NORTH AMERICAN CONST GRP LTD NOA.
October 18, 2019 - 1:19pm EST by
member
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| Price: | 14.00 | EPS | 1.75 | 2.1 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 25 | P/E | 8 | 6.7 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 354 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 392 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 746 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| 52 | |
does anyone have any thoughts on buying HD and tendering the shares. It seems there's an arb opportunity since hd is trading at $37 and the tender is a dutch auction with a price between... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
Yes, great news.
I thought they would go to $20 BN (as mentioned below), but certainly happy to see $22.5 BN. Clearly Relational was very helpful here.
Nice to see some financial leverage added to the | |
| 50 | |
Great news Tdylan. With this recapitalization they will reduce their share count by 30% and we will have even more leverage to the anticipated retail turnaround.
The Home Depot Announces Agreement to Sell... login to read the rest | |
| 49 | |
Thomas-
Thanks for the superb questions. It would be much easier to discuss with some discourse over time, but let me at least try to answer each of them briefly here:
1) Do you believe they... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
Tdylan, thanks for your thougts on the name. I have read several reports that say $4 of earnings power in 2009/2010 as the company divests HD Supply, uses the proceeds to buy back stock,... login to read the rest | |
| 47 | |
Sure thing.
It is difficult at this point to have a razor sharp view on the underlying earnings power of the business.
On the one hand, it was clear that HD was underspending on in-store personnel, so... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
tdlayn, could you give us an update as to your current thinking regarding the company. What are your thoughts on the recently released earnings numbers? Thanks | |
| 43 | |
Will-
Pman is correct on the source.
(Thanks Keith)
| |
| 42 | |
Here is some census data that I found which may be helpful to you
http://www.census.gov/const/c50_curr.pdf
http://www.census.gov/const/C50/histtab2.pdf
http://www.census.gov/const/C50/histtab2new.pdf
http://www.census.gov/const/C50/histtab1.pdf | |
| 41 | |
tdylan - could you provide a source for the 40 year market size data for residential improvements and repairs you referenced in your write-up? Thx! | |
| 40 | |
Fair point. I wasn't trying to provide "the" answer just broadly addressing the point of how so few stores can be worth so much. I am no expert either but FWIW many retail oriented REITs... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
I'm no expert but a cap rate of 5% to 6% seems a bit low to me. As an owner you can't get a morgage and a neutral carry, which means you'd have to be... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
say $15/ sq. ft per year in gross rent for the owned property cap'd at 5-6% gets you to around $50bn in asset value... 2000 stores, but they're huge stores. $1.5mn per store in rent | |
| 36 | |
The comment was made a couple of years ago at an investor presentation.
With respect to current real estate value, the only public statement I know of this year from HD is that the... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
regarding a previous post on real estate, you mentioned management once indicated home depot's real estate was worth $50 -$60 billion. can you tell us when the comment was made and if they provided | |
| 33 | |
Dylan
Thanks for elaborating, that was certainly helpful. I've been playing around with different models of assessing the relative attractiveness of common vs. options for undervalued companies so your comments in the write up resonated. I | |
| 32 | |
Thanks Tarheel.
On the latter question (ie on why HD's business is well suited for long term LEAPS), my view is that HD is a very well positioned and well managed business in a large and... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
Yes, there is a reasonably close correlation between homes sold and Lowe's comps from 1999-2005 (less for longer periods), though there is not a close correlation at all for Home Depot. I do not... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
I heard a short idea presentation on Lowes yesterday from someone who argued that there is a high correlation between total homes sold (new and resales) and Lowes' annual comp store sales. I am... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
yes, for some years if you shift HI spending out a year, the R squared goes up, for others, it goes down.
All in all, the net effect is negligible and there is very little correlation | |
| 26 | |
time will tell... | |
| 25 | |
dbh-
you are correct to point that out. it should read $62 EBITDA / selling sq ft, as opposed to total sq ft - thanks for catching that. | |
| 23 | |
I wanted to hold off on your idea before I finished look at it, so if you don't mind here are a couple late questions:
*you said, "At a minimum, the acquisitions which the company has... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
I agree that the way Nardelli handled the shareholder meeting was atrocious. I also agree that although mgmt is A+ operationally, they have a long way to go in becoming "shareholder-friendly".
I do think though... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
Roark - you raise some excellent questions, and yes, location, density, store age and scale/buying power all help to account for the differences in productivity/growth.
If I were to own 50 stocks, or even 25, I... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
How much more do you like HD than LOW's at recent prices? HD is trading at about 11X consensus NTM and LOW's is at about 13X. Both own the overwhelming majority of their... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Roark - You are right to ask about comparisons to the UK market.
Though I do believe history has a habit of repeating itself, there are several reasons why the history and market structure... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Thanks for the writeup. You pointed to prior periods of residential improvement strength in the face of a decline in housing starts as reason to question Home Depot's vulnerability to a downturn in the... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
...so it's conceivable that HD's market cap is not much higher than the value of its R/E. That's interesting thanks. (and congratulations). | |
| 14 | |
Yes, Home Depot owns 87% of its stores and over 65% of the land on which its stores reside.
Management has stated in the past that their estimate of HD's real estate value is approximately $50-60 | |