2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Price: | 28.50 | EPS | $1.28 | $1.60 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 163 | P/E | 22.3x | 17.8x | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 4,000 | P/FCF | 22.7x | 18.1x | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 164 | EBIT | 283 | 364 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 4,164 | TEV/EBIT | 14.7x | 11.0x |
Sign up for free guest access to view investment idea with a 45 days delay.
Following the spinoff of TripAdvisor from Expedia expected December 21st (tomorrow), we recommend a long position in TRIP. Shares of TRIP are expected to trade at c. $28.50 and we see fair value at $33-35, i.e. approximately 20% above current value.
TripAdvisor was founded in 2000 by Stephen Kaufer and he remains the company’s CEO today. TRIP was acquired in 2004 by IAC in 2004 and later span off in 2005 along with Expedia. From 2005 till December 2011 TripAdvisor traded as subsidiary of Expedia. IAC is the investment vehicle controlled by Barry Diller. Barry Diller retained majority voting in Expedia following the spinoff in 2005 and will retain voting control (60%) over TripAdvisor.
TRIP is a pure play travel focus media company. TRIP boasts over 20m members worldwide who have posted over 50 million reviews on hotels and restaurants worldwide. TRIP’s members have historically shown a degree of loyalty and a sense of “reciprocity” to the website in that visitors not only free ride reading other travellers’ reviews but they then contribute by writing their own reviews following a trip. This reciprocity ensures that the content keeps growing and is always up to date. Because of TRIP’s growing importance as must go-to website for worldwide travellers, TRIP attracts many suppliers (hotels, airlines and online travel agents) keen to advertise their services on the website. The vast majority of TRIP’s revenue (90%+) are advertising related: either click-based advertising (c. 78% of total) or display-based advertising (c. 13% of total). The remainder is subscription based revenue and other smaller revenue streams (e.g. vacation rentals).
TripAdvisor is amongst the largest players in the global online travel market with 44m monthly unique visitors. Visitors are attracted by TRIP’s content that is becoming increasingly paramount in deciding holiday destinations for millions of travellers worldwide. According to a June 2011 Nielsen research, word of mouth content is the most important source of decision making in purchasing a travel service. At the end of the day, travellers have become sophisticated customers that are naturally sceptical on suppliers’ bombastic promises via advertisements in traditional media (newspapers, TV, radio, websites). By far the most important trusted source is recommendation from other customers, preferable from customers that are known. This is exactly what TripAdvisor provides its customers: a free access to a database of recommendations from other customers.
TripAdvisor is also a social media. It is integrated in other social media like Facebook (57m Facebook connections) and is in itself a community of travellers. Other travellers value their friends’ recommendations more than anything and this content is extremely valuable to suppliers.
TRIP’s strategy is to grow its customer base in a virtuous cycle: better content (i.e. better and more complete reviews) attracts more customers which, in turn, will add to content quality. This virtuous cycle stimulates traffic and TRIP monetises this traffic via advertising.
TripAdvisor also owns other important properties, in particular:
With over 50m reviews and opinion on over 500k hotels and 700k restaurants worldwide, TripAdvisor is by far the largest travel media platform in the world. With c. 50m unique visitors, it sits at the very top of the Travel Website landscape, above Booking.com with c. 30m uniques and Expedia with 27m. It operates in 30 countries in 21 languages.
TripAdvisor |
|||
Capitalisation data |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
Share Price |
28.50 |
28.50 |
28.50 |
Shares Out (avg) - diluted |
140 |
139 |
135 |
Market Cap |
4,001 |
3,949 |
3,845 |
Net Debt |
163 |
95 |
(21) |
EV |
4,164 |
4,044 |
3,824 |
P&L |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
Revenue |
636 |
796 |
971 |
Growth (%) |
31.3% |
25.0% |
22.0% |
EBITDA |
324 |
403 |
490 |
Margin (%) |
50.8% |
50.6% |
50.5% |
EBIT - GAAP |
283 |
364 |
446 |
Margin (%) |
44.4% |
45.8% |
45.9% |
EPS-adj |
$1.28 |
$1.60 |
$2.04 |
Growth (%) |
26% |
27% |
|
Free Cash Flow |
176 |
218 |
266 |
Valuation |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
P/E |
22.3x |
17.8x |
14.0x |
EV/EBITDA |
12.9x |
10.0x |
7.8x |
FCF yield |
4% |
6% |
7% |
EV / EBITDA |
12.9x |
10.0x |
7.8x |
Barriers to entry – TripAdvisor is in our opinion a highly defensible business with significant moats
TripAdvisor benefits from long term tailwinds that will sustain high growth for the foreseeable future:
Healthy margins and cash generation
Efficient capital allocation and sound balance sheet
Relatively cheap valuation for high growth stock
Given TRIP’s high growth and desirable business characteristics, we would expect it to trade at premium to other media / fast growing internet stocks. Moreover, TripAdvisor is the only publicly traded pure-play travel advertising company. Travel advertising is a massive market with approximately $39bn spent in 2011 globally. Of this $39bn, less than 15% is online (c. $5bn) and IDC estimated that online ad advertising will grow at 15% CAGR until 2015. Being the only pure play on this theme, we believe TripAdvisor should fetch a premium valuation to peers.
It’s difficult to find a proper comparable universe for TripAdvisor but we belief the following companies are a good benchmark:
Based on these comps, we think that TripAdvisor valuation is very reasonable at 17x forward P/E and less than 10x forward EV / EBITDA. At our target price of $34, TRIP would still trade at 12x EV/EBITDA 2012 and less than 10x 2013, which we think is reasonable given TRIP’s growth profile and business characteristics.
Mkt cap |
EV |
Gross |
EBITDA |
EV / EBITDA |
P/E |
P/E |
||
Price |
local ccy |
Margin (%) |
Current |
Current |
Next |
|||
Priceline |
459.7 |
22,887 |
20,623 |
61.9% |
27.1% |
13.9x |
19.9x |
15.1x |
Makemytrip |
24.0 |
886 |
745 |
49.0% |
4.8% |
59.4x |
112.9x |
49.8x |
HomeAway |
20.9 |
1,683 |
2,537 |
84.7% |
17.6% |
40.8x |
51.6x |
37.4x |
Demand Media |
6.5 |
548 |
599 |
45.1% |
20.4% |
7.3x |
27.1x |
20.2x |
|
64.9 |
6,420 |
7,132 |
81.6% |
16.1% |
90.4x |
237.9x |
126.1x |
Travelzoo |
26.7 |
427 |
319 |
93.6% |
23.0% |
8.0x |
19.5x |
15.5x |
Average |
|
|
|
69.3% |
18.2% |
36.6x |
78.1x |
44.0x |
Tripadvisor |
28.5 |
4,001 |
4,164 |
98.0% |
50.8% |
12.9x |
22.3x |
17.8x |
Discount |
-64.9% |
-71.4% |
-59.6% |
Likely takeover candidate
Whilst very difficult to predict, we think TripAdvisor would be the perfect takeover candidate for someone like Google. It is exactly the kind of business that would fit Google perfectly. It makes money the same way Google does (CPC and display advertising), it’s free (key Google’s proposition) and it’s content rich. Moreover, Google already tried to copy TripAdvisor via Google Places but the results so far were not very encouraging. It’s clearly an area that Google is prioritising. In 2011 Google closed the acquisition of ITA, a software that powers many online travel search engines and metasearch websites. TripAdvisor also provides metasearch capabilities and owns the 2nd largest metasearch website in China. Clearly, Google could drive TripAdvisor monetisation extracting additional revenue opportunities and cost synergies (Google is the biggest source of traffic to TripAdvisor). We know Google is very acquisitive and definitely has the cash ($42bn) to acquire a company like TripAdvisor (a 40% premium offer would value TRIP at $5.5bn, equal to 13% of Google’s cash balance or just a few months of Google’s free cash flow generation). Let’s also remind ourselves that Google recently acquired Zagat, a leading restaurant reviews website. It’s clear that this is the kind of business that would fit perfectly in the Google portfolio.
Whilst a longer shot, we think that the likes of Microsoft and Yahoo could be interested in TripAdvisor. For Microsoft, it would be a nice complementary asset to Bing, helping it gain market share in online search in the travel business. For Yahoo, it could be a powerful source of content to offset the constant market share erosion they suffer in search.
Google Disintermediation - In November 2010, Google launched a competing product called Google Places. At the time, it was perceived as a significant threat to TripAdvisor. Google Places when launched diverted significant traffic away from TripAdvisor. TripAdvisor complained because a) Google was using TripAdvisor’s content (i.e. reviews from TripAdvisor website) including third party review synopses in its results, and b) Google Places would show up above TripAdvisor in organic searches which made no sense given TRIP’s popularity. If the reader now tries to search in Google “Hotel Review New York”, he or she will find 2 interesting results: a) TripAdvisor appears above Google and, b) Google Places offers only Google reviews, so its content is by far inferior to TRIP’s content. It appears that Google rectified its original strategy and backed down, this happened approximately in July-August 2011. This is a proof of TRIP’s superior content and if anything it shows that TRIP is a formidable asset that could be a likely target for Google.
Expedia - Another market concern is the fact that Expedia is a very large client of TripAdvisor. In the last 12 months, Expedia represented c. 25% of TRIP’s sales, or c. $150m. The concern is that after the 1 year agreement following the spin-off, Expedia, not owning TRIP anymore, will purchase fewer services from TripAdvisor. Whilst this is a real concern, we believe that Expedia will continue to invest heavily in marketing going forward so even if on the margin it may reduce purchases from Expedia, this should not be material. TRIP should not have much trouble in replacing eventual lost business from Expedia with other OTAs.
Downturn - Finally, travel is obviously very cyclical and many investors shun away from travel businesses as we are heading for global slowdown. We would just point out that in 2009, with global GDP down 2.5% and US GDP down 3.5%, TripAdvisor sales still rose almost 20%.
TripAdvisor is a unique asset benefitting from strong secular tailwinds, exposed to the hottest “themes” in the market, i.e. online penetration, online advertising monetisation and social media. TripAdvisor enjoys significant barriers to entry that enables it to earn 50%+ EBITDA margins. As such, it is a premium asset which we believe could be a takeover candidate for the likes of Google, Microsoft and possibly Yahoo. Such premium asset is in our opinion undervalued due to concerns of disintermediation risks associated with Google and general macro concerns of travel slowdown in 2012. Trading at less than 8x EV / EBITDA 2013E, we see substantial upside as more investors become familiar and comfortable with TripAdvisor story.
show sort by |
Are you sure you want to close this position TRIPADVISOR INC -SPN?
By closing position, I’m notifying VIC Members that at today’s market price, I no longer am recommending this position.
Are you sure you want to Flag this idea TRIPADVISOR INC -SPN for removal?
Flagging an idea indicates that the idea does not meet the standards of the club and you believe it should be removed from the site. Once a threshold has been reached the idea will be removed.
You currently do not have message posting privilages, there are 1 way you can get the privilage.
Apply for or reactivate your full membership
You can apply for full membership by submitting an investment idea of your own. Or if you are in reactivation status, you need to reactivate your full membership.
What is wrong with message, "".