US Gypsum USG
W
March 14, 2006 - 10:28am EST by
member
| 2006 | 2007 | ||||||
| Price: | 88.00 | EPS | |||||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 0 | P/E | |||||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 3,958 | P/FCF | |||||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | |||||
Description
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 51 | |
wow - a few more points and looks like Buffett's backstop could get exercised afterall! Amazing. | |
| 50 | |
valuearb,
I guess last night's announcement deflated the puts pretty well. Looks like some poor mkt mkr didn't do his homework and got labelled with a bunch of puts on the opening....
I shoulda sold more. Thanks | |
| 48 | |
As a one-time mutual fund manager I suspect it will make a difference in a number of fund complexes. | |
| 47 | |
from BK. On the tape after the close. Rts record date of the 30th; rts expire 7/27, unless extended.
Can any of you Fund mgrs out there comment on whether USG no longer being in... login to read the rest | |
| 45 | |
| 44 | |
valuearb,
It is amazing that the July 70 reversal (buy call/sell put/short stock) is setting up for a decent credit; I'm told the stock is fairly easy to borrow and you get a 3% rebate. I | |
| 42 | |
The July puts look juice because it appears you'll be able to get a share + right put to you. My math is that the rights trade for 20 days, and start trading 10 days... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
Anything changing here? | |
| 40 | |
This attempt to address the harm to littler companies could break the logjam here.....
**********
Asbestos Trust Plan Is Changed to Win Support in U.S. Senate
2006-05-26 12:33 (New York)
By James Rowley
May 26... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
It seems increasingly clear that residential construction has put in a major cyclical top, after one of its biggest runs in history, and housing starts are likely to be off well more than 20% from... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
Looks good at first blush. Have not dissected, but looks like $3.55 sans restruct stuff. 99% cap ute. All bizzes firing well. Emergence from BK in mid-June. Shorts gonna get further squeezed. Next stop $140??
| |
| 36 | |
Sparky - Firstly, congrats and thanks for this idea and writeup. It has been a nice winner so far. Any thoughts on earnings tomorrow? From what I can tell of the scant sell-side coverage, the... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
Vulcan often used as a USG comp.
Raised comparable Q1 ests to 62-63cts from a range of 50-60cts. First Call concensus had 57cts.
| |
| 33 | |
USG's Lone Analyst!! "Expect another blowout quarter." due to strong demand and pricing. Keeps target of $120, tho also seems to say it will be trading at $140. Interestingly, he values it using his... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
I like the increase in non-res. construction. Office bldgs use thicker drywall and usually ceiling tiles. : )
AP
Construction Spending Hits Record in Feb.
Monday April 3, 10:20 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger
Construction Spending Hits... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
jaxson,
Perfect comps are tough. I think Lousy Land (LXP) isn't a good comp cuz it's been in a period of stagnant or declining earnings and performance, whereas USG is the total opposite. The best comp... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
Really interesting situation, thanks for all the postings. It seems that at this point the investment really gets down to the valuation question. @ $95/share, the stock is pricing in 5.5x 2006 EBITDA... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Yarak,
You've got it.
The only error is that they are committed to the Rights Offering even if FAIR passes. The paranoiac in me thinks it's because WEB wants to increase his stake and mgmt wants to... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
Okay, I think I am starting to make sense of it. I am not too smart, so if I dumb it down like this makes more sense:
We think the stock will be worth $99 post... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
aplogies for the formatting on my previous post, it loooked good when i typed it in | |
| 23 | |
Sparky - Couple of questions for you on the valuation calculation. Your argument (I believe) is that the shares are worth $99 right now, plus you get the right to buy another share for $40,... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
EXP on 52 wk highs.....
and
Saint-Gobain Says BPB Performing Better Than Forecast (Update1)
2006-03-24 11:35 (New York)
(Adds closing share price in fifth paragraph.)
By Nicolas Johnson
March 24 (Bloomberg)... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
Hao,
I appreciate that they aren't exact comps; however, BBT's #'s show over half of EXP's total revs, profits, etc are from Wallboard.
Not sure how late in the cycle we are, as seen by BBT's... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
good catch. Thanks. 07 starts June of 06. | |
| 18 | |
It's been said once before, but I think bears repeating...comparing USG to EXP is too favorable to USG. Gypsum is a much different animal than cement and is late in its cycle - peak to... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Are those fiscal year numbers? EXP has a 3/31 year, so Fiscal 07 is really tantamount to calendar 06 for USG. | |
| 16 | |
looking at a Mar 8th BBT rept on EXP which is a decent comp in my mind. Their $62 price target, um, which the stock is already at, is a 12X ev/ebitda using their 2006E... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
hao,
Thanks! Now I've got a headache! I think the "answer" is that they are actually "deep in the money" puts. If I plug in a 38 vol into my BBerg OV (I don't have any... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
Thanks for the write-up...your advice re Advil was smart. I'm getting a migraine trying to decipher the reasons behind the odd pricing of at-the-money Nov options - since you own the Aug, can you shed... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
Under mfg:
"In most Districts, the strength in demand for factory goods was widespread across industries. The sectors frequently mentioned as facing strong demand included construction materials... "
Under Construction:
"Construction
Construction and Real Estate
Construction and real estate activity... login to read the rest | |