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From 73 to 75, we were in the worst recession since the Great Depression and the macro conditions stayed pretty miserable for the next several years (saw another recession in 82). Yet the price of... login to read the rest

  1970 $2.96    N.A.    N.A. Regulated prices 1971 $3.17    N.A.    N.A.   1972 $3.22    N.A.    N.A.   1973 $4.08    N.A.    N.A.   1974 $12.52 $9.59 $13.06  OPEC oil embargo ended 1975 $13.95 $12.77 $15.04 Stagflation 1976 $13.48 $13.26 $13.71 Economy recovered 1977 $14.53 $14.11 $14.76 Fed raised and lowered rates 1978 $14.57 $14.40 $14.94 Fed raised and lowered rates 1979 $21.57 $15.50 $28.91 Iran-Iraq War, fed rate 20% 1980 $33.86 $30.75 $35.63 Iran oil embargo 1981 $37.10 $35.43 $39.00 Reagan cut taxes 1982 $33.57 $32.78 $35.54 Recession ends inflation 1983 $29.31 $27.95 $31.40   1984 $28.88 $28.02 $29.26   1985 $26.99 $26.21 $27.60  

Looking at copper, aluminum, oil etc its starting to feel like the cyclical is going to overcome the secular near-term (i.e. we're entering a global recession across Europe which is already there, China which is... login to read the rest

In all honesty, even though I got sucked into the debate on oil prices, I never ever take a view on oil prices in 10+ years trading the space (doing always relative value). I've seen scores... login to read the rest

You keep talking about demand, but make little mention of supply. It's not just that companies have stopped drilling: they have shut in producing wells! All over the US, Canada, and of course a massive... login to read the rest

I think that midstream oil & gas companies are the steal of the century. I am incredibly long AM, ENLC, EPD, ET, GEL, MMP, MPLX & RTLR. The stocks are cheap compared to the market.... login to read the rest

I don't know anything about oil and I don't think a lot of people know anything about oil (smart people sometimes right and sometimes wrong). Since he said that SLB is down 50%. He may have... login to read the rest

mip14-  sorry to be dense here, but isn't sancho saying that SLB (a big component of OIH) doesn't look cheap?  if you're buying calls on OIH, why did you tell him he's right? 

Idk...I think the lost oil demand is an insurmountable challenge for OPEC. Plus, even if somehow these production cuts do successfully prop up oil, its hard to see any energy stock enjoying any multiple expansion... login to read the rest

most (all?) 3x ETFs in volatile sectors/instruments (BULL or BEAR) are ultimately effective 0's, just depends on how long it will take to get there.  can never get borrows on them and if you can... login to read the rest

Why not short ERY or buy Puts here. You have double whammy of path-dependency (-50% and +50% is not 100%)  and a positive trend when energy stocks are about to rise. Reminds me littlebit of FAZ (3x... login to read the rest

Forget about sales multiples. Still 5-6% FCF yield. So they're not covering the divvy, and you pay the same multiple for the SPX with no commodity price risk. Why bother?

Thx Biffins

Fantastic.  I have actually been wrestling with what to do (if anything) with Ensco and its peers.  

Now THIS is something I am looking forward to!

I agree with your thesis in general (of course I'm long SLB calls and OSV equities so I want you to be right). While I agree with other posters here that the underlying stocks aren't... login to read the rest

Completely agree with the view that most companies in the OIH aren't "cheap".  It's a very low barrier industry that has shown zero capital discipline and inability to generate consistently high FCF (and those that... login to read the rest

I assume you could make a similar arguement for high quality MLPs (eg. EPD) with greater certainty on them hitting 2019 numbers given the ramp in US production.  Curious why chose the OIH vs. say

It's tempting to buy your argument that the OIH is oversold/undervalued, but when you look under the hood, company by company, I struggle to see obvious value, particularly in some of the largest names in... login to read the rest