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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
21	member 6/11/24 7:28AM Re: True Wind bids on Sun Corp 20
seems most likely they are forcing Sun Corp's hand re Celebrite. they own no shares currently in Sun Corp and, whilst I am sure they would be willing to acquire at 4400 and follow through,... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
20	member 6/10/24 1:42PM True Wind bids on Sun Corp
I'd be interested in what people think True Wind's motivation is here. Is it just to effectively acquire more CLBT at a cheaper price (they already have a sizeable stake)? Is it to force Sun view available tags
19	member 10/17/23 6:23PM Disruption from employees being called into duty
Any concerns on business disruption if a lot of their Israeli employee base gets called up into duty especially if this becomes a drawn out war? I think a lot if not the majority of... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 4/20/23 2:14PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Margins 16
I'd be surprised if they're outright shorts. My guess is someone is boxing it and doesn’t want to show sales. view available tags
16	member 4/20/23 1:58PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Margins 14
Also with regards to the short interest, we're talking about $10m short on $1bn market cap... view available tags
15	member 4/20/23 1:19PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Margins 14
There are over 500k local law enforcement officers and 60k state state, as compared to 13k federal. Maybe the efficiency will dip slightly to reflect lesser sales density, but the opportunity is massive enough that it... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 4/19/23 6:27PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Margins 13
I interpreted the answer that Norris gave in #8 as things are getting harder. 1. add the capacity necessary to access the long tail of smaller state and local police departments where much of the opportunity... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 4/19/23 4:55PM Re: Re: Re: Margins 12
How so? they have a large cohort of reps that are 1 year into the job working against a sales cycle that takes 18+ months. Regardless, top line is set to re-accelerate and will be biggest view available tags
12	member 4/19/23 1:31PM Re: Re: Margins 11
This all sounds like you should expect a slowdown in sales productivity and that they may have picked the low hanging fruit, and the low valuation (more than?) reflects this. view available tags
11	member 4/19/23 11:40AM Re: Margins 7
I think its reasonable to assume margins have troughed. Total OPEX costs grew less in 2022 in absolute dollars than they did in 2021. The biggest headwind to margins was reported revenue growth going from... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 4/19/23 9:33AM Re: TB 9
See slides 4 (Magnet deal) and 10 (comp software deals) https://s27.q4cdn.com/248443784/files/doc_presentation/2023/02/Magnet_Thoma-Bravo_Transaction-Overview-Merits.pdf view available tags
9	member 4/18/23 6:25PM TB
Do you know the multiples the Thoma deals went for? view available tags
8	member 4/17/23 11:49AM Re: Re: Re: Questions 7
According to the Company, the purpose of the sales force build out was to 1. add the capacity necessary to access the long tail of smaller state and local police departments where much of the... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 4/16/23 9:22PM Re: Re: Questions 6
Just took a quick look at Magnet, and it looks like they are still on a license model. Any idea why? If this is accurate, it would boost their FCF profile vs. CLBT's SaaS model. Any... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
6	member 4/16/23 1:28PM Re: Questions 5
Thanks for the questions Houdini, addressing in order: 1. CLBT's market share depends on how you look at their TAM - as a % of total estimated agency spend dedicated to digital evidence collection, CLBT's market... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
5	member 4/15/23 3:30PM Questions
Norris, Thanks for the idea. This is something we looked at in the past and have never quite gotten over the hump. A few questions below: What is CLBT's market share and what is the remaining white space... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
4	member 4/14/23 1:16PM Nice pitch
Nice writeup, we are also long and have written up Cellebrite previously- https://komradekapital.substack.com/p/cellebrite-di-nasdaqclbt In regards to Greyshift a few points to add: - >70% of mobile phones globally run on Android, Greyshift only offers a solution for iOS -... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
3	member 4/14/23 12:24PM Re: Re: Gray 2
Thanks Norris. My other take on the CLBT vs Gray debate is that the training/expense to get people up to speed on a platform is material, so switching costs are high so long as you... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 4/14/23 12:16PM Re: Gray 1
Similarly, we've done a handful of interviews with former federal and state/local law enforcement agents. The feedback we received was as far as ability to bypass locks/encryptions, Cellebrite and Grayshift were both great, with the... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2023	2024
Price:	5.77	EPS	0	0
Shares Out. (in M):	194	P/E	0	0
Market Cap (in $M):	1,115	P/FCF	0	0
Net Debt (in $M):	-206	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	910	TEV/EBIT	0	0

Description

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