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25	member 5/09/05 8:56PM re:liabilities
thanks for your questions 1) my minorities figure is an error - thanks for catching it. the 907 was for 2007 based on 2005 figures adjusted for expected appreciation in Ferrari over the next several... login to read the rest view available tags
24	member 5/09/05 8:52PM Convert Overhang
You are right the convert creates an overhang. But given 3 facts I don't believe this is a serious concern. (1) Some banks that do not intend to be participants in Fiat's shareholder... login to read the rest view available tags
23	member 5/09/05 4:41PM Convert Overhang
I see the answer to my own question in a previous question (who owns the Convert)...but fears about an overhang effect linger. Well foudned fears? Thanks again. view available tags
22	member 5/09/05 3:52PM Convert?
Mitch- Who holds the Convert? Is it possible the possibility of conversion of such a large issue acts as a "lid" on the shares until after October. Great write-up. Thank you. view available tags
21	member 5/09/05 1:24PM liabilities
Compelling idea and write up. Thank you. I've been through the company documents and have tied down most of your numbers other than the following. If you could provide any assistance, it... login to read the rest view available tags
20	member 5/08/05 5:13PM Re: Downside Scenario
Thanks for your question. I would focus on Q1 and Q2 in terms of near-term signals for progress in Chapter 1 of the turnaround (cost cutting). In terms of what to look for... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 5/06/05 10:12AM JPM Note
I would encourage interested readers to look at JPM's note on Fiat today. It is fairly on-point and helpful in understanding the investment case. view available tags
17	member 5/04/05 9:51AM Re: Questions
David - thanks for staying up so late to respond! Certainly an interesting day in the world of auto. Here are my basic thoughts in response to your post. 1-Yes, it is fairly incredible... login to read the rest view available tags
16	member 5/03/05 11:07PM Re: Questions
Mitch, Thanks for the response. That is impressive that the Italian banks are going to have to eat the convertendos at 10 euros. I was initially puzzled why anyone would want to convert @ 10 if... login to read the rest view available tags
15	member 5/03/05 8:19PM Hi David, Thanks for your q
Hi David, Thanks for your questions. 1. Convertendo - The convertendo is a €3 bn loan with a 6.5% coupon held by a consortium of Italian banks. The banks will convert in September 2005 their loan... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 5/03/05 5:31PM Question
Mitch, Great write-up and I am still working through whether it is a great idea or not. Here are my questions: 1. Convertendo - Can you provide some more details on these? Specifically, is 10 euros the... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 5/03/05 10:27AM Re: One last question (2)
Strike that his options don't mature until 2008 so he will be around for sure until then. view available tags
12	member 5/03/05 10:23AM Economic Sensitivity
1) How sensitive is your analysis to economic activity? Well, the company has not assumed any help from the economy in its forecasts, but the current Italian economy is worse than they had... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 5/03/05 10:05AM re: one last question
You are absolutely right -- the investment is predicated on his management, and the simple answer is, I would not recommend Fiat without him there. If he were to leave at a stage further... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 5/02/05 8:31PM one more question
Thanks for your quick response to my previous questions. I was just wondering, it seems that a big part of your thesis is hinged on Mr. Marchionne's skills. If he were (god forbid) to be... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 5/02/05 6:47PM Questions on Product Launches
Fiat will sells ~1.1 mm vehicles this year. The panda launched last year will sell between 100-150k vehicles annually. The Croma, being launched presently, is targeting about 70k in volumes (with breakeven at... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 5/02/05 6:23PM Thanks for your questions.
Thanks for your questions. In response to your first question, Sergio will look to achieve maximum value as quickly as possible, without emotional attachment to any asset. I am only familiar with the... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 5/02/05 5:59PM economic impact
1) How sensitive is your analysis to economic activity? 2) How sensitive is Fiat to raw material prices? 3) What are expectations for earnings on May 10th? Is there any specific reason to buy before their release? view available tags
6	member 5/02/05 5:47PM NOL's
Thanks for your question, it is an excellent one, and really drives to the point of how much leverage there is if Sergio can achieve his guidance. So few people believe Fiat capable of... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 5/02/05 5:34PM Questions
Couple of quick questions, 1) I was just wondering if you thought there was any chance this company might be broken up so that the SOP value could be quickly realized (or maybe do something... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 5/02/05 5:19PM NOL
view available tags
3	member 5/02/05 3:59PM NOL's
How are the NOL's valued on the balance sheet today? How much would they be worth if the company were to achieve its 2007 targets? Thank you. view available tags
2	member 5/02/05 1:38PM Question on product launches
Great idea, really contrarian. Could you please ellaborate on Fiat Auto's product launches. You mention that by the beginning of 2006, over 80% of Fiat's volumes will be turned over. That is taking into account view available tags
1	member 5/02/05 12:04PM Management Comp Scheme and Ins
I should mention that Mr. Marchionne has upside on 12mm options with a strike price of €6.53, 27% out of the money as of today's closing price. Additionally, he recently purchased 220k shares at view available tags

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			2013	2014
Price:	62.81	EPS	$2.41	$2.63
Shares Out. (in M):	161	P/E	25.4x	23.8x
Market Cap (in $M):	10,099	P/FCF	91.0x	na
Net Debt (in $M):	2,500	EBIT	575	621
TEV (in $M):	12,250	TEV/EBIT	21.0x	20.0x
Borrow Cost:	NA

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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