AFRICA OIL CORP AOI.
May 26, 2023 - 10:07am EST by
member
| 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Price: | 2.78 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 461 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 936 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | -158 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 778 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| 341 | |
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-top-coal-region-tells-mines-boost-output-immediately-sources-2021-10-08/
excuse my igonorance about any details below the headline (which is why im posting) but shouldnt this be printing money now? China facing massive shortage and is putting politics aside to ramp up imports from | |
| 339 | |
Maybe to be able to frustrate the Australians a little longer | |
| 338 | |
I know of no new news. Border was open for a few weeks in November. Now closed. | |
| 337 | |
Did this one wake up? | |
| 336 | |
Those DCM fees are pretty fat, especially when they refi $400mm every 2 years and have embedded derivatives | |
| 331 | |
Am I missing something from the operational update? They say they sold 1.00mt, about 77k per week, which would be impossible if jan/feb were as bad you feared. They cleared out some inventory as well.... login to read the rest | |
| 330 | |
I suppose the concern is that they are taking advantage of a high point in financial metrics to push out their profile. The current interest payments are linked to the seabourne coal price that is... login to read the rest | |
| 328 | |
MMC released their annual report and concurrently announced a tender and refi of their existing debt structure. It'll be interesting to see the terms of the new bonds. They'll be doing a roadshow in the | |
| 324 | |
Despite border issues, they were still able to sell 1mm tonnes of coal. You can see the inventory build in the mined/processed ratios and produced/sold ratio so they are sitting on some inventory going into... login to read the rest | |
| 321 | |
Who knows... Civil wars sometimes lead to unpredictable outcomes. I think either Khurelsukh or Enkhbold would support the mine. Just scary to see these guys suddenly have a substantial say in things...
https://www.facebook.com/MASS.TV.OFFICIAL/videos/204521133792984/ | |
| 320 | |
Are you saying the outcome of this MPP civil war may influence potential volumes more than the Dalai Lama thing? | |
| 319 | |
Situation is quite fluid. Last I heard is that they have ROM supplies to process and all staff except for wash plant are going on furlough starting Dec 1. Wash plant will operate until they... login to read the rest | |
| 317 | |
M. Thanks hkup, I was actually referring to some different news reported in Bloomberg and Australia which had no mention of Mongolia. Those articles talked about import bans becuase of current thermal stockpiles and winter... login to read the rest | |
| 316 | |
Thanks for the honest reply! I agree with you, by the way. I've never run a business at all, either a good or bad one, and I do feel like I'd be a much better... login to read the rest | |
| 315 | |
Every day of my life... haha
In 8 years, we've had 5 PMs and 7 governments. Looks like they may change the guard again. Remember, this isn't like the US where you change a few key... login to read the rest | |
| 312 | |
I'm reading some conflicting reports on China banning coal imports for the remainder of the year. Most news sites gloss over the important details, but my understanding is that 3 provinces have put restrictions on... login to read the rest | |
| 311 | |
Just to follow up, was told border is $163.50 today for washed HCC | |
| 310 | |
Q3 numbers showed sequential and annual improvements despite pretty weak volume during July as a result of flooding. We have a guy counting trucks as there's only 1 road to the border so it's possible... login to read the rest | |
| 309 | |
Q3 results came out this week as I'm sure you're aware. The numbers looked very good, if a little light relative to what your expectations were of 2mm. The one thing I thought was surprising... login to read the rest | |
| 307 | |
Thanks Hkup, always appreciate the updates every few weeks | |
| 305 | |
No word on the private gate. It's a Chinese decision right now. I think it probably happens, but not certain.
Selling and distribution of $30.8m is the cost to get the coal from the border to... login to read the rest | |
| 304 | |
Would you mind going through that gross margin calculation of $70 and how it relates to the selling and distribution costs line item?
I think the difference between being able to export 3mm tons per half... login to read the rest | |
| 302 | |
The guys at AFC come out to Mongolia quite frequently and seem to have a pretty solid network of contacts. They’ve done pretty well investing on the MSE since the bottom a bit over a... login to read the rest | |
| 298 | |
Hi Hkup, share price up sharply but I can't see any news... do you have any color? Thanks as always. | |
| 297 | |
I think your question is in the “too hard” pile.
I intend to push them on the IR side. They need to be more visible.
I dont see why this shouldn’t trade at 3-5x cash flow... | |
| 296 | |
Do you have any insights on how long it should take a post-reorg small cap in Mongolia to be recognized for its value, what multiple we should expect, and how obvious it needs to be... login to read the rest | |
| 294 | |
Thank you, always insightful as usual. How did you come away feeling about the company? And what do you think management's expectations are about increasing shareholder value and paying down debt? Are they still anticipating | |
| 292 | |
Whether “Tavan Tolgoi” runs or not depends on Shenhua
· How fast that 237km railroad from Tavantolgoi – Gashuunsukhait to be built depends on how the agreement with Shenhua goes. The Cabinet decided to establish the Tavan... login to read the rest | |
| 291 | |
I believe they can only put $35m into PPE before they are subject to the cash sweep. They've been removing overburden which isn't covered by the cash sweep--same with paying off old payables.
I suspect they'll... login to read the rest | |
| 290 | |
Thank you, this entire scenario is very interesting and so what if some anonymous nobody posts a dumb tag. I know they have a cash sweep as part of the restructuring, but at what point... login to read the rest | |