I recommend the purchase of common shares of Comcast (CMCSA.)With the shares at $34.57, I believe that this $1/./;'
ue = $56.25bn on 12/31/2020.This is before tax.This valuation may be conservative, since I am assuming that 2021 EBIT is 37% lower than 2019 levels.
c)Theme Parks - $1.75bn in EBIT in 2021, probably worth a 20x multiple before tax, or $35bn.(operating income may be conservative since no benefit is forecast from the new park being built in Florida and opening in 2023 and no benefit from the stake in Beijing theme park scheduled to open in 2021.)The company also sounded extremely optimistic on parks in the long run on the Q4 call.
d)Net debt on = 94.1bn (12/31/2019).(This excludes debt associated with the Bejing theme park that is consolidated fully on the balance sheet.)
e)Total = $472bn before tax and $354bn post tax or $77 per share.(I did not include the $5.8bn minimum value of the Hulu stake since it is largely offset by $5.166bn collateralized obligation, as well as $1.7bn in AirTouch stake due to immateriality.I also did not include other investments since they are not material to the thesis.)
a)Technology – while I do not believe that 5G is a threat, a new and disruptive technology is always a risk.
b)Regulation and government threat.There is always a chance that the government will implement Bernie Sanders ideas and either start regulating cable companies as utilities or engage in uneconomic overbuild.
c)Very deep recession that causes a material decline in the profitability of the core broadband business.
Good operating performance and resumption of share buy-backs in 2021.
I think that we have an opportunity to buy an exceptional business, which should survive the current pandemic and the associated recession/depression and compound value over time, at a very low price.
I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy. I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.
Decent performance in 2020 and excellent in 2021 as well as resumption of share buy-backs in 2021.