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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
15	member 6/28/23 12:59PM Re: Gross margins 14
Thanks for the question. I'm getting confidence in mgmt's target of 27% gross margin. I think that pricing optimization across the warehouse network has had material benefits that prior was being attributed to covid effects... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
13	member 5/10/23 11:15AM Author Exit Recommendation
Closed position due to relative valuation vs other opportunities. This may do ok from here, but I think my underwriting of HVAC volumes in the writeup was a bit too optimistic. view available tags
12	member 1/16/23 12:58PM Re: Re: Nov shipment data 11
You're right, I looked at the report incorrectly. Thanks for pointing that out. Nov22 AC + heat pump were up 4.7% over Nov 21. Just AC up 3.9%. I highlighted the ACs bc I believe that... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
11	member 1/16/23 2:12AM Re: Nov shipment data 10
I've not spent that long on this space so pls correct me if wrong but isn't the -3.3% a YTD number (rather than Nov) and for AC only while we should be looking at AC 1 view available tags
10	member 1/15/23 1:54PM Nov shipment data
AHRI Nov shipment data showed a -3.3% y/y decline for air conditioner units, while AC units & heat pumps combined were +2.1% y/y over a 12% comp in 2021. Both an improvement from October data... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 12/31/22 5:41PM Re: SEER 1
Thanks roojoo and others for your comments. With 85-90% of industry volumes driven by failure I find it difficult to estimate a material drop-off in volumes from recent levels due to a 2022 pull-forward of... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 12/28/22 4:51PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Capital allocation 6
I agree with Bowd here, Watsco has a limited runway for acquisitions. I'm surprised it is still considered a compounder, it hasn't been for nearly a decade. The math, to back up Bowd's assertion: Watsco... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
6	member 12/28/22 4:07AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Capital allocation 5
Thanks Bowd, did you got it from WSO that they are limited in their ability to acquire other brand distributors? I have not been able to talk to WSO nor been able to find more... login to read the rest -1 view available tags
4	member 12/27/22 12:05PM Re: Re: Capital allocation 3
Thanks Bowd, something I hadn't given much thought. I was also surprised by the low number of acquisitions they have done compared to other distributors. Doesn't the structure of the RSUs also incentivize a large dividend?... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
2	member 12/27/22 11:18AM Capital allocation
WSO only has 15% share in a fragmented market that seems ripe for further consolidation with many independent distributors. They used to be more aggressive on the M&A front, acquiring distributors for HSD EBITDA multiples.... login to read the rest -1 view available tags
1	member 12/26/22 7:02PM SEER
Thanks for the writeup. I agree there is a lot to like about WSO and it's the perfect kind of company to buy for the long term when the market is concerned about short term... login to read the rest 5 view available tags

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			2022	2023
Price:	252.17	EPS	14	13.3
Shares Out. (in M):	39	P/E	18	19
Market Cap (in $M):	9,800	P/FCF	21x	0
Net Debt (in $M):	0	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	9,800	TEV/EBIT	0	0

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