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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
19	member 1/25/24 10:57AM Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 18
1. Stock is at 11.50 or close to my base case. 2. You haven't had a change in the political administration. It's hard to see $20 under democratic control. It's possible under Trump, but that's a... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
18	member 1/24/24 1:10PM Re: Author Exit Recommendation 17
Hi bradfordst, I'd be interested to hear what led to your exit recommendation. Do you no longer see upside to $20/shr? view available tags
12	member 2/17/23 11:28AM Re: Re: 30%+ FCF yld 10
Agree. EBITDA maybe closer to $580 with Title 42, implying a 21% FCF yield. 1 view available tags
11	member 2/17/23 11:27AM Re: good FCF / real estate 10
Thanks. Helpful. Also wondering if there is any hidden value in their real estate, since they own the majority of their facilities. Do you factor this into your valuation? It seems that most sell-side analysts view available tags
10	member 2/17/23 10:52AM Re: 30%+ FCF yld 9
I don't reconcile with the 30% FCF yield. Their guidance is for $175-200M of FCF per year, which on $1.2B market cap is a 15-17% FCF yield. To be clear I still think that's a... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 2/14/23 3:34PM 30%+ FCF yld
Is this really trading above a 30% FCF yld? They guided below the Street for '23, but listening to the call it sounds like management is just being conservative. They do have a track record view available tags
6	member 9/07/22 11:46AM Re: Alternative use for real estate? 4
Turn it into a theme park? Just kidding. There is some fungibility in a lot of their facilities - their contracts are not with the "Federal Government" but with a specific federal agency, and same at... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
5	member 9/07/22 11:39AM Re: Downside bridge 1
You can see the detailed assumptions on page 25 of this cleansing presentation. The management team clearly did a bottoms up build and assumed conservative assumptions, so while that was their base case, it can 1 view available tags
4	member 9/07/22 10:22AM Alternative use for real estate?
Do you have any views on the potential for alternative use or redevlopment? TIA view available tags
3	member 9/07/22 10:07AM Re: Stock “floor” 2
As a former short who ended up making marginally negative PnL despite catching the dividend elimination, I'd long it rather than short it today if forced to decide at gunpoint. :D (I also vastly underappreciated the BI 1 view available tags
2	member 9/06/22 11:10PM Stock “floor”
To further defend my point that $7/share is the downside here - COVID was a perfect storm for GEO, with prisons being emptied to 50% capacity to help reduce spread, Biden getting elected, and a... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 9/06/22 8:15PM Downside bridge
Thank you for the interesting idea. Would you mind sharing the assumptions behind your downside scenario in which EBITDA decreases from $523M to $411M by 2024? view available tags

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			2022	2023
Price:	8.23	EPS	1.31	0
Shares Out. (in M):	124	P/E	6.2	0
Market Cap (in $M):	1,003	P/FCF	3.4	0
Net Debt (in $M):	2,057	EBIT	387	0
TEV (in $M):	3,060	TEV/EBIT	7.92	0

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