2017 | 2018 | ||||||
Price: | 37.00 | EPS | 3.4 | 4.55 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 52 | P/E | 10 | 8 | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 1,924 | P/FCF | 12.0 | 10.0 | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 91 | EBIT | 285 | 341 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 2,015 | TEV/EBIT | 7.0 | 6.0 |
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Name | Est P/E Current Yr | P/E Ratio FY2 | EV/EBITDA FY1 | EV/EBITDA FY2 | P/Book | EV/Sales FY1 | P/FCF | Market Cap |
CONTINENTAL AG | 13.2 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 23.1 | 50337.9 |
DENSO CORP | 15.4 | 14.4 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 30.2 | 40270.7 |
BRIDGESTONE CORP | 13.1 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | #N/A N/A | 37235.1 |
DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC | 15.4 | 14.1 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 23.5 | 27444.9 |
MICHELIN (CGDE) | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 30.9 | 26688.4 |
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 19694.6 |
VALEO SA | 14.3 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 17.1 | 17758.0 |
LEAR CORP | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 11.7 | 11695.4 |
BORGWARNER INC | 13.5 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 10570.0 |
FAURECIA | 13.5 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 11.1 | 9577.6 |
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO | 10.8 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 21.4 | 8240.2 |
CHENG SHIN RUBBER IND CO LTD | 18.4 | 14.9 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | #N/A N/A | 6505.1 |
HANKOOK TIRE CO LTD | 9.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 26.1 | 6343.2 |
NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ | 18.2 | 16.4 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 14.5 | 6021.6 |
SUMITOMO RUBBER INDUSTRIES | 12.5 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | #N/A N/A | 4810.8 |
MRF LTD | 20.6 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 71.6 | 4080.3 |
YOKOHAMA RUBBER CO LTD | 11.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | #N/A N/A | 3490.0 |
TENNECO INC | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 27.4 | 3167.7 |
TOYO TIRE & RUBBER CO LTD | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | #N/A N/A | 2804.1 |
COOPER-STANDARD HOLDING | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 15.0 | 1979.5 |
APOLLO TYRES LTD | 14.2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | #N/A N/A | 1950.4 |
COOPER TIRE & RUBBER | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | #N/A N/A | 1874.9 |
TOKAI RIKA CO LTD | 9.6 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | #N/A N/A | 1860.7 |
HYUNDAI WIA CORP | 11.8 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | #N/A N/A | 1455.0 |
NEXEN TIRE CORP | 8.8 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 41.4 | 1121.0 |
KUMHO TIRE CO INC | NA | 11.0 | 15.6 | 8.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | #N/A N/A | 693.3 |
AVERAGE | 12.5 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 24.5 | 9044.2 |
show sort by |
# | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
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62 | |
My best guess: DOE rumours and a twitter space | |
58 | |
katana, have you seen any news since a few weeks ago? Trying to understand whether this is just your typical Mr market going nuts or whether something ob substance has come up/changed.
| |
55 | |
lpartners- what's the back of the envelope math on a merger with TWM? despite having written up TWM years ago I've lost track of the story. It, too, looks highly levered, so I don't get how this would improve the balance sheet. How much could they get for the mid-stream assets? Thanks | |
51 | |
but they cannot get to maxSAF without the DoE and/or (probably and) a partial selldown of MRL. that partial selldown/IPO of MRL was predicated upon proving out the earnings power of MRL, standalone, with 'through-the-cycle' EBITDA of $1.2-$1.4 a gallon. no chance they print even half of that in the current market hence v difficult to see how they can sell a piece of MRL hence no pathway to deleveraging or getting to MaxSAF. more pertinently this mgmt team has made it clear they are price maximizers, i doubt they would even countenance taking a low/emergency print on partial MRL sale in the current mkt environment. theyre also more levered than they should have been at this point in the game - largely through management rolling the dice massively on MRL instead of selling down a larger piece earlier - and Trump election, at best, is a massive wildcard for anything touching renewables. they may well be able to sell performance brands (or may have to) but even that would be a massive pivot and obviously a desperate move to clear maturities. yes you probably get a big bounce if they get DoE over the line, but my eyes have fully opened on this one, i just dont think MRL is saleable (in part or whole) with the RD market in its current state, and that undeniably has created more problems for the company than I originally thought possible. | |
50 | |
one thing to keep in mind re: SAF opportunity is that they sell a lot of the SAF they make into Canada, and are fully reimbursed for the extra shipping cost. I wouldn't be surprised if they could sell it all to Canada | |
47 | |
there is bipartisan support in the senate: https://biodieselmagazine.com/articles/house-members-urge-epa-to-set-strong-2026-rfs-rvos-for-biomass-based-diesel-advanced-biofuels original source: https://cleanfuels.org/wp-content/uploads/24.6.11-Klobuchar-Grassley-RVO-Letter.pdf | |
44 | |
margins in renewable diesel and other green fuels are unusually depressed right now. Even though supply is coming offline, the situation persists. Regulators need to take action to restore balance. | |
43 | |
OUCH. A 28% drop since conversion day, in increased volumes; what they described as a "MEANINGFUL CATALYST" seems to have opened the exit gates , in the absence of truly moving news, or did I miss something? I get that everyday that passes without the forever imminent DOE loan is negative. But they still insisted on 10th July to call that an near term catalyst in their revised deck... I get that the chances of Trump being re-elected have increased, and that he could reneg of some of the IRA measures. But still. Just normalizing back to conversion prints is a +40% return from here. Anybody understands the dynamic here? I find it brutal. Curious to hear your refreshed thoughts.
| |
39 | |
re: private jets, that's a question I've been meaning to ask mgmt. I'll try to get back to you on that. As for the OTM calls, I'd say that's a good sign. That's also hardly his only equity exposure
| |
37 | |
I believe most of CLMT's current SAF production is coming from private jets, and MRL sits at the bottom of the cost curve for delivery to Portland/Seattle/Vancouver markets, so I'm not sure airline adoption matters as much as you're thinking. Also, with SPACs, the sponsors have a tremendous incentive to put out rosy projections because just getting the deal approved by shareholders means a big payday for them. I don't see that dynamic here. CLMT mgmt have bought a lot of units with their own cash on the open market - I think they really do believe the story. | |
30 | |
I thought a stocktwits response would be more like "i've done no work on this but it seems like a short because I don't like a slide in their deck; can someone do the work for me?", but to each their own! | |
26 | |
I'm not exactly sure of the answer, but I can tell you this: the CEO has said repeatedly that he expects all of MRL production to get sold within 100 miles of Puget Sound - so basically the markets of Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland. I doubt they'll sell much, if any, in CA. | |
25 | |
I believe you can get your CI pathway approved by CARB and MRL hasn't done that yet. They can operate under a generic approval, but I understand if you have a good pathway you'd want it approved as you'd benefit from a lower CI score. Is there a reason MRL hasn't done this? Has anyone asked mgmt? Am I off here? | |
24 | |
I would think MRL should trade at a discount to DAR, no? Obviously some puts/takes but I'd think DAR food business deserves higher multiple while MRL's pure-play renewable fuel exposure should get a premium to DAR's duel segment. | |
23 | |
I can give you UBS' reasoning; target was $17.50 and rating was Neutral when CLMT was trading at $14.53:"We are lowering 2023 adjusted EBITDA estimate $300.6M from $325M, to reflect slight miss in 3Q23 as well continued downtime at Montana Renewables in 4Q23. We estimate Montana Renewable hits run rate production of 12mb/d by Jan 2024. We are adjusting 2024 and 2025 estimates to reflect lower D4 RIN prices. We are lowering 2024 EEBITDA to $367M from $427M. We are lowering 2025E EBITDA to $371M from $423M." | |
21 | |
that seems about right. Specialty Products requires by far the largest amount. Performance Brands has historically been only a couple million per year. For MRL, the docs from the failed muni offering say 6m/year going to 11m/year in 2027. I think that's for the "base case" - ie not for MAX SAF scenario, and I suspect they're going MAX SAF. I'm not sure if this includes the asphalt biz, but under MAX SAF, asphalt production goes down to make room for more SAF | |
20 | |
I guess per the disclosures in Ks and Qs, looks like its around 2% of revenue | |
19 | |
what's your estimate of maintenance cap ex for CLMT after it finishes its upgrades? I glanced at other refiners, but they are all over the map and have different levels of growth investment. CVR was lowest I saw at around 2% of rev. Is 2% of rev a reasonable estimate for refining maintenance cap ex? | |
18 | |
Bugbee usually yolo'ed with short term options no? The fact that Todd is buying leaps makes it unique, but someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Either way, some big brass balls on Todd - nice to see him pointing to the fence like this. | |
17 | |
I've heard the name but not familiar. What's Bugbee's modus operandi? thx | |
4 | |
Is the ~8k you're referencing what they were doing while the steam was down, or what they'll do during the turnaround If the former, I heard a similar number (but it feels too high to me) if the later- feels very high to me | |
2 | |
I have a huge position and i just need people to stop teasing me with the conversion possibilities and DOE loan. I will believe them when I see it at this point. Obviously those are personal problems / somewhat in jest Actual Q: do you know the reduced throughput MRL operates while they do the turnaround / repair the stream drum? I've heard numbers all over the place. In the grand scheme, doens't matter.... but 3k vs 6k barrels makes a big difference in terms of covering overhead / providing a little delveveraging. | |
1 | |
look at Dar’s valuation |
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