Realty Income is a triple net lease REIT that’s grown too
fast over the last couple of years. The
downfall in the triple net lease structure is the cash flow sensitivity to
occupancy rates. 15% of Realty Income’s
revenues are exposed to Buffet (a steak buffet chain). Buffet recently hired restructuring bankers,
and may miss its January bond payment. As
Buffet rejects leases in bankruptcy, Realty Income will struggle to make its
dividend payment. Realty Income signed this deal only a year ago, and the quick
deterioration of this asset speaks to poor investment decisions made by the
current management team. Given recent
cap rate compression, and a likely decrease in occupancy rate, fair value for
this stock is around $19, well below the current $28/share level.
Summary of the
Business
Realty Income is a triple net lease REIT. For those that are not familiar with the
business, triple net lease players enter into sale/leaseback transactions with
operators who own their land ~ allowing them to monetize the real estate in
exchange for a long term lease (generally 15-20 years) at a fixed rate. In
addition the “renter” of the land is responsible for its upkeep, a certain
amount of capital expenditure, and any insurance coverage needed. In exchange for taking on most of the
expenses of owning the land, the rent is usually at sub-market rates, fixed for
a period of time, and has several multi-year extension options at a capped % increase.
Realty Income has been in operation for 38 years and focuses
on single-tenant, stand-alone consumer related properties (convenience stores,
restaurants, theaters, auto dealers, etc.).
The company has doubled its asset base in the last three years, just as
the real estate market was peaking so there is little embedded book value. Current occupancy rates are 98.3%, and the
company owns 2,181 properties. Cap rate
compression has been a large factor in this market in the last couple of years,
as with all of real estate. In addition,
Realty Income has been facing increasing competition for the smaller deals which
have historically been their strength from small players who have easy access
to capital. In order to maintain the
same cap rates, I believe Realty Income has been forced to purchase lower
quality properties. For instance, Realty
Income will buy up a package of 100 properties, 1/3 of which may not meet their
credit criteria. After buying the
properties for between an 8-9% cap rate on average, they turn around and sell
the questionable properties to doctors/dentists in the 1031 at around a 7% cap
rate. Therefore, they historically have
booked gains on the sale of these assets. As financing has dried up, the 1031
market is slowing, leaving Realty Income with properties even they believe are
questionable.
Realty Income’s portfolio is geographically diverse, with Florida and Texas
being the two largest states in terms of revenue. About 20% of revenues come from restaurants,
14% from convenience stores, 9% from theaters, and 9% from childcare. Everything else is a mish mash of various
retailers, ranging from home furnishings and pet supplies to automotive tire
services.
Realty Income’s shareholder base is largely the
unsophisticated retail investor who is focused on his/her dividend payment, as
well as the potential for dividend growth in the future. Realty Income refers to themselves as “The
Monthly Dividend Company” and their annual report literally has a board game
inside. Keeping the retail base happy
has been important given the need for perpetual equity raises to keep growing
the portfolio.
Thesis
The triple net lease REIT business model is dependent upon
keeping up a high occupancy rate. Operationally,
Realty Income is ill-equipped to deal with a large number of delinquencies
given the total number of employees is only 70 people. And the argument that the owners of the real
estate feel little overall value impairment means little to a shareholder base
whose only care is their dividend stream.
It becomes very difficult to maintain or grow a dividend as occupancy decreases. The loss of rental income decreases cash flow
on a more than one to one basis. The
rental income is not easily replaced as it typically takes at least 9 to 12
months to re-lease a property. During
this time, Realty Income is responsible for all of the property expenses and
capital expenditures it typically foists on its renter.
There are a couple of examples of triple net lease players
who have seen a drop in occupancy. AFR
(American Financial Realty) is a triple net least player that purchases empty
bank branches. As banks chose to walk
away from their branches at the end of the contract, the dividend was no longer
covered. Their occupancy dropped from
high nineties, to the low eighties over a couple of years. The company was forced to lower its dividend
and the stock traded at a perpetual discount to NAV thereafter. Realty Income
saw a drop in occupancy of about 200 bps from ’98 to ’00, during which the
stock lost about 40% of its value.
Given the current retail and restaurant environment, the
98.3% occupancy rate reported last quarter is simply unsustainable. While everyone knows the consumer is slow,
there are a couple of other factors that are worth mentioning in the
restaurant/retail space. Realty Income
is exposed more to the casual dining sector than it is to fast food ~ a sector
which is facing significant labor inflation costs as well as commodity inflation. The casual dining sector has been unable to
pass these costs through to the end customer, partly due to competition and
partly due to a stretched customer. As a
result, the already thin restaurant margins may be cut in half over the next
year as declining sales and increasing costs create the perfect storm. (DRI’s recent results are an example of this
pressure.)
Last year, Realty Income purchased the land from Ryan’s
Restaurants, helping to fund Fortress’s take private transaction in late 2006. This is the largest transaction that Realty Income
has made to date, and it was timed at the peak of the market. The company, now know as Buffet Holdings,
operates 632 steak buffet restaurants.
Now, this is probably the worst place to be in the restaurant industry
given the above comments ~ a place that is required to keep plentiful food available
regardless of the amount of traffic in the store and has no price discretion. Any change in the quality of the food will
diminish the perceived value to the customer.
Since going private, Buffet’s financial results have been disappointing. The company retained a financial advisor recently,
and an ad hoc bond committee has been formed.
It is possible the company will choose to miss the 1/1/08 bond interest
payment and start the process for a prepackaged bankruptcy. With bank debt trading in the mid-eighties,
and bonds around 43, the market is obviously predicting a restructuring in the
near future. Realty Income, however, is
actually up 3.4% for the year.
Apparently the poor Buffet results that are well known in the debt
markets have not been passed along to the retail shareholders of Realty
Income.
Numbers
Note: FFO estimates
are taken from the JP Morgan model, preferred equity is based on the current
market value of the preferred shares.
The current valuation is not dirt cheap. Other triple net lease players (such as AFR
and LSE), trade at 8-10% dividend yields and around 10-12x FFO.
Stock
Price
|
$28.60
|
|
Shares
|
101.1
|
|
Equity
Value
|
$2,890.7
|
|
Cash
|
(8.9)
|
|
Preferred
Equity
|
404.1
|
|
Debt
|
930
|
|
|
$4,215.9
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend
yield
|
$1.64
|
5.7%
|
Book
value/share
|
$15.46
|
1.85x
|
2007E FFO
|
$1.89
|
15.1x
|
2008E FFO
|
$1.97
|
14.5x
|
Below is a basic FFO calculation for the last couple of
years. 2007 estimates are from a JP
Morgan Model. Note that other than
Interest and D&A, there are minimal expenses. G&A for 2006 is only $17.5 mm and there
is about $5 mm of other expenses. The effective EBITDA margin of these
operations is extremely high ~ consistent with the triple net lease model
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007E
|
Revenues
|
$197,032
|
$240,265
|
$296,489
|
Costs
|
107,637
|
134,073
|
167,211
|
Operating
Income
|
$89,395
|
$106,192
|
$129,278
|
Less:
Preferred Dividends
|
9,404
|
11,363
|
24,252
|
Earnings
before Real Estate gains
|
$79,991
|
$94,829
|
$105,025
|
Real
Estate acquire for resale
|
2,781
|
1,402
|
10,567
|
Real
Estate acquire for investment
|
6,943
|
3,188
|
1,836
|
Net
Income to Common
|
$89,715
|
$99,419
|
$117,428
|
|
|
|
|
FFO Calculation
|
|
|
|
Plus:
D&A
|
$46,664
|
$59,607
|
$76,130
|
Less:
Real estate gains, etc
|
(6,732)
|
(3,227)
|
(3,414)
|
FFO
|
$129,647
|
$155,799
|
$190,144
|
FFO/share
|
$1.62
|
$1.73
|
$1.89
|
Below is a basic example demonstrating the FFO leverage in
the event that Buffet’s files for bankruptcy and chooses to reject ½ of the
leases that are held by Realty Income.
I’ve assumed that no real estate transactions occur in the next year,
which is simplistic, but I have not assumed any additional delinquencies, which
given the current environment is definitely conservative.
Revenues
|
$296,489
|
Loss of
50% of Buffet revenues
|
(22,237)
|
PF
Revenues
|
$274,252
|
Costs
|
(167,211)
|
Preferred
Dividends
|
(24,252)
|
NI to
common
|
$82,789
|
Plus:
D&A
|
$76,130
|
FFO
|
$158,919
|
FFO/share
|
$1.57
|
As you can see, with just ½ of the Buffet leases rejected,
Realty Income will no longer be able to cover its dividend through FFO. It seems unlikely that the stock will
continue to be at a 5.7% dividend yield and close to two times book in that
event. The preferred equity is already trading
with a yield greater than 8%, presumably in response to these credit
concerns. More realistically, I believe the stock should
trade at around a 12x PF FFO level, which is approximately the NAV under the
current market conditions. That would
give you a stock of $19, 35% below the current level.
Risk
-
occupancy declines are hidden by asset growth
-
lack of response to bad news given retail shareholder
base
-
GE buys it. They
have purchased two triple net lease restaurant operations in the past five
years; but, given the other opportunities for GE finance, I find it unlikely
they will allocate more capital today to this area.