You are not eligible to view 17 messages. To gain access to more recent message posts signup free for membership.
#
AUTHOR
DATE
SUBJECT
51
member
3/26/23 8:20PM
Re: What do you think of the stock here?
50
Hi swag,
WU was one of my biggest mistakes -- not in terms of $ loss, as dividends have largely offset the decline in the share price such that the loss is -16% -- but in... login to read the rest
It hurt their India volumes, but the impact was acute and largely in 4Q16, with possibly some lingering impact into 1H17. But the weakness from demonetization is largely over now. India faces an easy comp in 4Q17 as
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: WU is now a blockchain play
44
I don't know enough about Western Union's business to give you a really valuable perspective.
But the big risk is certainly not contained to Western Union. Transferwise and big moneycenter banks also have a target on... login to read the rest
Harden, thanks for your comment as I'm continually looking at how can the WU story can be broken. Took a quick look at Ripple Gateway and it seems to be part of the digital money... login to read the rest
Below is what the company was able to say regarding the blockchain news on Friday. I wouldn't be surprised to see the short position decline substantially as WU traded 4x the average volume on Friday... login to read the rest
They're probably evaluating blockchain technology for WU.com. That's my only guess. But, yeah, cryptomania doesn't care how significant or insignificant it is. Push the stock up 6%. Hey, I'll take it.
This is so reminiscent of the dot com bubble when old economy stocks would jump just for adding ".com" to their corporate name.
https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/01/10995984/western-union-rips-higher-amid-rumor-of-xrp-adoption
Re: Good summary of shorts’ “tech disruption” angle
36
Thanks for posting this, Mencken. It's always of value dig into the bear case and make sure the thesis still holds. This article, as with all of the bear cases I've read (another good one... login to read the rest
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fintech-startups-seek-to-shake-up-money-transfer-industry-1513679401
Has been said before on VIC, but this article names names.
Thanks. Where was that written? WU would specifically benefit from Middle East capex increases. Is there a projection just for that part of the world anywhere?
Yes, but I would say "stabilize the needle," as opposed to "move the needle." WU got hit with unprecedented macro headwinds for the past 5 years. I had a suspicion that bad luck would be... login to read the rest
Nice catch on the read through to WU. I doubt you see IOCs follow that path. CVX's 2018 budget is likely a blueprint other IOCs follow. U.S. onshore up, int'l down, overall not much change... login to read the rest
Just to take a step back, my thesis on WU is that assuming macro headwinds on the $4 billion-in-revenue retail C2C business abate, the rapid growth of WU.com ($400 million in revenues, growing at ~23%/yr)... login to read the rest
I would still like the stock without the big short interest, but the fact that it's there is a small added plus. WU is the most global business on the planet. There are always macro... login to read the rest
They beat by 0.08, 0.05-0.06 was tax and 0.02 were convenient wu.way add-backs. Transaction growth in the quarter in North America slowed to 2% from 4-5% in the first 2 quarters of the year. In... login to read the rest
WU reported a strong quarter. EPS of $0.53 beat the consensus of $0.45, and was 13% ahead of last year. A lower tax rate contributed to part of the beat, but management expected a low... login to read the rest
Money transfer (the main business) doesn’t generate float since WU transfers the money in minutes. You may be thinking of Venmo (or other free intra-country money transfer businesses) which hold onto your money for a... login to read the rest
Float is generated by the money order business. This is a much bigger business (as a % of revs) for MGI than for WU, where it’s quite small. WU doesn’t have much float and any
I assume they have a significant "float" of cash they hold on behalf of clients, which earns interest at short-term rates. Do their earnings have much leverage to rising rates, or would the fees come
JackBurton, to answer your prior question...
Regarding WU.com, 90% of its transactions are digital-to-cash, and only 10% are digital-to-digital. However, given the larger sums sent in digital-to-digital transactions ($800-$1,000) compared to digital-to-cash ($200-$250), digital-to-digital accounts for... login to read the rest
Thanks. For the Westerunion.com product, I note that the reported revenue is based on transactions initiated with the westernunion app. Are the recipients of westernunion.com transactions receiving cash, like the rest of Western Union products, or
Are you sure you want to close this position BASE, Inc.?
By closing position, I’m notifying VIC Members that at today’s market price, I no longer am recommending this position.
Flag BASE, Inc. for Removal
Are you sure you want to Flag this idea BASE, Inc. for removal?
Flagging an idea indicates that the idea does not meet the standards of the club and you believe it should be removed from the site. Once a threshold has been reached the idea will be removed.
You Cannot Submit Message ... Yet
You currently do not have message posting privilages, there are
1 way you can get the privilage.
You can apply for full membership by submitting an investment idea of your own. Or if you are in reactivation status, you need to reactivate your full membership.