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AUTHOR
DATE
SUBJECT
20
member
12/20/23 11:10AM
Classic Zillow
You have to love this writeup, when the author published it 2024 EBITDA estimates were $1.26B and now they are around $480M, yet the stock is up over that time. Somehow the stock has gone... login to read the rest
thanks for this idea ril1212. Z is interesting & controversial. we're wondering how you think about growth here given the industry challenges all over the news. in particular, Fannie's latest housing forecast (here) is for +3%... login to read the rest
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: perspective from a real estate agent
13
All three of these points are the product of intense anchoring bias.
1) they don't show houses to all 100 leads
2) The conversion rate of referrals is irrelevant. If you have referrals, great those are better,... login to read the rest
Zillow's cumulative underperformance versus the Nasdaq is at its worst since the Trulia acquisition. Premier Agent revenue has tripled since then, while Nasdaq revenue is up 2.5x. Just getting back to their normal underperformance would
The analogy to our job isn't good. Vetting stocks is a long process. Vetting a Zillow lead is just calling someone a few times. For an internet lead brokerage team it's more like they buy... login to read the rest
They actively ruined ZO. They bungled the Flex rollout, withdrew from several markets and scaled it back in others. They botched the Concierge rollout. That's just the last couple years. Every year the stock halves... login to read the rest
Your target is 25x EBITDA, in-line with REA and Rightmove. Despite the optical similarities, those are very, very different business from Zillow, and in my opinion far superior. Why are those comps appropriate?
This stock has been a war of attrition between one of the best businesses in the world and an aggressively mediocre organization. The only edge shareholders have here is that Zillow's competitors are somehow even more retarded... login to read the rest
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