Hey Poms,
Nice win on this one. Do you have any opinion on the stock following today's SCOTUS ruling? This is as optically cheap as it's been a while, but obviously there are concerns about patient mix and... login to read the rest
A good premise to start with is that DaVita is a very stable growing business. This quarter and the guidance should be pretty reflective of go-forward performance; 2.5-3.0% volume ex-acquisitions with firm pricing now that... login to read the rest
Yes i am aware the results are very accretive. The lower price in the "long run" is clearly a benefit.
I can't figure out how a quant fund would have accumulated enough (or any stock) during... login to read the rest
Very interesting idea, especially with deal closure risk off the table. I realize there has always been a regulatory/reimbursement risk, which you addressed in your initial write-up.
Anyone have thoughts on the potential new round of headlines? Regulation
This probably has a lot to do with it, so still some uncertainty around the close: https://www.denverpost.com/2019/06/19/colorado-davita-unitedhealth-group-merger/
Agree this should have moved the stock more, and I believe would have in the absence of the suit.
On Buyback Price: headline is that they have to wait for the DMG sale to start buying again, so it's the post-sale stock price that likely matters
DaVita is levered to 4.52x vs. a stated target... login to read the rest
I agree that DVA (still long) seems incredibly cheap for the reasons you mentioned.
On DMG, the firms remain tight-lipped and the deal not closing seems largely priced in. The only comment I've seen recently was a parenthetical /... login to read the rest
I think the regulatory impact on shares isn't new and has been priced in throughout DaVita's existence; the dialysis comp set has typically traded at an attractive cash flow yield for its growth profile. Especially with California... login to read the rest
Poms - thanks for the write-up.
I was wondering what your thoughts are on the argument that in a Prop 8 win or lose scenario, DVA and peers will trade with a regulatory overhang moving forward,... login to read the rest
On the "stable" pricing and "less bad" funadmental backdrop, I think we're really talking about economics per treatment, which I'd view as follows.
Revenue Dynamics
Commercial Pay, 1/3 of revenue: management has guided 'stable' without any quantiative... login to read the rest
In an attempt to address mko2016 (and others) on legislation: I wouldn't say this a prediction of a good legislative outcome; it's more weighing the potentialities on either side against each other and comparing that... login to read the rest
I broadly agree with this thesis. The public isn't shedding any tears because insurance companies lose money on dialysis coverage and i wouldn't expect them to if dva makes less in reimbursement. The system more
The risk from the CA ballot is far greater than you portray, at least in our minds. If the ballot in CA is successful and a cap is put on the dialysis industry, then it could catch... login to read the rest
I do not think there is more headline risk re the AKF, but I do think there is still risk long term. I understand AKF paying for patients' med supp plan given Medicare doesn't have... login to read the rest
I think you'll find there are a many different explanations for why someone wouldn't automatically switch, but i think they all come back to the cost/benefit of the patient. Some have coverage from their union... login to read the rest
Medicare doesn't have an OOP max and dialysis will bleed you dry. MA does have OOP max, but they won't take you so you have to go FFS. Patients could be on their employer plan
Good writeup, thanks.
Question: since all dialysis patients have the option of immediately switching to Medicare, why doesn't everyone do that? Why would people voluntarily pay much higher commercial premiums and deductibles?
Are you sure you want to close this position TRITON INTERNATIONAL LTD?
By closing position, I’m notifying VIC Members that at today’s market price, I no longer am recommending this position.
Flag TRITON INTERNATIONAL LTD for Removal
Are you sure you want to Flag this idea TRITON INTERNATIONAL LTD for removal?
Flagging an idea indicates that the idea does not meet the standards of the club and you believe it should be removed from the site. Once a threshold has been reached the idea will be removed.
You Cannot Submit Message ... Yet
You currently do not have message posting privilages, there are
1 way you can get the privilage.
You can apply for full membership by submitting an investment idea of your own. Or if you are in reactivation status, you need to reactivate your full membership.