NA

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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