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23	member 11/08/16 2:32PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Update 22
If I understand my conversations with management and the financials, Toromont does not hedge its inventory. From the annual report: "Derivative Financial Instruments and Hedge Accounting Foreign exchange contracts are transacted with financial institutions to hedge foreign... login to read the rest view available tags
22	member 11/08/16 2:01PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Update 20
To your point on the margin pressure, don't they hedge? They are opaque on it but it may take a few quarters of flat y/y CAD to unmask the overearning view available tags
21	member 11/08/16 11:59AM Update
With stock at C$40, the TEV is C$3.2bn. With EBIT '16 at about C$205mm, and NOPAT at about $154mm, it trades at 21x unlevered FCF (also earnings). The constant-dollar revenue was down 4% y-o-y. And constant-dollar op... login to read the rest view available tags
20	member 11/08/16 11:05AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Update 19
The new equipment sales part of the short thesis has worked better (for the shorts) than expected. The services and parts has worked about as expected. But the used equipment sales and CIMCO have done much... login to read the rest view available tags
19	member 11/08/16 10:42AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Update 18
Putting aside what the stock price has done (you could have thrown darts at a board in Q1 2016 and been up on whatever stock your arrow pierced), aren't the fundamentals playing out? This was... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 11/08/16 10:25AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Update 17
jso, I hope your comment is at least partly sarcastic because the stock is up over 30% since my write-up. I will have some detailed comments later, but my thesis has been a mixed bag. They have... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 11/08/16 9:26AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Update 16
Straw, You see Q3 earnings? Looks like your thesis is playing out pretty much like you anticipated. 1 view available tags
16	member 4/27/16 3:41PM Re: Re: Re: Update 15
jso, I think the stock is over-priced, but my short thesis was wrong in Q1 (but correct in Q4). While I was quite surprised by the Q4 result price action, I am not as surprised by... login to read the rest view available tags
15	member 4/27/16 12:37PM Re: Re: Update 14
Not sure I get why the market is so excited about the quarter. consensus will move up a tad on this but multiple is 19x (highest in history). And CAD is finally comping flat y/y... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 4/26/16 10:16PM Re: Update 13
Yes. Still short. I am going thru Q1 results still, but quick thoughts: - Q4 came in very much as I expected. Stock got hit hard initially (down as much as 10% if I recall) but... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 4/26/16 8:38PM Update
Straw - are you still following this one? Curious if you have updated thoughts, am starting to dig in here. view available tags
12	member 2/02/16 9:29PM Re: Question for straw 11
Those % sound correct to me. And all of refrigeration is in USD straightaway. To be clear, the equipment is sold/rented in CAD. The transaction happens in Canada and hence is done in CAD. But the... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 2/02/16 8:58PM Question for straw 10
Straw, When I look at their financials, only 50% of the equipment group sales are new equipment sales - the rest is used equipment and rentals. Looking at their website, it looks like used equipment is... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 2/02/16 10:29AM Re: Construction Question 9
I do not think public infrastructure spend has peaked. I explain in more detail in note 6. But note that the increase in public infrastructure pre-Trudeau was more than overcome by the drop in other biz view available tags
8	member 2/01/16 10:09AM Re: Re: Re: How cyclical? 7
The margin effects (less pressure on margins; no windfalls from inventory due to FX) would cancel and so we could use the C$210mm plus C$15mm (for FX effects on Q1 and Q2 to current FX... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 2/01/16 9:14AM Re: Re: How cyclical? 6
Very helpful! thx... If they do grow revenue 3% in the "bull case" you mentiontion, what is the EPS/Cash flow per share? view available tags
6	member 1/31/16 6:20PM Re: How cyclical? 5
Siren, I think you are thinking about it correctly, but with the following caveats: I have mining and quarry at about 30% of sales. And including mining, I have cyclical end users at about two-thirds of sales... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
4	member 1/29/16 12:20PM Re: Relative value 2
lpartners, Great questions. I have been short both CAT and FTT (and URI) as part of related macro/sector thesis. I do not size shorts to the same magnitude as longs so happy to diversify thesis across several... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
3	member 1/28/16 7:45PM Re: leases 1
bafana, I should have been clearer. Toromont is mainly a dealer with a small leasing business. Their leasing biz is similar to URI. I certainly agree with your assessment of equipment leasing businesses, but that is... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2016	2017
Price:	28.90	EPS	0	0
Shares Out. (in M):	79	P/E	16	0
Market Cap (in $M):	2,274	P/FCF	0	0
Net Debt (in $M):	220	EBIT	210	0
TEV (in $M):	2,500	TEV/EBIT	11.9	0
Borrow Cost:	Available 0-15% cost

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