Friedmans Inc. FRDM
August 24, 2004 - 9:15am EST by
member
| 2004 | 2005 | ||||||
| Price: | 1.60 | EPS | |||||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 0 | P/E | |||||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 35 | P/FCF | |||||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | |||||
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Description
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| 37 | |
Net cash per share is $4.50. The stock is $7. The valuation is clearly ridiculous at these levels and I agree with your suggestion that the downside is extremely low and the upside... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
hawkeye,Seems HNR is now trading at about $3 net cash per share. It appears that there isn't much downside given the possible upside. Anything changed your view of this company?Thanks. | |
| 34 | |
Thanks for your questions.I think the Q2 earnings show that things are on track. The company has almost $5 in cash for a $9.25 stock. My asset values in the write-up have not... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
Hawkeye,Any comments on Q2 earnings?Any changes in your assessment of valuation?Are you comfortable that these are the right guys to run this business?Should mgmt sell the company (or take it private) given the incredible Venezuela... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
Answers to you questions:1) I agree that SG&A is too high for this company, but I don't believe it is going to fall anytime soon. They are spending on some of the exploratory projects.... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
Thanks for the questions.1) From $70 to $100 WTI oil, HNR pays a windfall tax of 50% of WTI less $70. So if WTI is $100, HNR owes $15 per barrel tax. They... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
Harvest received the petrodelta dividend this morning. This is great news as it was much higher than I expected - $58mm vs. $40mm. The company now has almost 50% of its market cap | |
| 26 | |
There was another insider buy at Harvest. This time by the general counsel. This marks the 4th insider buy in a week.
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| 25 | |
Fatman,
Unfortunately, I don't have any particularly useful insights on Amoruso or the Bartells. If I learn anything, I will post it.
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| 23 | |
The CEO and a director just bought $200k of stock each. | |
| 22 | |
Petrofalcon paid Anadarko $200 million. Anadarko had 2P reserves of 35.8mm barrels. However, 1/3 of those reserves go to the government in the the form of royalties. So, they really have 24mm... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
The Petrofalcon deal went for 4-6 dollars per BOE before royalties. In the conference call and in your writeup you are talking about 6-8 per BOE after royalties. Could you explain the distinction... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
Jim,
Thanks for the question. Petrodelta is not only self-funding, but it should generate excess cash (perhaps a considerable amount). The exact amount is unknown because it will depend on how much drilling they do.... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
I see from the Q that after 1Q they spent $4MM to acquire Gabon asset and they are talking about Indonesia and Gulf Coast U.S. being $20 million investments over time.
Is the Venezuela buildup self... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
Steve is retiring. He is not going anywhere else. There is nothing at all that gives me concern here. There is no aspect of the accounting that I can even think of... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Heffer -
Management has a very impressive exploration and recovery track record in Venezuela which hopefully tells us something about their abilities. But importantly, the VP of Ops has worked in senior roles at major oil... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Thanks for your question. I believe the Crystallex situation is very different from Harvest's. My understanding is that Crystallex was denied a permit, supposedly for environmental reasons. In contrast, Harvest is effectively... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
any thoughts on the cfo's resignation? | |
| 14 | |
does management have a good track record of finding/developing acreage outside of venezuela? if not, why aren't you worried that they will burn through all their cash developing these assets, which may have been | |
| 12 | |
Very interesting -- Kurt Nelson's purchase of 5,000 shares today seems to be the first open market purchase by management in more than two years (the most recent prior purchase seems to be James Edmiston | |
| 11 | |
For what it's worth, the former controller bought some shares today in the open market.
With regard to management's ownership - while I believe on an absolute basis, their ownership does not seem huge, I believe... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
1. The dividend will be declared in the coming weeks by the board of Petrodelta. The exact amount is not determined, but clearly Harvest has an estimate of how much cash they plan... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
hawkeye, thanks for the writeup
1) why is the dividend payable between $30-50m? if it's a payable that means the dividend has been declared, so how could there be such a wide range? shouldnt... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
The lack of insider buying IS a disconnect. But it's not enough to destroy the thesis, in my view. If insiders were selling, that would be different. Also, the fact that the company has bought... login to read the rest | |
| 6 | |
Thanks for your question. I agree the Raymond James analysis was terribly poor.
Harvest is owed money from Petrodelta for operations from 2006-today. Petrodelta has been operating and building up cash. Now that... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
if mgmt is frustrated by how cheap the stock is, why do they own so little of the company (~1%) and not buy on the open market? | |
| 4 | |
For those interested in doing more research, here are a couple of things I found helpful in getting my arms around this situation:
1) Harvest's April 8th presentation at IPAA Oil & Gas Symposium in New... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
Hawkeye, interesting post. The investment thesis seems to have changed over the past few years, but I tend to agree with your major points. The recent Raymond James analysis was frankly a little... login to read the rest | |
| 2 | |
THanks for your questions.
On the first question, I do not think expropriation makes any sense because it would likely lead to severe production declines in the fields, which is not in Venezuela's interest.... login to read the rest | |
| 1 | |
I looked at this a few years ago:
1.) Given Chavez is basically a psycho, dont you think the chance of complete expropriation is much higher than you represent? As their production falls they will... login to read the rest | |