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AUTHOR
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47
member
1/16/23 8:02PM
Re: AMZN Buy with Prime
46
Good question. It's definitely one of, if not the most concerning developments for the business. My two cents are that between AMZN eventually growing into their capacity and "wanting it back" for the core biz,... login to read the rest
...until they re-price the SBC.
#"Peloton told employees that eligible team members will have their post-IPO options repriced to Peloton's closing price on July 1 of $9.13".Jul 6, 2022
The upmarket competition is Demandware (owned by Salesforce), Magento (owned by Adobe) and BigCommerce. In that group, checks suggest Demandware is doing best with Magento a bit neglected inside Adobe and BigCommerce more focused on... login to read the rest
This post overall is still a great analysis on the company that I rated highly although I was not fond of the price. Started buying SHOP in the last couple days.
A couple questions:
Who are the competition... login to read the rest
This has obviously been a disaster since posting but I expect you all either knew or could have guessed that given recent market gyrations. I hope that any readers stuck more strongly than I did... login to read the rest
I agree entirely that Shopify is a great company.
I just believe that it is hard to say that Shopify will take over all of eCommerce. First of all, there is WordPress/WooCommerce that does something very... login to read the rest
This is Mr. Market 101. Sometimes he gets excited about certain sectors or the market in general, sometimes he gets depressed. Layer on top of that a huge impact from Covid that nobody fully understands,... login to read the rest
It did not. In the math I was outlining, I was envisaging ~$2.3b of subscription revenue, ~$7b of solutions revenue, ~$9.3b of total revenue and ~$3b of total EBIT (32% margin).
mip -
Completely agree. As the froth in the market increases, people move up the income statement from earnings to EBITDA to revenue multiples. As the air comes out, they move back down the income statement.
virtualodin... login to read the rest
There is stuff getting there. SPOT is on 2x NTM revs (targetting 10%+ LT EBIT margins), CVNA is on 1.4x (targetting low double digit EBIT margins), TWLO is on 6x revs (admittedly GM is low here... login to read the rest
I agree that it's really about sentiment. But, when I look bottom-up at high growth tech, I still don't see asymmetric risk-rewards. They went from very overvalued to, at best, the low end of fair... login to read the rest
I still like it a lot. The stock has cratered while nothing particularly relevant has really changed at the company. The market is fitting narratives to the moves but if the news had taken place while... login to read the rest
Their OS for mechant is still amazing but one weakness is definitely their delivery/logistics:
Plan on spending about 2B through 2024 for infrastutre while Amazon spent 60B in one year 2021 for capex(Yes I know I'm... login to read the rest
Think it depends on if you think logistics is an important part of the business in 2030, and how successful you think they will be in that regard if so. The answer completely changes SHOP's
This feels like a pretty great entry price for a remarkably good company. If you put all my speculation about 2030 TAM, share, ancillaries etc etc etc to one side and just take consensus 2023... login to read the rest
Thanks for the question. I take it positively though I can see how the headline is read negatively. The bottom line is that SFN has clearly been a bit of a damp squip to-date, pretty... login to read the rest
DB out with a note yesterday claiming SHOP is ending relationships with 3PL providers. Could interpret this as doubling down on integrated logistics, in which case the margin and cash figures are going to get nuked...but... login to read the rest
Thanks. To be clear, I have a positive bias towards shop. I just want to better frame the long term potential. Some followups.
1) does the retail sales number include grocery? That seems a pretty large... login to read the rest
Glad you enjoyed it, appreciate the questions. Good to have someone check my work :)
on 1) it does include dining - it doesn't include travel because I don't think the Census Bureau includes travel in retail... login to read the rest
Great write up. A few questions on the assumptions:
1) does the retail sales number include travel and dining? If so, shouldn't that also be excluded? 2) the platforms like amzn, etsy and the top retailers... login to read the rest
virtualodin - Just wanted to say that this type of work on a great business is extremely valuable. Thanks for posting the idea. There's no doubt this is a terrific business. As far as the... login to read the rest
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