2006 | 2007 | ||||||
Price: | 28.75 | EPS | |||||
Shares Out. (in M): | 0 | P/E | |||||
Market Cap (in $M): | 5,860 | P/FCF | |||||
Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT |
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Income Statement: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
Revenue |
1,556 |
2,241 |
2,652 |
3,014 |
3,471 |
3,854 |
4,247 |
4,659 |
EBITDA |
|
|
602 |
719 |
751 |
776 |
868 |
976 |
D&A |
|
|
107 |
119 |
131 |
148 |
156 |
162 |
EBIT |
320 |
488 |
495 |
600 |
620 |
628 |
712 |
814 |
NI (adj) |
|
|
|
|
|
380 |
420 |
499 |
FCF |
|
|
|
|
|
400 |
440 |
|
EPS (FD) |
|
|
|
|
|
1.86 |
2.06 |
2.45 |
FCF/shr |
|
|
|
|
|
1.96 |
2.16 |
|
P/E |
|
|
|
|
|
15.4 |
14.0 |
11.7 |
P/FCF |
|
|
|
|
|
14.7 |
13.3 |
|
Revenue growth y/y |
|
44.0% |
18.3% |
13.7% |
15.2% |
11.0% |
10.2% |
9.7% |
EBITDA growth y/y |
|
|
|
|
4.5% |
3.4% |
11.7% |
12.5% |
EPS growth y/y |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.4% |
19.0% |
EBIT margin |
20.6% |
21.8% |
18.7% |
19.9% |
17.9% |
16.3% |
16.8% |
17.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EV/Revenue |
|
|
|
2.17 |
1.88 |
1.70 |
1.54 |
1.40 |
EV/EBIT |
|
|
13.2 |
10.9 |
10.5 |
10.4 |
9.2 |
8.0 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
|
10.9 |
9.1 |
8.7 |
8.4 |
7.5 |
6.7 |
Adj EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
|
731 |
822 |
930 |
EV/EBITDA (adj) |
|
|
|
|
|
7.9 |
7.0 |
6.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Valuation: |
EBITDA |
|
|
|
| |||
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Mult. ('07) |
Value |
Per shr |
|
Timeshare Dev |
265 |
283 |
335 |
386 |
7.5 |
2,898 |
14.21 |
|
RCI |
286 |
284 |
265 |
318 |
12.0 |
3,820 |
18.73 |
|
Lodging |
189 |
197 |
213 |
233 |
13.0 |
3,026 |
14.84 |
|
Corporate |
(21) |
(13) |
(37) |
(70) |
10.4 |
(728) |
(3.57) |
|
Enterprise |
719 |
751 |
776 |
868 |
10.4 |
9,017 |
44.20 |
|
Less: Net debt |
|
|
|
|
|
(674) |
(3.30) |
|
Equity value |
|
|
|
|
|
8,343 |
40.90 |
|
Adj for excess cap |
5.7% |
|
|
|
|
326 |
1.60 |
|
Adj equity value |
|
|
|
|
|
8,669 |
42.49 |
|
|
MAR |
CHH |
HLT |
HOT |
IHG |
Median |
|
FS |
WYN |
Vs. Median |
Price |
38.67 |
42.68 |
28.05 |
59.69 |
9.47 |
|
|
63.79 |
28.77 |
|
FDS |
444 |
67 |
417 |
228 |
434 |
|
|
37 |
204 |
|
Mkt cap |
15,632 |
2,829 |
10,821 |
13,001 |
4,098 |
|
|
2,347 |
5,869 |
|
Net debt |
1,197 |
203 |
8,779 |
2,514 |
315 |
|
|
(237) |
674 |
|
Enterprise value |
16,829 |
3,032 |
19,600 |
15,540 |
4,426 |
|
|
2,110 |
6,543 |
|
Net debt/EV |
7% |
7% |
45% |
16% |
7% |
7% |
|
-11% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPS 2006 |
1.57 |
1.45 |
1.11 |
2.37 |
0.40 |
|
|
1.41 |
1.86 |
|
EPS 2007 |
1.87 |
1.66 |
1.35 |
2.69 |
0.50 |
|
|
1.78 |
2.06 |
|
EBITDA 2006 |
1,308 |
175 |
1,738 |
1,249 |
306 |
|
|
76 |
776 |
|
EBITDA 2007 |
1,491 |
191 |
1,974 |
1,384 |
343 |
|
|
94 |
868 |
|
Revenue TTM (MM) |
11,911 |
514 |
5,908 |
5,958 |
906 |
|
|
240 |
3,634 |
|
EBIT TTM (MM) |
752 |
157 |
958 |
880 |
215 |
|
|
(22) |
622 |
|
%margin |
6.3% |
30.6% |
16.2% |
14.8% |
23.7% |
16.2% |
|
-9.1% |
17.1% |
106% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
P/E (2006) |
24.6 |
29.5 |
25.4 |
25.2 |
23.8 |
25.2 |
|
45.2 |
15.4 |
61% |
P/E (2007) |
20.6 |
25.8 |
20.8 |
22.2 |
18.9 |
20.8 |
|
35.8 |
14.0 |
67% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EV/EBITDA (2006) |
12.9 |
17.4 |
11.3 |
12.4 |
14.5 |
12.9 |
|
27.6 |
8.4 |
66% |
EV/EBITDA (2007) |
11.3 |
15.9 |
9.9 |
11.2 |
12.9 |
11.3 |
|
22.5 |
7.5 |
67% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EV/TTM Revenue |
1.4 |
5.9 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
4.9 |
3.3 |
|
8.8 |
1.8 |
54% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stock price change: |
4.9% |
-28.5% |
6.7% |
4.0% |
3.3% |
4.0% |
|
11.0% |
-11.5% |
|
7/19/2006 |
36.86 |
59.70 |
26.30 |
57.38 |
9.16 |
|
|
57.46 |
32.50 |
|
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