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26	member 3/01/21 12:44PM Re: Author Exit Recommendation 25
TWO E's and D's were called by Two Harbours. 2 view available tags
23	member 4/06/20 10:03PM Re: MSR follow-up 21
A company like TWO would have to finance all servicing obligations (missing pmts) in connection with the delinquent loans and wouldn't be able to recover the advance or recognize ancillary revenue until the loan is... login to read the rest view available tags
22	member 4/06/20 4:49PM Interim Dividend Announcement
Announcing a common dividend at this point is a fairly declarative statement. I'm frankly surprised, but obviously this is excellent signalling for Two Harbor's confidence in their liquidity, and therefore very good news for the preferreds.... login to read the rest view available tags
21	member 4/06/20 4:40PM MSR follow-up
Just to be more specific on the previous question: Since they outsource their servicing, does the outsourcer immediately get more payment once a mortgage becomes deliquent? Do you have any idea how much more they pay view available tags
20	member 4/06/20 2:36PM MSR
Thanks for the write up. How do you think about the value of the MSRs now that many of these mortgages may go delinquent. My asusmption is the MSRs are worth less but just not sure... login to read the rest view available tags
19	member 4/05/20 9:17AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bankruptcy 18
Most pref are trading weak - wouldn't it be simpler to buy nly or cmo pref on down days? 1 view available tags
18	member 4/05/20 9:10AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bankruptcy 17
Hey ad17, big fan of your analyses and work in general, thanks for contributing to the thread. TWO also put out a press release on Friday, no mention of Lazard but their BV estimates haven't... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 4/03/20 4:19PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bankruptcy 16
InfrmtnOverflow, I was just writing this when I saw your comment; I agree with Piper's numbers but do think that we'll have lower than usual prepayments / refi activity in the next two months given social... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
16	member 4/03/20 3:21PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bankruptcy 15
A SandPiper piece also useful on this today: our best guess on peak forbearance levels are 8-10% for GSE loans and 10-15% for Ginnie loans. Mark Calabria, Director of the FHFA,recently stated he believes forbearance rates from... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
15	member 4/03/20 2:07PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Bankruptcy 14
Hi Compound. Wholeheartedly agree with your statement. The author addressed this pretty well in post 11, I think, so I was trying to guess at another reason for them to hire Lazard because presumably they... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
14	member 4/03/20 1:40PM Re: Re: Re: Bankruptcy 13
I think the risk is not the value of the MSRs, per se, but the fact that the MSR owner (TWO) has to front P&I for any non-payers, including potentially homeowners that are receiving forebearance.... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
13	member 4/03/20 12:02PM Re: Re: Bankruptcy 12
I noticed that as of year end about $450mm of MSRs were being funded by being pledged as collateral to a $300mm term credit facility. The term on the facility extends beyond one year, but... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 4/03/20 11:45AM Re: Bankruptcy 10
With $1.8bn in equity and only agency mortgages at 7.5x economic leverage on the asset side I'm really not sure how you can get to zero in the equity. I appreciate your comment on Lazard though... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
11	member 4/03/20 11:44AM Re: short interest 9
Onwers of MSRs have to front principal & interest (P&I) to Fannie and Freddie if the underlying borrowers go into forbearance. They have the option to do so for a limited amount of time. Most... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
7	member 4/02/20 9:52PM Re: Re: Re: Repo's 5
Hey rookie. Looks like we are looking at the same things. WD actually has $40bn of under the DUS. 92% of that is multifamily. 7% student housg and 1% senior housing with DSCRs around 1.4x and... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 4/02/20 9:28PM Re: Re: Re: Repo's 5
Rookie - apologies but I just wanted to clarify your question as it relates to TWO. Are you saying that TWO as an agency mortgage holder may have to depend on the first loss obligors... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 4/01/20 7:14PM Re: Repo's 3
Hi David. Thanks for the good questions, I think you're poking at the right. The repo is provided by RBC, Barclays and 22 other undisclosed counterparties. As of FY2019, the weighted average haircut on agency MBS... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
2	member 3/31/20 10:16PM Re: mREIT's 1
Thanks for the question. This is somewhat cursory but on the pure agency side AGNC and NLY are fine. AI seems to be making it to the other side as well somewhat surprisingly (they were pretty... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 3/31/20 8:36PM mREIT's
Thanks for a good idea. Do you have any opinion on which mREIT's don't survive? There are the Annaly's of the world which have essentially already been bailed out. Then there are the AG Mortgage's of... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2017	2018
Price:	46.11	EPS	2.05	2.28
Shares Out. (in M):	46	P/E	22.1	21.6
Market Cap (in $M):	2,135	P/FCF	22.1	21.6
Net Debt (in $M):	-306	EBIT	154	159
TEV (in $M):	1,875	TEV/EBIT	12.2	11.8
Borrow Cost:	General Collateral

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