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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
31	member 5/10/17 5:56PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Anyone still following? 30
Yeah $40MM is too high. The right number seems to me to be about $24MM. Basically, I am taking the difference between Inventory at the end of Q3 2017 and Inventory at the end of... login to read the rest view available tags
30	member 5/09/17 9:20AM Re: Re: Re: Anyone still following? 29
First, I wrote q3/q4 for implied costs when I meant q2/q3 for the $7.5mm LTM from 3/30/16 of Adj EBITDA is 8.8mm. This backs out any one-time costs associated with the Phoenix DC change-over.... login to read the rest view available tags
29	member 5/08/17 11:02PM Re: Re: Anyone still following? 28
I'm not sure how you get to to $7.5MM of DC costs for 3q/4q. Can you detail that? The number to me looks closer to $40MM (i.e. most of the cash burn which was... login to read the rest view available tags
28	member 5/08/17 9:09AM Re: Anyone still following? 27
I am still following it. I think this is a likely zero. Accounting for their fiscal 4q, they will be LTM Adjusted EBITDA negative. Let's call it $-2mm. Then you have $4mm of stock comp and... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
27	member 5/06/17 8:38PM Anyone still following?
This was an amazing short. Where was I? Stock now at $2.30 down 30% on Thursday...which implies a $141MM enterprise value ($104MM market cap and $37MM-ish in net debt). This is 15% of sales... login to read the rest view available tags
26	member 9/29/15 11:36AM Head cheerleader quits
Much to the chagrin of Omi, TUES has lost its head cheerleader. For those still following, Rouleau resigned this morning. While 76 years old, Rouleau wanted to leave on a high note and would have stayed... login to read the rest view available tags
21	member 5/01/15 10:01AM Re: TUES is garbage 20
I agree. My basic observations: 1. Inventory up 8.6% on 3.8% sales increase leaves some margin risk going forward. In addition, looks like no cash flow going forward as he ramps inventory. 2. Still closing stores pretty quickly... login to read the rest view available tags
16	member 11/20/14 10:43AM Re: 100% agree 15
Your math seems about right. Valuation still seems ridiculous to me in pricing in peak sales and peak margins that happen even in the bulls case in prob 2018. Clearly, CEO has stabilized the business versus... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 8/22/14 11:37AM RE: Thoughts on earnings? 13
I agree with what you said. Regardless of the games, the comp continues to be quite good. Still a ridiculous valuation but I guess until comps either go sub 5% or operating income looks flattish... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 6/19/14 7:49PM Stores and HG
Just to clarify on the stores looking good, I agree that they have pulled out a good amount of inventory (inventory at 3/31/04 was 205mm vs 261mm 3/31/12) so it is clear stores have been... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 6/19/14 6:00PM RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: maybe so 10
I will respectfully disagree that HGs "has almost no national name recognition." Is there any chance that your city/town is in CO, SC, AL or VA? These are markets where TUES has >20 stores and outnumbers... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 6/19/14 5:39PM RE: RE: RE: RE: maybe so 6
Just my opinion, but HG has almost no national name recognition. Obviously does regionally depending on area as you point out, but TUES has the benefit of history. Course, everybody and his brother sells this stuff... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 6/19/14 5:19PM RE: RE: RE: RE: maybe so 5
Slack - below is how I pencil out the quick upside. Scott may have a different take but hopefully this is helpful. TUES plans to end the year in the low 800s in terms of store... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 6/19/14 5:14PM RE: RE: RE: RE: maybe so 5
Another way to look at it is that KIRK has 88% higher Sales/Square Foot (adjusting for ~$20.3 million in ecommerce sales), while having a roughly equal EV/Sq. Foot as TUES. view available tags
6	member 6/19/14 5:04PM RE: RE: RE: maybe so 4
scott265 - thanks for the write-up. I understand where paul is coming from and can't argue with the fact that there are better operators at the helm. However, I agree with most of the points that scott... login to read the rest view available tags
3	member 6/19/14 1:12PM RE: maybe so 1
One more thought which I did not really go into but it is relevant for your why short it here: Homegoods does 12% operating margins (which does not even include some overhead from TJX). Homegoods has... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 6/19/14 1:05PM RE: maybe so 1
Thanks for the comments. I guess I'm confused by what you mean when you say newer stores. Do you mean the 16 relocations? Or you just mean in general your gut of the stores you... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2014	2015
Price:	19.00	EPS	breakeven	$0.40
Shares Out. (in M):	44	P/E	n/a	50.0x
Market Cap (in $M):	825	P/FCF	n/a	n/a
Net Debt (in $M):	-40	EBIT	-5	20
TEV (in $M):	785	TEV/EBIT	N/A	39.0x
Borrow Cost:	NA

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