SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS SPR
December 30, 2019 - 2:41pm EST by
member
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| Price: | 73.60 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 104 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 7,617 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| 58 | |
Per my comments on the other, more recent, thread I am pessimistic about the macro backdrop in combination with the leverage. When housing had tailwinds I liked the leverage because it worked in my favor,... login to read the rest | |
| 57 | |
if you don't mind, what drove your decision? | |
| 54 | |
Magins holding this quarter means that they were up. The company is effectively short lumber in that its customer contracts reset more slowly than the product they buy (e.g., if you're selling on a 60... login to read the rest | |
| 53 | |
uncleM,
I am wodnering if you got any detail on why gross margins were down sequentially? This (and the related issue of, if one assumes inflation, unit volume would be down YoY) seemed the only other | |
| 52 | |
Trading sloppy for sure, though not entirely unexpected given the recent price move and lack of analyst coverage. Just spoke with mgmt a little while ago, and I heard nothing that pokes holes in the... login to read the rest | |
| 50 | |
They look good.
Margins up across the board. Sales up. Aggressive commentary around immediate accretion, cash flows and synergies.
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| 48 | |
xds,
Coincidentally had a previously scheduled call w/mgmt this morning. Asked about the purchases. None of them are subsidized, 100% out of pocket for the employees and/or BOD members.
zzz | |
| 47 | |
General question, is there a way to know w these insider buys if they are subsidized by company? I think a few of the corporations I worked for the corp picked up 10% or something | |
| 46 | |
More insider purchases last couple of days:
VP, Chief Admin Officer = $31k
VP, Logistics = $91k
Director (Dinapoli) = $80-85k
Chairman/Director (Fennebresque) = >$1mm
The last one is obviously material. Quite a bit of buying in aggregate.
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| 45 | |
previously at $15 it was a highly leveraged smaller player trading at 7x earnings and probably cheap given how quickly they're growing. now at $34 they're a scaled major market player in all markets, and... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
I would not agree less risky at moment because they took $180mm of equity in the combined structure and replaced it with debt. But I agree with your other sentiments.
- also, they could have sold... login to read the rest | |
| 43 | |
Here's why BXC is actually less risky now: The combined company (with no synergies and no growth and no real estate sale or sales leasebacks) is trading at 7.3x debt/ebitda now versus 7.6x debt/ebitda before... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
I appreciate the risk analysis, but I want to push back a bit because there seems to be a conflating of the three different types of debt: capital leases, WC facility, and "regular" debt. These... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
Roughly $30k. Not a huge amount, but interesting nonetheless on a stock that has doubled in short order. | |
| 40 | |
Thanks! Did they also provide info on whether the $68M in new leasebacks would be on similar terms - a 9% cap rate? Glad to hear they can use NOLs for ops (to a point)... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
Spoke with mgmt earlier today. Thought I would pass along a few thoughts.
Re the 4m swing from ebitda on the 110M SLB transactions, mgmt commented they had been overly conservative in their prior estimation, and... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
cnm3d,
Agree with all your points. I did attempt to highlight in my comments that if you are a bear on housing, you do not want to be anywhere near BXC given the combination of financial... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
Sure. There are risks such as the ones you mention. If one is concerned about macro/interest rates/etc. can be easily hedged by shortinig hbp/bldr, maybe others such as amwd. Also would point out that double... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
We did some calls as well. Mainly with customers. Agreed with the assessment that there's a lot of overlap and synergies. Said in some markets CC was better in other BXC, but given wholesale focus... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
Ships passing in the night...saw ahnuld's comment after I posted.
I would speculate the reason Charlesbank (seller) didn't take stock back is because they want/need liquidity in whatever entity held Cedar Creek. It was purchased in... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
A lot of the accretion is due to integration + cost saves. Standalone EBITDA for Cedar Creek was $60mm trailing, for a purchase price of 7x. This is a full price for a distributor. BlueLinx... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
I think the idea is 7x (pre synergy price) is fully valued in the space, but BXC can extract more synergies than anyone else. Still leaves the question open as to why sellers didnt ask | |
| 30 | |
Why would a company sell at a price that was this accretive? | |
| 28 | |
ok that's fair, takes the yield down to (only!) low-mid 30s%. one of those upside levers (asset sales, incremental synergies, etc.) hits and your yield goes right back up. point is this thing is super | |
| 27 | |
azia,
These guys are going to be cash taxpayers. The NOL is subject to usage limitations, except to the extent they are used to offset gains on the RE portfolio.
I think you should be tax-adjusting your | |
| 26 | |
Otto,
For sure. Intentionally being draconian to illustrate the dislocation here. I think it was pretty clear on the call that mgmt expects substantially more than $50m in cost synergies (I bet they get that much... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
Azia, in terms of fair valuation, I think you are likely low: I think we have a pretty good proxy for where BXC should be trading. HBP (best comp for BXC) is currently trading at... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Agreed. Even if this company were losing money and FCF breakeven (which is far from the case), I think the equity would be trading at 10% of sales which would be $35/share.... Could easily get... login to read the rest | |