2009 | 2010 | ||||||
Price: | 1.60 | EPS | $0.48 | $0.62 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 23 | P/E | 3.3x | 2.6x | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 37 | P/FCF | 3.3x | 2.6x | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 32 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 5 | TEV/EBIT | na | na |
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China Marine Food Group, (CMFO) is leading and growing producer of dried fish snack food in China. With a stock price of $1.60, the company has $1.40 per share of adjusted net cash, trades at 3.3x 2008 EPS ($0.48) and 2.6x 2009E EPS ($0.62, up 29% y/y). Stripping out adj cash (which is not needed to hit the company's 2009E EPS guidance, but not adjusting for the minimal interest income received on the cash), the stock would be trading at 0.4x 2008 EPS and 0.3x 2009E EPS. As shown below, if the company does not do anything with its excess cash, it will have net cash of over $1.74 (more than its current stock price) by the end of 2009. Management owns 50+% of the company (so it is highly motivated to create shareholder value), intends to soon utilize a $3mm stock buyback, is evaluating highly accretive acquisitions/expansion opportunities, and is planning to meet with US investors (for the first time in ages) in May on a non-deal roadshow. Note: this is not an ADR. It is a Chinese company listed in the US that files SEC docs and follows US GAAP.
CMFO's business is very simple and its recently filed 10k and u.s. based i.r. firm are very helpful so I will not make business description the focus of this write up. CMFO buys fish from fisherman, dry it, process it and then sell it. They have been doing this, thru predecessor companies, for 15+ years. The major products are dried roasted quid, file fish and prawns, and are sold under the popular Mingxian brand name. The company has 21 products and virtually all products are sold in China. The company's products are sold thru 18 distributors in six provinces, Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and Liaoning. These distributors in turn sub-distribute the products to over 1,400 retail points (including major supermarkets and retailers such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour) throughout these provinces. This business accounts for over 90% of the company's revenue and will represent even more as the company expands this business significantly. This business has 30%+ gross margins. The company also has a smaller business (Marine Catch) which is 10% gross margin business. The company is located in Fujian which is in southeast China on the coast of the East China sea.
Growth Opportunities
The company expects to continue organic growth by expanding its high margin snack business distribution thru existing and new distributors and in existing and new markets. This growth can be achieved relatively inexpensively because they don't need to make big investments in pp&e or staff. They sell a well known product and are using distributors to increase their penetration. In July 2008, the Company signed agreements with two new master distributors based in Shanghai (China's largest city) and Guangdong. Combined, the new distributors and their respective customer bases contributed $3.5 million or 7.2% of the Company's overall revenues in 2008. The Company expects this growth trend to continue as new sales opportunities are developed in these highly-populated areas. On March 3, 2009, the Company subsequently announced a sales contract with a leading convenient store chain in Shanghai (China's most populated city) which over time can add over 1,000 new points of sale to the Company's existing retail network of 1,400 locations (This alone would equate to a 70% increase in the number outlets where CMFO products are sold). Similar sales opportunities are developing in Guangdong and other provinces where the Company actively markets and sells its goods.
Growth thru acquisitions, which are not part of the 2009 guidance but that are likely and highly accretive, are discussed further below.
Capacity expansion
To prepare for future growth, the company has been aggressively expanding and modernizing capacity, mainly for the snack food business. This enables the company to increase its gross margins (larger more efficient facilities, more attractive product mix). During 2008, the Company added more than 3,000 tons of additional capacity to its production lines, which came online at the end of the fourth quarter, so it had no real impact on 2008 results. This additional capacity boosted total annual output by 50% to 10,000 tons per year. The Company has also announced plans to double annual capacity up to 20,000 tons by Q3 of 2009, at a cost of $5mm. On its recent earnings call, management indicated that the expansion will be completed earlier than anticipated. To put this in perspective, in 2008 the company generated $49mm in revenue with 7,000 tons of capacity. It now has 10,000 tons of capacity ($70mm implied revenue) and by Q3 2009 will have 20,000 tons of capacity ($140mm implied revenue). Note that the company was not operating at full capacity in 2008 so these figures are likely a bit deceiving, but directionally correct.
Year end and current cash balance
At the end of 2008, the company had $31.6mm of cash and $4.3mm of debt for net debt of $1.19 per share. As discussed below, the company has subsequently monetized a $5mm one time inventory position, which brings adj net cash to $32.3mm or $1.40 per share. There are no unfunded pension plans, big earnouts, big tax payables, etc..this is pure cash.
Projected Cash at end of 2009
Free cash flow is pretty close to net income. In 2008, it was less, primarily because the company opportunistically purchased $5mm in Q4 of some fish (related to the marine catch business) and as of last week had sold all $5mm of that inventory. So, the current cash balance is really $5mm higher than the year end figures.
If the company does not do anything with its excess cash and only meets its earnings guidance (although they say they will "exceed 14.3mm"), as shown below, it will have net cash of $1.74 per share (more than its current stock price) by the end of 2009.
12/31/08 cash $31.6
12/31/08 debt -4.3
2009 cfo/net income 14.3
2009 inventory liquidation 5.0
2009 expansion capex -5.0
2009 other capex -1.5
Cash at end of 2009 $40.1
Shares outstanding 23.0
Net Cash per share at end of 2009 $1.74
Other Valuation
Above I've illustrated p/e valuations based on 2008 and 2009 figures. Let's also look at what this stock will look like at the end of 2009 based on 2010 EPS. We know at end of 2009, the company should have $1.74 per share of cash. For 2010 eps, I will assume eps of $0.74 or growth of 20% in 2010. I think this is ridiculously low growth rate considering all the company's low cost growth opportunities in its higher margin business and the company's historic growth rates. However, in addition to wanting to be conservative, the big issue in valuing the stock isn't necessarily what the eps will be, but rather what multiple the market will assign to that EPS. I will let the reader decide what type of multiple a leading, growing, unlevered, microcap snack food company based in China should get.
Below is the implied valuation of the stock at end of 2009 based on several 2010 p/es.
multiple of 2010 eps |
5.0x |
6.0x |
7.0x |
8.0x |
9.0x |
10.0x |
|
2010 eps |
|
$ 0.74 |
$ 0.74 |
$ 0.74 |
$ 0.74 |
$ 0.74 |
$ 0.74 |
implied value |
$ 3.72 |
$ 4.46 |
$ 5.21 |
$ 5.95 |
$ 6.70 |
$ 7.44 |
|
net cash end of 2009 |
$ 1.74 |
$ 1.74 |
$ 1.74 |
$ 1.74 |
$ 1.74 |
$ 1.74 |
|
implied stock price |
$ 5.46 |
$ 6.21 |
$ 6.95 |
$ 7.69 |
$ 8.44 |
$ 9.18 |
|
implied upside |
241% |
288% |
334% |
381% |
427% |
474% |
|
I believe the eps estimate is too low and even the high end multiple is too low..in other words, I personally think this stock is worth more than $9.18.
So why is the company trading at such ridiculous levels?
Make-whole Provision
As part of a November 2007 capital raise, CMFO's CEO agreed to give a portion of his personal shares to these investors if the company did not reach certain net income targets for 2008 and 2009. This is a common feature for those members not familiar with PIPEs. The company surpassed the 2008 target of $10.5mm and the company's 2009 net income guidance is "in excess of" $14.3mm (which is the 2009 target). The CEO obviously believes the company can achieve this target or he would not have agreed to the deal in the first place. More importantly, if one wants to be somewhat cynical one could assume that (after realizing he would surpass the 2008 target) the CEO might have he slowed down business a bit to make sure he would hit the 2009 target. I do not suspect this occurred but wanted to mention this to give people further confidence that 2009 guidance will be achieved.
Increased investor awareness
Management non-deal roadshow
Stock buyback
Accretive acquisitions
LBO - Mang already owns alot..if public market not attractive, why not take it private.
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