How I do Things
My firm uses a methodology patterned after the books of Peter Lynch which involves populating a
portfolio containing an array of stock chocies, including fast growers, stalwarts, asset plays, and to a lesser extent cyclicals and turnarounds and slow growers.
The resulting portfolio composition is entirely decision based involving lots of lots of stock picks along with a monthly
rotating assssment to add/subtract based on story and price changes involving a wide range of selections,
thereby ensuring that no single decision determines my results.
This means that my holding periods can range from very short (month or two) to very long (my style is often buy and hold and sell and buy the same ideas again), with the underlying idea expressed by John Train that if I am an above average investor, my decision making will invariably pull me higher. Lastly, as a one person firm I have to deal with both client reporting, pedestrian requests, and a whole host of things to serve my clients and earn a living, so my style has
always embraced the idea that scratch and sniff pattern based research based on critical factors was inherently more effective – for me – than detailed research on any specific company, which means that I typically look at
hundreds and hundreds of companies in any single year (Value Line is a primary source). Course, I also get bored easily so this fits my personality (esp. since I must be 100% self-sufficient beyond email buddies or discussions on bulletin boards; I am 100% self taught), and want to achieve good results on a consistent basis, but there is a limit to how much I know, how long I will spend on any single idea before moving on, and how l many filings I read. I try to protect myself by favoring the obvious business model, one that generates a lot of cash.
I believe this style also benefits from a common man effect, where if I recognize an obvious value then odds
are that it won’t be long before someone else finds it too. Consequently, I define "value" far more limited than most: I major avoid restructurings, value based on future assumptions that radically differ from current performance, and value
based on usually anything other than free cash flow, and I don't short. With FCF, I look for companies with a CFFO to CapEx ratio of 4x or better (not dogmatic) but really like those 10x and above. I like seeing BS that get better over time, and I think the use of debt is inherently a bad move unless paid down quickly (a lesson learned from following hundreds of capital killing moves by retailers).
I also believe the market is efficient but it usually doesn’t know any more than I do about the future in
companies I follow. I also like stories where dollar cost averaging is an effective strategy (and thus the story can be followed a LONG time) but spent little time forecasting beyond the next few years. Thus, I don't build models like many do and don't make intrisic value calculations of EBITDA determinations beyond keep track of a 100 to 200 companies on a custom spreeadsheet along with screening techniques that history has shown add value (e.g., a stalwart screening list based on PE ratios - see my Lowe's writeup earlier this year).
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That said, I offer up X-T as my latest investment idea though admittedly this was a much better setup at
the begin of 2016 but it is still a stock I find attractive.
Thesis
X-t is a good business trading at a reasonable price and is an attractive business for the long-term. This
company features the usual exchange operator attractions including 1) a solid BS with minimal debt
levels, 2) generating a ton of FCF, with 3) margins and earnings tied to volatile volume changes, currently
4) paying down debt and likely a rising dividend, with 5) restructuring charges set to tail down in a few
quarters. Negatives include total dependence on Canadian securities (esp. oil, gas, and minerals) and
currency, inherent tie-in with volume changes which are inherently unpredictable, and competition
which so far has made little inroads.
Business
X-T is the TMX exchange up in Canada. From the Annual Information Form on Sedar:
TMX Group is an integrated, multi-asset class exchange group. TMX Group's businesses operate cash and
derivative markets for multiple asset classes including equities, fixed income and energy. We also provide
clearing facilities, data products and other services to the international financial community.