TIMBERWEST FOREST CORP TWF.U
October 26, 2009 - 1:38pm EST by
member
| 2009 | 2010 | ||||||
| Price: | 4.00 | EPS | -$1.15 | -$0.70 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 78 | P/E | nm | nm | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 312 | P/FCF | nm | nm | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 293 | EBIT | -15 | -7 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 605 | TEV/EBIT | nm | nm | |||
- None found
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| 39 | |
The Deal cited as source. | |
| 38 | |
-With the stock hitting new lows (closing below $5), DFRG hit send on a sloppy PR last evening announcing a reduction in force. I say sloppy b/c it was obviously rushed together in an attempt to get... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
-DFRG did not comment/provide additional detail on the sale process in 1Q earnings.
-Fundamentals continue to disappoint, this time on margins, as they seem to be admitting Barteca margins were overstated. DFRG missed expectations on... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
DFRG released their 10-Q AMC today, ahead of earnings release and CC tomorrow morning...
-With the pending strategic review/sale process, underlying results might not mean much.
-On a GAAP basis, they took another bath: EPS of -$0.55.... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
Thank you. Their beef mix is lower with addition of Barteca and subtraction of Sullivan’s, but still significant at ~23%. I’ve been agnostic on where this goes. Don’t really have a good guess on how... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
My favorite short seller on VIC of the year award goes to FIRE_303 followed by A$AP roc924.
More serious note, how big of an impact on EBITDA would beef/protein prices inflecting have on these guys this | |
| 33 | |
Very well done | |
| 32 | |
Formally closing out the short here as I think risk/reward less attractive now over next few months due to takeover speculation. Still maintaining a short position, but sizing it lower and using $7.50 calls to... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
***Biggest take-aways from quarter were: i) guidance was weak, forward estimates coming down sharply; ii) slashed 2019 capex in half to conserve cash; iii) traffic has been persistently negative even after culling the portfolio losers... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
DFRG announced this AM that they reached an agreement with Engaged Capital (9.9% owner). DFRG added a director to BOD who will oversee a transaction committee and dropped poison pill. Engaged agreed to a standstill at 15%... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Providing a quick update here to highlight something I think people are missing. The net debt estimates used by brokers ($293mm) are way too low, inflating upside potential/target prices by over $2 per share. The... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
My take on latest developments. Interested to hear thoughts/feedback/where I could be off. I do not believe DFRG is a viable take-out candidate at a premium BUT the threat reduces attractiveness of risk/reward on short side in... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Link to letter from Engaged Capital to DFRG's BOD below. More color to come. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181206005323/en/
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| 22 | |
Fire_303,
Thanks for the great write-up and updates! Any thoughts on Engaged?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-investor-to-push-del-friscos-to-sell-itself-1544058181?emailToken=b4eefa3d684b8bcfab5f579669ca1b12comJzkpjC8YBj6V+2aYgalhx+Ly+TgqBDTilKCLu3FIdhopN9iTmHaS0v/dKQx+9GRZ/gpyo18MUKJH8yi0sKtOCDF+bshm8oju0G96b1go%3D&reflink=article_email_share | |
| 21 | |
DFRG released earnings/held CC this morning after releasing the 10-Q after the close on Friday. Surprised by the strength in the stock today. Missed Street on revenue, comps, EBITDA, margins and EPS. Updated 2018 guidance... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
Valid point. Public investors have been assigning irrational multiples to unit growth oriented restaurant names. I would add though that the multiple is still on the high end of where take-outs have occurred historically (9x),... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
thanks for the thoughts on the 2019 numbers. the multiple has compressed significantly already who knows how low (or high) the multiple can go. | |
| 17 | |
rtrdtx:I don't think the numbers mgmt. cited represent an inflection point for a few reasons. 1) The traffic declines are still terrible. 2) DFRG habitually provides misleading, positively spun color on comp trends. Mgmt. offers "green shoots" every call -... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
What do you make of the 4Q comps trending positive? Do you think that's a one-time thing or is this business seeing an inflection point | |
| 15 | |
thanks. what are you expecting for 2019 adjusted ebitda at this point? | |
| 14 | |
DFRG shifted tack again this morning by releasing preliminary top-line results and changing the earnings release date AGAIN to November 12 BMO. They also said that they will release their 10-Q on Friday night. The... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
they have released preliminary numbers this morning.
great call and thanks for the continuous updates. | |
| 12 | |
DFRG issued a PR this morning pushing earnings back to 11/13 BMO. They were scheduled to be released this morning. Cited additional time needed to finalize the accounting and tax treatmenet from Barteca acq., Sullivan's | |
| 11 | |
DFRG reports 3Q earnings BMO on 11/5. My take is that the print is going to be ugly. Continue to believe there is substantial downside in the stock. Earnings estimates still too optimistic and I... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
-DFRG announced the sale of Sullivan’s this morning for a gross price of $32mm. Net proceeds are TBD as tax impact is uncertain. This is at the low end of Street expectations. Piper Jaffray expected... login to read the rest | |
| 9 | |
Debt Re-Pricing
Since reporting 2Q earnings, DFRG has been forced to offer more generous terms to its lenders, despite a heavily dilutive equity raise. The interest rate on DFRG’s term loan increased from L+475 to L+600... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
The follow-on offering announced after the close of trading on Monday finally priced at $8 for gross proceeds (pre-shoe/post-shoe) of $90mm/$103.5mm. Assuming full exercise, I estimate net proceeds of ~$96mm. The offering may have been... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
. | |
| 6 | |
Updates following 2Q earnings... Stock is down over 30% late April, approaching initial target of $10. Not closing out because I think there is much more downside as a result of the expensive (>14x+ ‘18E... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
Thanks Mack. Valid point on the insider buying. Definitely a positive for the stock and insider buying has been pretty good in the past year or so. However, I would also note that the CEO... login to read the rest | |