NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY PRTNRS NOA.
August 11, 2017 - 10:14am EST by
member
| 2017 | 2018 | ||||||
| Price: | 3.90 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 29 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 113 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 70 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 183 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 58 | |
Thanks. These guys have to be getting crazy rates or combining equipment with services and marking up the services to really profitable rates. | |
| 56 | |
Does anyone know how these get such high $ utilization, almost 70% in 2022. It trended up from 50% in 2016. Most of the comps & comparables are at best in the upper 50% range. | |
| 55 | |
the management team here is pretty good.
they have been able to turn a mediocre business into a pretty decent equity return (and company). | |
| 52 | |
perhaps woolly has more color but the stock has doubled in the past 10 weeks. obviously they have done 2 really nice things during that time period but perhaps some people are just taking some... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
Anyone have insights on today's drop? | |
| 50 | |
sure - i guess the big differences are the shares outsanding. 28mm is the right number. with the converts it's up to 32 (but debt is reduced by 40mm). | |
| 48 | |
your math is off on the 6x in my opinion. i would get 16.50 when i plug it in (and assume a bunch of debt paydown).
still a pretty good return. i wouldn't count on it... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
my 150-160 number might be low actually. could be more like 170mm CAD.
this should lead to a re-rating also as they basically have taken a huge competitor out of the market. | |
| 45 | |
wooley 1 spike 0
looks like not only did they win some Aecon business they basically took aecon out of the market. hugely positive.
i think 150-160 CAD EBITDA is possible next year and north of $2 | |
| 43 | |
woolly - i am still long some shares which i highlighted. i like the company alot. however a few points
1) - the stock is up 100% this year not 50%.
2) new oil sands projects -... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
thank you very much. we still like the company and the stock and the management team. that being said the stock has moved up a fair bit (150%) since our write up about 13 months... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
Great call | |
| 38 | |
so my numbers were roughly in-line with what the company stated on the call.
looks like 14mm of ebitda. my view from the call and also conversations with them about this deal is that they believe... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
looks like NOA did a deal. a really nice one it appears but the call is tomorrow and we can get more information. Diversifies out of oil sands a bit, accretive to cash flow and... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
the news i see is a new CFO - and he's interesting that he's got a very broad experience. the catalysts i see in the next few months haven't changed - share repurchase announcement, new... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
we had a call with the company recently. A few small nuggets of information but nothing earth shattering.
1) they still want to go ahead with a share buyback authorization but given that volume was slow... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
NOA reported another really great quarter. Revenues were approx 80mm CAD with expectations of 68mm. EBITDA was also significantlly higher at 15mm versus consensus of 9mm. We expected okay results but these were even better... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
on more positive news - the company was able to get another significant award for a term contract. we expect all 4 major oil sands players to provide NOA with this type of business in... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Due to a power outage the Syncrude facility has been shut down. Initial estimates were for this to be down for approximately a month but it appears that this might be slightly longer. We expect... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
a few weeks ago NOA was able to win another contract, this one over 3 years. it is my understanding that they have been performing the work already this year so this won't be new... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
hi Fenkell -
i meant him hitting the $1CAD number in 2019.. that seems hard to do. i think they can hit it in 2020. He doesn't put that out lightly in my view. Cash flow... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
woolly - i do love your enthusiasm. a few points:
1) the $1 target was in CAD, not USD. i think they hit $1 in USD cash flow in 2019 or come very close. CAD $1... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
NOA reported earnings this week and the results were outstanding. in CAD EBITDA was $39mm versus around $31mm for consensus. Revenues also significantly beat results. It's clear my 55mm (USD) EBITDA number for 2018 is... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
A bit of news since the original write up. Oil has grinded higher and that's helped a bit on valuations.
the company has performed well - just under 50mm of USD ebitda for 2017. Language on... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
Hi Fenkell -
thanks very much for the comments/thoughts from the meeting.
happy that martin cleared up the market share stuff for you - i hadn't heard about market share losses like you had said.
i plan on... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
looks like the quarter wasn't as bad as expected and okay for the most part. lots of positives - seems like they are expecting more contract wins and a decent winter/summer work schedule. they bought... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
a couple of sell side guys in canada have similar price targets. i think (and hope) your FCF numbers are low. Not too much (10 cents CAD FCF is like $2.4mm USD) Woolly18 is more... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
my understanding is that they think folks want to hear about their diversification strategies so maybe that's why they talked about it.
i'd like them to get the august buyback done in 2017 and then execute... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
can you elaborate on "weak" comment - was interest in the name weak or did they come across as "weak". in my conversations with them recently (last few months) they seem to be excited about... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
thanks for the info Woolly.
I'd prefer them to finish the share repurchase authorization before they go out on the road! I am surprised they can even get an audience the volume traded here is quite | |