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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
25	member 10/17/24 9:32AM Re: 3Q earnings 24
Doesn't get more bullish than that. Rational behavior / the oligopoly has returned...I also really liked this comment - feels like he was talking to competitors more than investors... "We're not going to give guidance for... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
24	member 10/16/24 2:05PM 3Q earnings
Not much to say other than yahoo for school. We view today's earnings as extremely confirmatory of the thesis. We now have an extremely rational industry. If UAL comes close to their 70-75% FCF conversion... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
23	member 10/04/24 7:35PM Re: thesis 22
Motherlode, not a bad summary. I’m hoping this is my SMCI. Hat tip on that one. The SAVE BK was more a 2025 probability in my estimate, but today’s article makes this much likelier — Elavon... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
22	member 10/04/24 12:51PM thesis
so your investment thesis has two components? 1)The U.S. airline industry acted like an oligopoly in 2013-2018, but SAVE/LUV were adding capacity RATIONALLY to cut their CASM and further exploit their advantage. UAL loved the earnings... login to read the rest 7 view available tags
21	member 10/04/24 8:39AM Game On
Spirit Airlines shares slide after report of possible bankruptcy filing Oct 3 (Reuters) - Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N), opens new tab is in talks with bondholders over the terms of a potential bankruptcy filing in the wake of its... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
20	member 10/01/24 10:41PM Re: Re: Re: Engine metals 19
There are long lead times in metals. The melts happening now are not for current build rates, you’re looking out 12+ months, so there’s a delay in current production vs. metals demand. Second, directionally, LEAP... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
19	member 10/01/24 3:28PM Re: Re: Engine metals 14
sondasy (or anyone else who has an opinion): regarding the engine parts (forgings/castings) shortages, the labor argument makes sense (large lay-offs during downturn, takes time to re-hire/re-train), but I don't really get the capacity argument. ... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
18	member 10/01/24 11:05AM Copa to benefit from the same theme?
Disclosure -- I own a lot of Copa, which I also wrote up on VIC in November 2023. I'm curious whether you think Copa may also benefit from the supply constraints and oligopolistic behavior of the... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 10/01/24 9:31AM Re: Re: UAL 13
Glory_Warriors - I certainly agree that American's bankruptcy (and capacity reductions) contributed to the 2013-2015 time period, however, so did their merger with US Air…So did UAL w/ Continental, along with Delta and Northwest, and... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
15	member 9/30/24 9:32PM Re: Re: UAL 13
Glory, thanks for the support on my other posts. I think the combination of less capacity + more rational players is what makes for interesting setup, especially with impaired multiples. I view the LUV monetization of... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 9/30/24 9:20PM Re: Engine metals 11
Alloys that go into the hot rotating parts of the engine take 20+ weeks to manufacture. On top of that, to supply into the industry takes $100mms of capital and 7-10 years to build that... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 9/30/24 2:28PM Re: UAL
@Hamilton1757, I agree that the US airline industry will be a good market when SAVE files. But SAVE has unencumbered planes, it isn't BK yet. The airlines were 5-baggers from 2013-2015 because AAL went bankrupt... login to read the rest 6 view available tags
12	member 9/30/24 11:01AM Re: Re: UAL 10
I think you are missing it Glory_Warriors -- the market wasn't short planes in '23 or '24 on a global basis. There were tons of planes sitting around parked globally, given that demand in 2023... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
10	member 9/29/24 9:00PM Re: UAL
@sondasy, I really enjoyed your CHRW and KLG pitches, but I'll take the other side of your US airlines pitch. I don't agree with your capacity framework. You might end up being right on UAL... login to read the rest 9 view available tags
9	member 9/29/24 12:41PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Qs 8
Freeflow - I think the below is a better representation of where we are with the overall parked fleet over time and where we are vs. historical and trend levels, we are well below trend... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 9/28/24 3:35PM Disclaimer
Late Friday post… forgot to include the disclaimer which should be included as an integral part of the post. At the time of its publication, funds and accounts managed by the author’s employer were long UAL.... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 9/28/24 3:22PM Re: Lessors 3
By the sword of Odin! You’re absolutely right — except that is part of our bullish view. UAL owns 85% of its fleet vs largely leased fleets for the ULCCs — this is part of... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
5	member 9/28/24 3:14PM Re: Re: Qs 2
Thanks Light. so the final table includes parked fleet for AOGs as a result of the GTF issue. You can see that in the neo #s. Excluding the GTF “parked,” we estimate that the true parked... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
4	member 9/28/24 3:06PM Re: Qs 1
Thanks Nails. Demand is still recovering and below 2019 levels in 2022/23. Industry was still oversupplied coming out of Covid, and ULCCs were able to sustain cash burn and take deliveries while legacy network carriers.... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
3	member 9/28/24 11:52AM Lessors
If a ton of planes are leased industry wide (my v basic understanding), is there a risk all the benefits of this tight supply situation accrue to them and the airlines just end up paying 3 view available tags

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			2009	2010
Price:	19.40	EPS	$2.73	$3.22
Shares Out. (in M):	42	P/E	7.1x	6.0x
Market Cap (in $M):	820	P/FCF	7.1x	6.0x
Net Debt (in $M):	-64	EBIT	185	216
TEV (in $M):	756	TEV/EBIT	4.0x	3.5x

Description

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