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19	member 5/12/24 10:03AM Re: Re: Re: thanks - any updated thoughts? 18
I agree with all of the negatives on Apple, but here's one thing to consider: How a private equity buyer would look at Apple. They spend $32B a year on R&D. Companies like Nasdaq, Delta... login to read the rest -4 view available tags
18	member 5/11/24 3:00PM Re: Re: thanks - any updated thoughts? 17
I'm still short. Clearly, I was wrong in my timing. However, I don't think I was wrong in the thesis. As time passes, this becomes increasingly compelling as the risks mount, especially given the current... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
15	member 2/03/23 12:02PM Re: first revenue declin since 2016 14
wow, this thing is up 4% Today. This market is not healthy. People really think Apple is immune to anything. 3 view available tags
14	member 2/03/23 1:42AM first revenue declin since 2016
Despite opex coming in well below guidance, they still missed EPS. This was their first revenue decline since 2016 and they guided another rev decline in the Mar/Q. I didn't see anything positive in the call... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
13	member 1/24/23 10:57AM Re: Re: Re: Re: some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis 10
https://www.axios.com/2021/10/14/teen-iphone-use-spending-habits "A whopping 87% of U.S. teenagers have iPhones, per a new survey of 10,000 young people from investment bank Piper Sandler." "87% of teens own an iPhone and 88% expect an iPhone to be their next phone; Apple is... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
12	member 1/24/23 6:49AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis 11
I have the Pixel 7 Pro with the Microsoft Launcher. You could not pay me to switch to iOS. 2 view available tags
11	member 1/23/23 9:17PM Re: Re: Re: Re: some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis 10
I live in the Midwest-there are iPhones here. Visit. You may get long. view available tags
10	member 1/23/23 8:19PM Re: Re: Re: some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis 9
"several studies show that roughly 90% of US teens have iPhones" could you show me that study? If this was actually factual, Apple should have a significantly higher market share. Simple as that. I'm not arguing... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 1/21/23 4:26PM Re: Re: some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis 4
I only planned to be a bystander in this thread but wanted to provide my 2c that may deepen the discussion re the MOAT on point 1) 1) I would never buy a phone other than... login to read the rest -2 view available tags
8	member 1/20/23 2:48PM Re: Re: Never have i ever 7
Isn't there a proposal in Europe that would force iMessage to be offered on Android? I think they follow through on it - like the charging port thing Just saying if iMessage if offered on Android 3 view available tags
5	member 1/20/23 9:33AM Re: Re: some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis 4
Thank You Lightspot, I appreciate. I think it is very helpful to discuss. My further considerations: I think Iphone is a device that a person, if he can, does everything to buy, even if it is... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 1/19/23 6:55PM Re: some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis 3
thank you for the pushbacks Trajan. It's always good to have this discussion. I will give you my pushback on each below. With reference to the MOAT:1) I would never buy a phone other than Iphone agree,... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
3	member 1/17/23 4:18AM some thoughts and why I do not agree with the thesis
I try to summarize below my criticism. With reference to the MOAT:1) I would never buy a phone other than Iphone2) I would never buy a tablet other than Ipad3) I would always use MacOS and... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 1/16/23 3:22PM Re: Huawei 1
Oh Yes! I estimate that w/o Huawei's demise the CAGR would have been 5% instead of the 9% I stated in the write-up. So yes, we think Huawei's demise was a major contributor. Apple was... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
1	member 1/15/23 3:54PM Huawei
You wrote - Since covid started, we estimate iPhone units shipped CAGR +9% from 2019 to 2022 Have you made any estimate of what Huawei's demise has contributed in terms of incremental iPhone volumes or what this view available tags

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			2024	2025
Price:	11.67	EPS	1.26	1.30
Shares Out. (in M):	77	P/E	8	9
Market Cap (in $M):	873	P/FCF	7	7
Net Debt (in $M):	675	EBIT	330	350
TEV (in $M):	1,548	TEV/EBIT	4.9	4.6

Description

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