BLYTH INC BTH
October 24, 2011 - 10:11am EST by
member
| 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
| Price: | 56.31 | EPS | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 8 | P/E | 0.0x | 0.0x | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 467 | P/FCF | 0.0x | 0.0x | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | -109 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 367 | TEV/EBIT | 0.0x | 0.0x | |||
- BLYTH INC BTH 05/02/2012
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 58 | |
hb190-- accounting for th build in cash since your write-up almost one year ago, we're pretty close to being back to the price of your writeup. Just wondering your thoughts on this name at this | |
| 57 | |
I should clarify question 5 actually. I get that ViSalus prices products between say $50-$300 (http://visalus.com/docs/corporate/D1053US_BBVCustomerApp.pdf). What I doubt that there are one million Americans paying ~$175 for a period of 6 months to buy... login to read the rest | |
| 56 | |
1) Why is Nick Sarnicola (one of the founders) over 50% of ViSalus sales? According to a January 2010 press release, he only joined the distributor ranks then. http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/01/prweb3436074.htm How is one guy's pyramid over half... login to read the rest | |
| 55 | |
I know nothing about Einhorn's thesis beyond having read the HLF transcript. Perhaps others know more. I don't know HLF that well, but will provide some BTH comments that may be relevant to read-throughs.
Einhorn seemed... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
2012 FCF guidance is nearly $7/sh. Year end net cash of $16/sh. Stock is trading at about 8x forward FCF ex-the cash.
| |
| 50 | |
Devo791, I think your February revenue estimate is too low.
| |
| 48 | |
Based on comments on this and other BTH threads, it seems like there is some confusion among the investor community about BTH’s mid January press release, so I wanted to try to clarify a few... login to read the rest | |
| 47 | |
I would agree that 93mm in revenues for the last two months would be reason for a pop. The reasons I attributed the movement more to the restricted stock issuance are that a) the aligned... login to read the rest | |
| 45 | |
I disagree the stock was up on the 231mm revenue number. The stock was up b/c the three founders took payment in restricted BTH stock and are now much better aligned with BTH shareholders for... login to read the rest | |
| 43 | |
Yes, sustainability is an interesting question.
One thing I would point out is that HLF's recent success has been driven by the decision several years ago to morph into a weight-loss company (along with anti-aging). They... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
My understanding is that the remaining buyout will happen in two phases. The first phase should close around March / April of 2012, after Visalus C2011 results are finalized. Blyth will buy 15.2% of equity... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
The main issue I have is how can you know what the growth / sustainability of this product is given the inherent churn (NurtiSystem sales avg customer use is 10wks) / fickle consumer trends. To... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
Got it, thanks… Do you know how the buy-out of the remaining Visalus equity works?
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| 39 | |
Sure.
Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest was $271k for the quarter. That represents earnings on 42.5% of Visalus. Total earnings = 0.271 / 0.425 = 638k. Key assumption is 35% tax rate, which hasn't been... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
Sry, what my question should have said was the $8.3mm EBIT or 11.3% margin... | |
| 37 | |
Can someone please explain the formula for the price to acquire the remaining VisSalus equity? How is the $163.2mm number from the 10-Q derived? Thanks…
| |
| 36 | |
Thanks conway - can you walk through how you got to that 11.3mm EBIT number? thanks... | |
| 35 | |
The Visalus sales were 73.2mm vs 40.6mm last quarter. In trying to understand why the stock is weak, I would guess that this number may have been slightly light relative to what some people were... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
Hb190,
Does the new guidance imply a faster decline in ParyLite than expected?
In other words, why is the stock down so much today when it sounds as though Visalus is doing quite well?
Thanks | |
| 33 | |
Visalus has a great track record of innovations. Here are a few of the best:
-- 3 for free / disappearing autoship: the number one reason customers and distributors drop out of MLM is that they... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
mjw, no one knows exactly what margins are, but the argument is that a) in steady state there is no structural reason why they should be significantly different from peers with a similar product mix,... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
absolute sense
do all protein shakes have that much aspartame in it?
if you drink a lot of protein shakes that is one thing, i don't, and i would not be able to stick with these for | |
| 27 | |
heffer, are you comparing the taste to any other protein shake, or talking about it in an aboslute sense?
I drink the shakes and think they are very comparable to any other protein I've ever tried | |
| 25 | |
I happen to like the taste of the shakes and the office is down over 30 lbs on them, but my wife thinks they suck, too, so I will not ascribe ill motives to those... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
Your assumption that gross margin is the same as Partylite is directly contradicted by the company in its 2010 10-K:
The gross profit margin increased from 54.8% in fiscal 2010 to 55.5% in fiscal 2011 principally... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
i am drinking a shake right now and it tastes like crap. plus it was $50 for a 1 1/2 pound bag of protein powder that i think would be $15-20 at a GNC.
we have... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
On that video, I believe Blake was talking about below industry margins when it came to selling expense (i.e. commissions), which is what was of interest to the group. Visalus pays 55% of revenues as... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
One unfortunate thing about VIC is that some members feel entitled to comment even though they know literally *nothing* about the product.
Visalus is not a neutraceutical. It is a low-calorie protein shake similar to any... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
BTH probably isn't something I'd invest in, because the potential volatility of the business model isn't something that helps me sleep at night. That volatility can work to the upside, and it can work to... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
Have there ever been fads (even those that seemed far less potentially sustainable) than this that wall st didn't have enough crazy people to bid up the price to high levels at least for a... login to read the rest | |