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AUTHOR
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17
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3/09/20 7:07PM
Update
Given what happened in the oil market today its worth examining the consequences on the potash market. Last time the potash market imploded, there was a strong correlation b/w the Ruble and the price of... login to read the rest
hi rookie thanks - afraid i havent recycled into any other ag shorts as this (SDF) was a pretty specific potash + balance sheet view for me. at the moment just too many other pressing
i still have a smaller short but given the lack of interest on the board and the huge move thus far i am closing this on VIC and exited the bulk of my short at... login to read the rest
seems to suggest they are leaning towards going ahead...despite Anglo/Sirius getting financed...
https://www.ft.com/content/e719cece-5269-11ea-8841-482eed0038b1
for what it's worth, I added to my short above 9. since the China inventory position is one of the major overhangs on potash,... login to read the rest
I've talked to industry participants on the potassium issue. But check this article as an example: https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-fertiliser-sirius/future-of-fertiliser-or-fantasy-uk-company-bets-on-new-mineral-idUSL6N0FS16H20130722
If they're willing to fund the project, it's structurally viable, and they're willing to sell at a loss, then it would
hi Teton - many thanks for the comments. I found this analysis from CRU - it seems to suggest polyhalite is quite similar to SOP in nutrient content. This certainly doesn't seem 1/3 the potassium... login to read the rest
Re: Re: Re: Anglo buying Sirius = more supply coming
8
You need 2.5x the amount of polyhalite to get the potassium equivalence of SOP. So on a potassium equivalent basis, polyhalite is more expensive than SOP. Polyhalite is also not very solulable. ICL owns the only... login to read the rest
yes. anyone who relies on the SOP > MOP premium, including CMP. But SDF is a similar/better trade bec they have a ton more leverage, and have worse legacy commodity potash assets. Also it is
https://www.ft.com/content/03093aae-31e8-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de
I did not think the Sirius project would get funded so i didnt speak about it in the writeup. If this goes ahead - and seems likely it will now if Anglo funds it -... login to read the rest
New BHP CEO -> higher probability Jansen goes ahead
Last week Mike Henry was named the new BHP CEO, due to take the post from Jan next year. He formerly ran the Australian operations of BHP (responsible for 80% of BHP EBIT); has been... login to read the rest
3Q update - another production cut, return to cash burn
SDF announced fairly lacklustre results this morning. Despite the ongoing (through most of 3Q) firm YoY prices, SDF burnt 131mm in FCF (mostly due to ongoing Bethune related capex). More importantly, they cut EBITDA guidance... login to read the rest
thanks. the equity is almost 100% free float, with no large investors of note (the largest disclosed are DB wealth management at 5.6%, then Dimensional at 3%. It is basically an open register.
Re the debt,... login to read the rest
last night Nutrien - the market leader in potash globally - cut their expectation for potash demand worldwide for 2019 to 64-65mt (though they estimate a quick rebound to 67-69mt next year). Of course they... login to read the rest
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