Tullett
Prebon (TLPR_LN) 462 pence BUY
Tullett Prebon (“Tullett”) is the world’s second-largest
inter-dealer broker, which the market has recently put on sale at all-time lows.
Tullett is an overlooked spinoff that begin
trading on the London Stock Exchange in December 2006. Adjusting for regular and special dividends,
the market in recent weeks has driven Tullett more than 5% below its price at
the time of the spinoff, and Tullett is now available at a compelling valuation
on both an absolute basis and relative to its peers (and described as a “hidden
gem” by someone from the industry).
I believe the market is overreacting to three recent data
points: strength in the GBP, which led the company to guide for lower reported
revenue growth in 2007 (~50% of TLPR’s business is USD denominated or linked);
the apparent failure of Tullett’s bid for electronic rival ESPD (an
opportunistic, lowball bid made after activists briefly went after ESPD, and with
full knowledge that ESPD’s voting rights are in the hands of rival BGC Partners
and that the bid therefore had very low odds of success); and Tullett stating
that it will increase 2007 investment in its Tradeblade electronic trading
service to GBP 15mm, coupled with a slow start by Tradeblade in the US repo
market.
I think the market is missing the bigger picture for
Tullett: voice-broking of complex OTC derivatives (their main business) is
*not* disappearing the way voice broking is for equities; in fact it is a
growth business, as the volume and complexity of derivatives instruments has
grown dramatically in the last decade and continues to grow, driven by
increases in proprietary trading and by changes in risk management practices at
banks and corporations, particularly with changes Basel II is making in how
core capital is accounted for at banks.
Inter-dealer brokers are intermediaries (“broker’s brokers”)
in the wholesale global financial markets, whose clients are professional
traders, i.e. commercial banks,
investment banks, hedge funds and buy-side institutions. Tullett primarily brokers trades involving
interest rate derivatives, foreign exchange, and fixed-income securities. Inter-dealer brokers benefit from increases
in volatility, volume, and complexity in the financial markets.
1 TLPR is undervalued
on both an absolute basis and relative to its peers, trading at 8.6x estimated
2008 EBIT and 13.1x estimated 2008 earnings (which for TLPR is a proxy for free
cash flow), while likely to be able to grow revenue at 7%-9% annually, and to
have a long-term EPS growth rate of over 10% due to operating leverage. Coupled with a high return on equity (28%),
and a commitment to return free cashflow to shareholders, I think we can expect
significant gains from TLPR as a standalone business.
2 However, TLPR is also
likely to benefit in the near- to mid- term from market consolidation among and
between inter-dealer brokers and exchanges, and there is a decent probability
that it is acquired by a larger rival or partner in the next couple of years.
3 TLPR has the
unusual property of being a beneficiary of increased financial market
volatility, as its products are used by its customers to manage and speculate
on risk and changes in interest rates.
Therefore it can act as a “natural hedge” against other positions in a
portfolio (but, of course, has outlier downside risk from settlement failures
etc).
History and
management of Tullett
TLPR was demerged from its parent, Collins Stewart Tullett
plc (formerly CSTL_LN) on December 14,
2006. Collins Stewart Tullett
included the inter-dealer broker business of TLPR as well as the institutional
and private client stockbroker business of Collins Stewart (now traded
separately as CLST_LN). Collins Stewart
itself went public in 2000, and acquired Tullett Liberty in March 2003. The Tullett business was founded in 1971 and
was originally focused on the foreign exchange and money markets. During the 1970s and 1980s, Tullett developed
a number of overseas offices and expanded its operations as an intermediary in
the wholesale financial markets, including interest rate derivatives. In 1999, Tullett acquired Liberty Brokerage,
a fixed-income dealer based in New
York.
Collins Stewart Tullett acquired the Prebon inter-dealer
broking business in October 2004, and rebranded the combined business Tullett
Prebon.
TLPR recently received regulatory permission to reduce its
capital (as it does not take principal risk but only acts as an intermediary),
and paid out a special dividend to shareholders in March 2007 of GBP302mm (about
141p per share). The CEO has stated that
he is interested in continuing to use the balance sheet to pay special
dividends on top of ordinary dividends.
The recap/special dividend brought leverage from net cash to closer to
2x net debt/EBITDA (but given its strong free cashflow generation, TLPR should
be able to delever quickly at close to 0.5 turns/year).
We believe Terry Smith is a highly-motivated owner-CEO who
is interested in maximizing his sizable (~USD90mm) position. He has already leveraged the balance sheet
to make one extraordinary dividend to shareholders, and has indicated he is focused
on returning value to shareholders (which his large personal shareholding makes
quite believable).
Background – radical
changes in the structure of the financial markets
Companies that play a role in the global financial market
structure, such as retail brokers, equity and derivatives exchanges, ECNs,
specialists, etc. have been in a state of rapid change and consolidation over
the last few years, as has been explored in the VIC threads on LaBranche, the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Knight Trading, and others. The primary driver has been the rise of
electronic trading in many instruments coupled with exponential growth in
volume and complexity of financial markets, which arises from a combination of
algorithmic traders who trade at extremely high volumes, hedge funds and
investment bank proprietary trading operations that trade as principals in a
high volume and in a wide range of instruments, and the expanding use of
derivatives for commercial hedging and for risk control for banks.
There are three main themes in this evolution of the market
structure:
1 Electronicization, where non-custom
financial products (such as equities, commodities, US treasuries, etc.) have
rapidly moved from lower-volume, higher frictional cost, semi-anonymous
voice-trading models to high-volume, near-zero frictional cost, and highly
anonymous electronic trading models. For
example, algorithmic and other computerized trading is now estimated to account
for up to 30% of the daily volume on the US stock exchanges.
2 Disintermediation,
where direct-access electronic trading, sidestepping traditional broker-dealers
in many cases, has supplanted indirect-access voice brokerage, radically
cutting commissions for brokers and specialists, and in many cases driving them
out of business.
3 Transparency,
where prices and depth of market information are now widely available where
this information was once proprietary to intermediaries such as specialists.
These three trends have greatly improved the liquidity,
price efficiency, and frictional costs in the global markets, while also
increasing opportunities for traders while decreasing the opportunities for
traditional market intermediaries, and thus encouraging even more trading.
Merger and acquisition activities following these themes
include the NASDAQ stock market’s going public and purchasing ECN rivals Brut
and Inet, and its failed bid for the London Stock Exchange. Likewise, the NYSE has demutualized, gone
public and acquired electronic competitor Archipelago and the European exchange
Euronext. Private equity firms, buy-side
and sell-side institutions and hedge funds have bought substantial stakes in
the ECNs and national and regional equity and derivatives exchanges, and funded
startups such as BATS.
Meanwhile, traditional voice-brokerage-related or very
“offline” operations such as NYSE specialists (e.g., LaBranche) have in many cases seen radically diminished
volume and profitability, or been completely subsumed by electronicization,
such as the complete ouster of open-outcry floor brokers on the French futures
exchange MATIF during a two-week period in 1998 after the exchange began
offering parallel electronic contracts, which took almost all volume from the
open-outcry pits (the brokers even went on strike in protest).
Some exchanges, such as the CME and the CBOT, have managed
to retain open outcry alongside growing electronic trading operations. But, electronicization seems to be the future
of trading of most standardized financial products, such as exchange-traded
bonds, equities, futures, and options, where terms of the instrument are
transparent and the only variables are price and volume, and total anonymity is
acceptable to end participants because trade settlement is regulated and straightforward,
and is the responsibility of the exchanges and broker-dealers.
However, two qualities, lack of standardization and lack of
liquidity, make electronicization difficult for some financial
instruments. Most importantly,
customized instruments are difficult to trade electronically; hybrid systems of
voice brokers using electronic back-end trade settlement systems seem to be the
most practical market for these.
Secondarily, even standardized instruments without readily available
pools of liquidity, such as distressed debt and convertible bonds, have
remained non-electronic to date.
The inter-dealer
brokers
Inter-dealer brokers are a small club of specialized brokers who act as an
intermediary between institutional participants in wholesale financial markets,
for complex and/or large transactions in equity and credit derivatives, fixed
income, money market, foreign exchange, and energy. They operate primarily in the “over-the-counter”
market for these products (i.e instruments
not traded on an exchange). The biggest
interdealer brokers by market share are Icap (25%), Tullett (18%), Tradition
(14%), BGC/Cantor (14%), GFI (11%), E-Speed/Cantor (2%).
These OTC wholesale markets are growing rapidly, as the instruments traded
are used to manage and profit from volatility in interest rates, equity and
debt markets, commodities and energy, which have all become much more actively
traded markets due to proprietary trading from investment banks and hedge
funds. Also, market volatility creates
more demand for the products that TLPR
trades.
The inter-dealer brokerage business qualifies as a “good
business” in that while the sector is fiercely competitive, there are a limited
and shrinking number of participants, and returns on equity are high, as the
company acts as a middleman and there is no real cost of inventory. The marketplace of complex financial products
has been expanding for years as new products are being invented and become
mainstream (swaps, CDOs, CDSs, etc.), thus allowing the transfer of risk
between participants in the financial system (especially from regulated
entities such as commercial banks that wish to diminish risk, to unregulated
entities such as hedge funds that trade risk) and seems unlikely to stop
growing.
However, products traded by the interdealer brokers tend to
follow a lifecycle which requires the entrance of new products to sustain
revenue (eg commissions on existing products decline every year on average):
-- New, high-commission, low-volume products are introduced,
which are traded by open-outcry voice
-- As products mature, volume and liquidity increases, and
commissions decline, and the products begin to move to semi-electronic
platforms
-- Fully mature products become commoditized and
electronicized (US treasuries, spot FX)
-- But, many products remain too complicated to trade on an
electronic platform
Increases in
derivatives volume
The OTC derivatives market has grown at a very high rate in
recent years. According to ISDA’s market
survey, this is the growth in notional amounts (in billions of USD) outstanding
at year-end for the last five years for the following categories: total interest rate and currency swaps and
interest rate options (IR+FX), credit default swaps (CDS), and equity-linked
derivatives:
|
Total
IR+FX, BB
|
YOY
change
|
Total CDS,
BB
|
YOY
change
|
Total
equity derivatives, BB
|
YOY
change
|
2002
|
101,318
|
|
2,192
|
|
2,455
|
|
2003
|
142,307
|
40%
|
3,779
|
72%
|
3,444
|
40%
|
2004
|
183,583
|
29%
|
8,422
|
123%
|
4,151
|
21%
|
2005
|
213,195
|
16%
|
17,096
|
103%
|
5,554
|
34%
|
2006
|
285,728
|
34%
|
34,423
|
101%
|
7,178
|
29%
|
CAGR 2002-06
|
|
30%
|
|
99%
|
|
31%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likewise, the Bank for International Settlements reported
that notional amounts outstanding of credit default swaps grew 42% in 2006, to
a total of USD28.8 trillion. Detailed
breakdowns are available here:
http://www.bis.org/statistics/derdetailed.htm
Estimates for Tullett
Prebon
|
Summary
Financials (adjusted and estimated, in GBP)
|
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
Revenue
|
624
|
654
|
725
|
761
|
EBITDA
|
100
|
123
|
137.2
|
150.7
|
EBIT
|
91
|
115
|
128.2
|
141.6
|
NI
|
|
69.5
|
67.4
|
75.6
|
shares
|
|
215
|
215
|
215
|
EPS
|
|
0.32
|
0.31
|
0.35
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margins
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA
|
16.0%
|
18.8%
|
18.9%
|
19.8%
|
EBIT
|
14.6%
|
17.6%
|
17.7%
|
18.6%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Growth
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue
|
…
|
4.8%
|
10.9%
|
5.0%
|
EBITDA
|
…
|
23.0%
|
11.6%
|
9.9%
|
EBIT
|
…
|
26.4%
|
11.5%
|
10.5%
|
NI
|
…
|
…
|
-3.0%
|
12.1%
|
Tullett’s revenues should increase by at least 100mm beyond
organic growth in 2007 due to the January acquisition of Chapdelaine, a smaller
fixed-income specialist broker.
Chapdelaine’s margins are presently lower than TLPR’s but TLPR predicts
that they will be able to bring them up to TLPR’s margins this year.
Valuation
Tullett Prebon
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
TEV/Revenue
|
1.9x
|
1.7x
|
1.6x
|
TEV/EBITDA
|
9.9x
|
8.8x
|
8.1x
|
TEV/EBIT
|
10.6x
|
9.5x
|
8.6x
|
P/E
|
14.3x
|
14.7x
|
13.1x
|
FCF Yield
|
7.0%
|
6.8%
|
7.6%
|
Net debt/EBITDA
|
1.8x
|
1.2x
|
0.8x
|
By comparison, Tullett’s two main publicly-traded
competitors, GFI (GFIG:Nasdaq), and Icap (IAP_LN) trade at higher forward
multiples:
2007 estimates:
P/E TEV/Revenue
GFI 24.0x 2.3x
Icap 17.1x 2.6x
Publicly traded equity and derivatives exchanges, also
potential acquirers of TLPR, trade at even higher forward multiples, making an
acquisition of Tullett very accretive to them:
2007 estimates:
P/E
NYSE Euronext
(NYX) 31.2x
Nasdaq (NDAQ) 24.7x
Chicago
Mercantile Exchange (CME) 37.3x
Chicago
Board of Trade (BOT) 42.7x
InterContinental Exchange (ICE) 46.4x
International Securities Exchange (ISE) 36.6x
Sector consolidation
and buyouts
The inter-dealer broker sector is undergoing rapid change
and consolidation, with TLPR having been a buyout target in the last two years,
and having itself made a $12/share bid for US electronic rival E-Speed (ESPD)
recently (that bid is highly unlikely to succeed as ESPD’s controlling
shareholder, BGC Partners/Cantor Fitzgerald, has said it will not sell, and in
fact BGC Partners has cancelled its planned IPO and instead is doing a reverse
merger into ESPD, valuing ESPD at $9.75/share).
TLPR has been approached in the last two years by several
financial buyers: PE firms Hellman & Friedman (a large shareholder in the
NASDAQ), Blackstone and KKR. The firms
have been unable to agree on price with TLPR.
Merging with another interdealer broker would make sense,
but the interdealer brokers have been fierce rivals at a business and personal
level, with the relations being characterized in the UK press as “Business rivals who
trade punches as well as bonds”:
“It is
hard to find a feud as deep and vituperative as that between three of the
wealthiest men in the City: Terry Smith, Howard Lutnick, the head of Cantor
Fitzgerald, and Michael Spencer, the chief of Icap, another interdealer
broker” Times of London, “Broker Feud
Deepens over E-Speed Bid,” April 19 2007.
However, it is also believed in the interdealer industry
that despite the personal feuds, mergers between the competitors are possible
as long as the buyout price for the target is high enough.
The interdealer broker businesses are also logical tie-ups
with the equity and derivatives exchanges, with the Wall Street Journal
reporting in September that the “merger trend sweeping big exchanges is
cascading toward interdealer brokers,” and discussing talks between Icap and
the London Stock Exchange, and E-Speed and the CBOT. The UK press also reported in February
that Tullett Prebon has recently “held informal talks with the CME, Nasdaq,
Deutsche Borse and Euronext” and that Smith “is by no means committed to
independence.” Sunday Observer, “Terry
Smith ponders stock exchange tie-up,” Feb 18 2007. Smith just last week wrote an op-ed in the
Financial Times complaining about the headaches and distractions of having
public shareholders.
Risks
The risks to the core business are much faster electronicization
than we anticipate; a slowdown in derivatives trading volume either due to
regulation (unlikely) or some long-term slowdown in the securities business,
such as a shift in capital away from hedge funds and prop desks at investment
banks (not inconceivable but also seems unlikely); or a derivatives risk
control/settlement failure specific to Tullett or a major counterparty, as Warren
Buffett and Charlie Munger regularly warn.
Tullett had GBP12.5bb in outstanding customer trades at year-end, so like
all broker-dealers they face significant risk from a major settlement/counterparty
failure. However, the NY Fed in 2006
forced dealers to clean up a large derivatives settlement backlog and introduce
an electronic settlement system, so settlement risk should be somewhat
diminished.
A key part of our valuation thesis is
that TLPR will continue to return a large portion of its free cashflow to
investors. If pressure from electronic
markets requires TLPR to begin reinvesting substantial amounts of free cashflow
into improving electronic systems, then our valuation risks being somewhat high
if the market perceives those investments as unproductive or merely
revenue-maintaining.
Tullett has guided that 2007 revenue
will be hurt by the strength of the pound, and expects 2007 revenue to be
backloaded into the second half, so there is execution risk to the 2007
estimates above.
Also, as in any business where the
“main assets ride the elevators down every night”, TLPR is vulnerable to
poaching of its brokers by competitors, although that seems to be a largely
low-level skirmish that has been ongoing in the business for decades. However, losses can sometimes be significant
-- TLPR lost more than 50 brokers in Hong Kong and Singapore in 2005 to BGC, which has
led to extensive litigation by TLPR against BGC. That size of a move may have been unusual, as
BGC was a new entrant to the market and also took 32 brokers from Icap in Hong Kong.
Catalysts
Value-enhancing moves by CEO/controlling shareholder;
acquisition by competitor, exchange or bank; Toscafund (UK activist hedge
fund involved in ABN Amro takeover) is a 13% holder. Recent activist targets in this general space
include ESPD and Investment Technology Group (ITG), where DE Shaw has demanded
a recapitalization or sale.
Major recent events in the equity and
derivative exchanges and broker/dealer sector:
May 22, 2006: NYSE
Group, parent of the New York Stock Exchange, said it was buying Euronext for $14.3 billion. The deal
closed later in 2006, with NYSE defeating a rival bid from Deutsche Boerse.
Sept. 1, 2006: Intercontinental
Exchange Inc., a mostly electronic-trading market owned by major Wall
Street brokers, announced a plan to buy New
York Board of Trade for $1.1 billion, a deal that closed earlier this
year.
Feb. 1, 2007: NYSE Group and the Tokyo Stock Exchange agreed to an alliance in technology and
marketing but no cross-shareholdings.
Feb. 23, 2007: London Stock Exchange and the Tokyo Stock
Exchange agreed to explore ways to cooperate, including operating a market for
growth companies. No cross-shareholdings were involved.
March 15, 2007: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) launched
a surprise $9.9 billion stock bid for CBOT Holdings, designed to break up that
company's planned merger with Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings.
April 18, 2007: Tullett
acknowledges it has bid $12/share for ESPD; bid rejected on following day by
BGC Partners/Cantor Fitzgerald
May 1, 2007: Deutsche
Bourse agrees to buy International Stock Exchange (ISE, a new US options exchange) for $2.8
billion.
May 21, 2007: NYSE
CFO states that ICE has put itself “in play” by bidding for the CBOT.
May 30, 2007: BGC
Partners cancels its IPO, announces merger into eSpeed which values eSpeed at
$9.75/share (ESPD now trading around $9/share)
Value-enhancing moves by CEO/controlling shareholder; acquisition by competitor, exchange or bank; Toscafund (UK activist hedge fund involved in ABN Amro takeover) is a 13% holder. Recent activist targets in this general space include ESPD and Investment Technology Group (ITG), where DE Shaw has demanded a recapitalization or sale.