AFRICA OIL CORP AOI.
February 06, 2020 - 3:28pm EST by
member
| 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| Price: | 1.37 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 471 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 669 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 49 | |
Did another Target YouTube...welcome all pushback!
https://www.youtube.com/live/aXk_JfLKFD0 | |
| 48 | |
I think Target at $10 is as good as ever here. Did a video on it...
https://www.youtube.com/live/qYacIftVn5w | |
| 47 | |
I did a BBIO YouTube 2 days ago that was taken down by YouTube for violating copyright law (I had Price is Right on in the background, lol). I appealed and they put it back | |
| 46 | |
Interested to hear your thoughts on BBIO too | |
| 45 | |
Just did another YouTube on TH
https://www.youtube.com/live/B9GB6CsB7tM | |
| 44 | |
Update on the dumpster fire this has turned into for anyone that's interested:
https://www.youtube.com/live/g7b3jMyE4Y8 | |
| 43 | |
Really would like some views on the value here, similar to what Bentley wrote in post 36. Any updates to your thoughts Bentley? Do you still own? | |
| 42 | |
It's a very interesting situation, and I too think the most interesting part of the squeeze out is the inclusion of the competitive process. Thanks for highlighting it. | |
| 41 | |
"However, what's different this time around is that the majority owner has not made any such statement precluding other potential buyers. This raises a concern for me that perhaps they realize the downside risk is... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
Nice podcast, thanks for doing it. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on two comments:
1. One thing I typically like about squeeze-out situations is that your downside is often well protected. This is because the... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
I did a podcast w/ Andrew on Target. I really love this idea and would love feedback.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEomn4doPzs&t=1s | |
| 37 | |
Any idea what's going on here? Does the non recurring nature of the contract justify the current share price? IE people are putting a well below 100% probability the contract gets renewed. | |
| 36 | |
We view the situation quite differently, a few points to make:
First, the TH businesses ex-Pecos are worth $8-$10/share in our mind, so even if the contract only lasted one year, they would generate another ~$1.80... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
There is a filing for it. It’s here: https://www.fpds.gov/ezsearch/fpdsportal?indexName=awardfull&templateName=1.5.3&s=FPDS.GOV&q=influx+care+facility&x=10&y=5
Our understanding after talking to the company is that it should be posted to the usual places shortly. In terms of our view on the contract, the company was... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
1. Where are you hearing that Endeavors and Th are having issues. Our calls indicate the relationship is very strong. Yes, Deployed got the first contract but Endeavors as far as I know only operates... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Any view on why they expanded a facility by $50m when it has no borrowing on the existing facility? Preparing to have to build a new facility (which thereafter gets reimbursed)? Curious behavior. | |
| 22 | |
Tx again, Todd! Extremely helpful.
Yours,
Bowd
| |
| 21 | |
Agree on the Pecos renewal value as it's likely worth something more than <4x and less than 8x (I'm likely overly-punitive assuming <4x).
My napkin-math below, w/ 4 scenarios, hopefully of some use (probability weighting the... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
Will chime in Bowd to get the ball rolling ... directionally agree w/ many of your points
Ex-Pecos, generally agree the rest of biz is a ~125-150MM EBITDA profile (minimal / sub-10MM capex) and applying a... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
The company's interpretation was that it appears there was an award not associated with TH. That's all I know. I'm not an expert here, just observing with interest how the situation unfolds.
Also, what is the | |
| 15 | |
Hi, all --
Also, I'm surprised the bids weren't all announced at the same. The company is silent about being awarded or shut out. GLSV, I see the graphic has a "Start Date" of 9/18, whatever... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
Skip to 8 seconds into this clip for my response
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2AP6Y5eYIs | |
| 12 | |
| 6 | |
I dont think that is surprising at all. Management has said they expect contract announcements by end of 4Q. There were some government filings that indicated awards could be announced in early September or end... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
We've crossed through into September and still nothing.... | |
| 4 | |
Commend you for your flexibility on moving away from and back into the situation Dynamicmoats, and being evidence-based / fact-dependent.
FWIW, in speaking to mgmt, they also seem v upbeat about the prospects for winning couple... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
Thanks. Can you provide a link to the document? | |
| 2 | |
See below from SAM. I agree with everything in this write up except price targets. I think TH worth $50-$70 if they win all 3 ICFs .
| |
| 1 | |
Hi Dynamicmoats
In your write-up you say: “The government said last week that the three IDIQ-related ICF facility awards will be awarded starting in late August. This is the first time I’ve seen a clear indication of... login to read the rest | |