announced the sale of its paper packaging business for $240m, which represents about a 10x EBITDA multiple, helping to reach their leverage target goals a year early. Compared to 18 months ago, we see more synergies ahead, a better business mix with high margins and lower leverage. With packaging
finally on firm footing, we believe the headlines surrounding the printing business are weighing on TC shares.
Printing Business
Andreas947 did a great job of explaining the printing business and its segments so we defer to his write-up on this front. One of the biggest questions for TCL is how fast the printing business will decline.
This segment has very high customer concentration – the top 5 customers comprise about80% of the revenues on the printing side so losing a customer would be painful. We don’t know for sure who is on the top 5 list, but our impression is that the largest customers are Shoppers Drug Mart, Jean Coutu, Sobeys, Walmart, Canadian Tire, Loblaws, Home Depot and Lowe’s.
There are a couple headwinds in this business. The first involves digital flyers taking share from print flyers. We’ve spoken to people managing both digital and print flyer orders and it is a little hard to estimate how quickly print flyers will decline. The advantages of digital flyers are that they offer more targeted opportunities will the ability to more accurately measure the effectiveness of your ads. Still, Canadian consumers have been conditioned to check for physical flyers for coupons before making routine purchases at the hardware store, pharmacy, or grocery stores. Many of our industry calls pointed to this conditioning as a reason for retailers to be careful when weaning customers from print to digital. Of course, we expect print flyers will decline, and to deal with the uncertainty we build in heavier declines than we would normally expect. Even with what we believe to be bearish forecasts, TCL still appears to offer an attractive opportunity.
Over the past few quarters, the company talked about somewhere between 1 and 3 print customers that began testing dark weeks. This resulted in those retailers moving from weekly to bi-monthly flyering. This had a material impact on profits in 2019. Our understanding is that printing fewer pages consistently isn’t a huge margin problem for the company, but the on/off nature of dark weeks was challenging. Much of this has been resolved as we head into 2020 – the company claims 2 customers have returned to normal weekly output (although perhaps with fewer pages). We expect print pages to decline, but are encouraged by these retailers moving back into a normal schedule, which also meshes with the thesis that Canadian retailers will only move away from print slowly. TC has done a great job of maintaining margins on its business by closing facilities as sales have declined. The company already has a plan in place to close certain facilities if the printing volumes continue to decline.
The largest overhang in printing is due to Publisac, a weekly bag that is delivered to homes in Quebec with coupons from TC’s customers. The City of Montreal is in the process of considering to make the Publisac an opt-in delivery method versus an opt-out. Last week, the local environmental committee recommended to make it an opt-in procedure and there is still uncertainty around this. While we believe it is possible Publisac will be forced to go opt-in in Montreal, the market appears to be pricing in the larger risk; the wider province of Quebec will follow Montreal. Our estimates (below) factor in the complete loss of Publisac in Montreal, as well as an allocation for Montreal flyer printer (despite there being other distribution outlets). This whole policy process will still take years to unfold and while it may provide somewhat of an overhang, it is likely the company will continue seeing cash flows from this business for the next few years.