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AUTHOR
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10/17/18 10:55AM
Trump and Infrastructure Headlines vs Weather / Cycle
What will win out over the next few months. It seems like Trump and crew are going to be uber focused on an infrastructure bill post mid-terms. On the other hand, there is weather and... login to read the rest
yes marginal positive - shows up in magnesia specialties business which is ~10% of EBITDA. Great business but doesn't really grow, just steady FCF. ~40% of that sells to steel so is a +ve is... login to read the rest
Jso, any thoughts on the tariffs, whether specifically regarding steel or more generally on the risk
I know they produce dolomitic lime for the steel and mining industry, so I thought they might benefit from higher steel prices, but would love to read your thoughts.
Curious if you've thought about relative attractiviness of the three names given (1) headline PEs, (2) differing state exposures & thus upside to normalized volumes and (3) differing mix of upstream vs downstream gross profits?
Re: Sorry if this is a duplicate message. I tried to post a few moments ago but don't see it.
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Separately, the stock was +2.7% yesterday and -2.7% today. I don't really think of that as "getting crushed" but I guess that's the advantage of not running with 500% gross exposure perhaps?
Re: Sorry if this is a duplicate message. I tried to post a few moments ago but don't see it.
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I think investors are missing the pivot management made starting in Q3 to make sure they set guidance they can beat in any scenario given the stock had two years of chronic negative estimate revisions... login to read the rest
Sorry if this is a duplicate message. I tried to post a few moments ago but don't see it.
JSO (or anyone else), what do you make of what is going on with the stock (other than it is disappointing). I know 2018 earnings guidance was a little light (at least that was my read),... login to read the rest
Jso, sorry to ask for an update so quickly, but what do you make of the price action post earnings (other than it is disappointing)? I see Suntrust reduced 2018 estimates, but it didn't seem
The industry raises price in nominal terms 5% per year and they did that with volumes falling 50% post the financial crisis. That’s all well documented and will be supported by channel checks. They have... login to read the rest
Thanks for the explanation, interesting points around the dilution of the price increases.
I tried to go back and find some data to stand up the +5% through the cycle price increases. If you look at... login to read the rest
To appreciate the pricing power of an aggregate mine you have to take it down to unit economics.
A unit of ready mix concrete is 2/3 aggregates and 1/3 cement. Aggregates are $13.50/ton at the... login to read the rest
Thanks for the useful debate around pricing, the question mrmgr asked is the key point that's also holding me back on these names
You wrote -
"The upper limit is the transportation of the next guy who... login to read the rest
We own some FRPH which owns a Aggregate business that sits on 15,000 acres of land that has valuable second life as RE development, landfills, reservoirs etc. We've grown to love the business. There's a... login to read the rest
What is the upper limit on pricing here? I get that this is low value-to-weight and that MLM probably has local monopolies in many/most of its markets. But at what point do you induce new... login to read the rest
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