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6/10/23 11:46AM
Updated Thoughts?
Any view here in light of equity performance last 18 months?. Beverage restructuring creates noise but also allows them to shed lower quality and deeply cyclical assets, simplify the business to focus on the quality... login to read the rest
That's right, at least on the resin piece. The problem with this stock, this year, has been that with a 4 month resin pass-through, if prices of resin kept rising into September (which they did, thanks to... login to read the rest
If the company really does have pass-throughs for a lot of their resin exposure and ultimately will get price through with customers to cover the inflation they and every other company on the planet is... login to read the rest
Hey avi, thanks for the idea. Clearly, the recent quarter was disappointing with a big revision on 2021 numbers. Hard to argue 2021 guidance is conservative given that management's forecasts have Foodservice demand returning in 2H2021.... login to read the rest
aviclara181, we haven't spoke to the company so I wonder if you know why SG&A increased $75m in 2019 compared to 2018. I'd expect the company to have a flat or even declining SG&A since... login to read the rest
What about PFL (owning 77% of out shares) selling pressure going forward? I know you mention you don't know what they will do, so just wondering if you have any updated thoughts since you wrote
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Any idea why stock price weak?
16
I meant to check - presumably the 120 day pass-through lag means that in a deflating resin price environment they should see a GM tailwind - right? Thanks
We rely on the sellside to send us the IHS pricing. They don't provide an exact breakdown of the grades, but here is Baird's best guess on PTVE vs peers:
One word: Resin.
Resin prices have risen all year, but after a few flat months, it starting rising again in late December and continuing into January. This is a headwind of ~$30M in Q1, but after... login to read the rest
Thanks for the question. Your read is correct, but the truth is more nuanced.
The description in the S-1:
"Our current business comprises our Pactiv business and our Evergreen business, which were operated separately until 2019, when they were... login to read the rest
Hi aviclara, it's my read of the S-1 that the merger here was effectuated at the same time or just before the IPO - if so, is it quite a lot (too much?) of operational... login to read the rest
1) yes. It was to delever. Rank did not sell any stock.
2) it was during a period with many broken deals. Only high growth stocks were in demand and ptve had 3 years of declining... login to read the rest
The original price talk was over $20 and typical ipo's go up immediately. In this instance, it priced below, broke the lowered price and has only recently recovered. I consider that a poor ipo process.
If an IPO trades down on day 1 but is up 30% over the next 3 months, is that really a "broken IPO"?
Would love to get myself a bunch of them broken IPOs into my
Don’t mind at all, happy to help.
SLGN and BERY are probably the most similar in the Foodservice / Food Merchandising segments, while GPK is the most similar in Beverage - however none are perfect comps.
We... login to read the rest
Thanks for that, that's helpful. A few more if you don't mind.
1) within the publicly traded packaging universe, who do you think comps most closely to PTVE?
2) is there any listed company that could make... login to read the rest
virtualodin, Thanks for the questions.
Perhaps it would be best to include historic data they provided in the S-1:
For Foodservice:
For Food Merchandising:
For Beverage Merchandising:
Our perspective: These numbers feel generally accurate to us, with the exception of... login to read the rest
Thanks for this. Definitely looks cheap. Couple of Qs
Do you have a sense for what organic growth has looked like over a longer time period for the busniess? I know it's hard given the merger... login to read the rest
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