FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV FCAU
October 31, 2016 - 9:21pm EST by
member
| 2016 | 2017 | ||||||
| Price: | 6.50 | EPS | 1.6 | 2.4 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 1,504 | P/E | 4.1 | 2.7 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 9,776 | P/FCF | 9 | 4.1 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 4,588 | EBIT | 6,500 | 7,450 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 14,364 | TEV/EBIT | 2.9 | 1.9 | |||
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| 34 | |
Seems like a decent place to park. Upside on favorable deal and put option at current mark in worst case scenario. Anybody still involved in this one? | |
| 33 | |
What about the sponsor warrants for PSH? I don't believe its clear, but these may just stay with "remainco"? | |
| 32 | |
PSTH is launching an exchange offer for the warrants. Exchange ratio based on the below table (page 166 of the S-1):
The Exchange Offer is happening before the UMG Redemption date, so you can exchange and... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
On valuing the labels' royalty catalogs in "run-off":
Has anyone seen high fidelity data % of music streams listening = f(vintage year of song) ?
I once did this run-off exercise for VIV 5 years ago based... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
Thank you for the thoughtful response. | |
| 28 | |
I don't know. My view is that it is too early in the transition to streaming to know if record label moat is eroding, or is the services that the labels provide are just changing... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Ackman is now a tech bro, financial structuring division. Good to see.
I think I slept through the class in business school on Tontards and Diamond Apes. Maybe it's in the upcoming 7th edition of Security | |
| 26 | |
WinBrun or others. Since this is a live discussion I am curious if anyone has a strong view of the durability of the record label business model?
Clearly right now streaming is a huge tailwind. And... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
I am not close to UMG--but your numbers seem right (I have owned WMG and there is somewhat of a similar financial profile albeit lower margins (part of the opportunity). All of the investment is... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
WinBrun, any thoughts on normalized content spend? Numbers a bit higher past two years, if they revert back lower the FCF is actually pretty solid on this.
Growth has actually been solid. +8.2% constant currency in... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
definitely not talking about UMG competing with Spot. well past that. UMG actually has been one of the more collaborative labels re promotion and shifting marketing spend to Spot. The streaming revenue is the core... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
He had a similar quote earlier when talking about holders in PSTH getting a free right to his next SPAC. In today's announcement, they said holders who don't tender for cash (basically redeeming) will get... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
Is Ackman talking about UMG competing with SPOT or something else?
@BillAckman - "Don't forget that we have the technology."
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1400601886470938624
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| 20 | |
No fish these days when you play at the $5bn high-roller tables, unfortunately | |
| 19 | |
tax leakage aside, why would Ackman expect that when this lists - in Europe, to debut to European fund managers - it will garner a massive premium? now all those fund managers who may have... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
I tend to agree, but a disadvantage of doing this through Vivendi is the taxation, as the spin off will be considered a dividend in kind. Bluebell has been quite vocal about this
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/activist-fund-bluebell-calls-vivendi-sweeten-universal-spin-off-2021-05-25/ | |
| 17 | |
So buying PSTH gives you the option to participate in the UMG listing a few months before its planned listing on Euronext... Isn't that exactly what buying Vivendi shares today gets you? But then without | |
| 13 | |
Didn't he applaud the credit card companies who banned it? | |
| 11 | |
NYP reporting PSTH could take 20% stake in Bloomberg valuing business at $60B. Story says they are doing $10B of revenue, giving it a 6x sales multiple. Assuming this is true, that screens as a very attractive... login to read the rest | |
| 9 | |
Ok, that's insane... but here the common has 2/9th warrant too. Weird stuff. | |
| 8 | |
Some people will buy the warrants on a re-rate thesis and there's the time value aspect but nonetheless, feels like an anticipation thing more than anything. If you wanted to see crazy....at one point, the DKNG Warrants | |
| 7 | |
Yeah but on top of that the upside is capped right :S | |
| 6 | |
I thought they seemed crazy...Wts overpriced that is. Wondered if I was missing something, or market is anticipating something (which might not happen)...Dunno? Odd. | |
| 5 | |
I simply cannot believe what the warrants are trading at.
$8 warrants w/ a $23 strike for a company that is literally $20/cash/share and Bill Ackman looking to deploy it. Wild times. | |
| 2 | |
I think the ability to land a great deal is very good. If this had typical economics attached to it, then no I don't think the chances are good. I think there is a material change in how... login to read the rest | |
| 1 | |
What are you thoughts on the ability to actually land a deal. My worry is that my fishing in this pond, the targets are much more sophisticated and therefore likely to go the IPO route.... login to read the rest | |