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32	member 6/19/08 4:38PM RE: thoughts
Unfortunately I wasn't able to attend the CS meeting (Evidently no spots for us peons). I have read the presentation, but if you have any insights from the Q&A, Iwould very much appreciate seeing them.... login to read the rest view available tags
31	member 6/19/08 1:14PM RE: LCC
Sorry it took me some time to get back to you. You can see on page six of the presentation linked below that none of the capacity reductions affected AYR's jetshttp://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/20/200805/CSPresentationJune2008Final.pdf view available tags
30	member 6/18/08 7:25PM thoughts
stock is at 50% of NAV. Any thoughts?Credit Suisse presentation seemed reassuring. Looks like the USAIR airplanes to be sidelined are not AYR's. view available tags
29	member 6/12/08 8:02PM LCC
Any thoughts on LCC's news today that they are going to sideline 10 leased aircraft (6X 737 and 4X A320). These are probably all AYR planes, right? How much longer do they have to make view available tags
28	member 6/11/08 2:59PM RE: RE: updates?
Your analogy between a old honda civic and aircraft is incorrect. The airlines are not redesigned every year it is my understanding that the difference in fuel efficiency between say a 5 year old jet... login to read the rest view available tags
26	member 6/05/08 12:15PM RE: updates?
I have little experience in the airplane industry, but have looked at this a little bit in the past few days and come up with the following:1) AYR provides the exact composition of it's plane... login to read the rest view available tags
25	member 6/05/08 10:49AM updates?
Any one have any thoughts about the recent decisions by AA and UAUA to retire older aircraft? I'm trying to decide if it's bullish or bearish. On one hand, demand for planes is going down--hence... login to read the rest view available tags
22	member 6/04/08 12:06PM global airplane inventory
Algonquin,Do you (or anyone else) know of a good source to get a list of the current global airplane inventory? I am thinking of a database that breaks down the type of aircraft owned... login to read the rest view available tags
21	member 5/14/08 12:42PM Q1 Conf Call
If anyone is stillfollowing this name, I call your attention to the Q1 CC as it lays out the bullish thesis quite well. I have pasted some highlights below. Some key points are that it... login to read the rest view available tags
20	member 5/05/08 9:55AM Financing done
AYR announced a $700m financing on friday evening at Libor +1.75. The stock is ripping this morning and as I said in earlier posts, the market had very much discounted AYRs access to funding and... login to read the rest view available tags
19	member 4/04/08 12:15PM RE: purchase commitments
I think the moment you posted your comment about the stock not moving along with the market rally (which it hadn't been), it shot up ~15-20%.... Roughly speaking, AYR needs $300-400m in the second half of... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 4/01/08 11:44AM RE: any thoughts?
Yes the valuation has become ridiculous in my opinion. Fear has taken over. AYR trades at 0.7x book value. This book value is composed of real tangible/fungible assets that are most likely undervalued on stated... login to read the rest view available tags
15	member 3/25/08 4:49PM RE: Dividend Cut
Yes, definitely unfortunate. Especially considering that management gave every indication that they would not be cutting the dividend. I believe that a dividend cut was priced into the stock, but the size of the cut... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 3/25/08 1:07PM RE: Questions
Distributable cash is cash flow after interest payments. As I argued in the write up, I think book value is understated as they have been depreciating the assets while the actual jets have been appreciating view available tags
11	member 3/11/08 10:13AM NAV
FYI, Citi is out with a note today saying the fair value of NAV is $26.50 using current appraisal data. view available tags
10	member 3/07/08 11:53AM RE: Dividend Policy
The dividend is determined by the board each quarter. They don't have an exact payout formula but have said that the dividend is forward looking based on what they expect to earn in the upcoming... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 3/07/08 6:41AM Dividend Policy
Thanks for the writeup. How do they determine the dividend payout? Is there a particular payout ratio? How often do they reconsider this? Do you expect this level of dividend to be maintained or cut or elimiated? view available tags
7	member 2/29/08 6:38PM Reply to Skyhawk
Thanks for your post. Very interesting and thought provoking. I agree with many of your points. As I mentioned in the write up, this is not a “Buffett” stock. Frankly, I wouldn’t feel comfortable owning... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 2/28/08 3:31PM RE: Credit markets
With regard to 2008 commitments, AYR's CFO said on the most recent conference call that they had adequate financing in place already to fund their remaining commitments for 2008. They currently have $43m in unrestricted... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 2/28/08 3:28PM RE: Questions
1. Fortress owns 37% of AYR and sold ~10m shares in the October 2007 secondary. I think that the Fortress overhang is partially responsible for the sell off in the stock. There is a school... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 2/27/08 8:09PM RE: comments/questions
Skyhawk, I agree with your sentiments exactly. I think you hit the nail on the head. I did the run off analysis last week and it is near where the stock is trading.... login to read the rest view available tags
3	member 2/27/08 7:03PM comments/questions
Interesting idea, but I am skeptical. Do you know what the maturity and terms are on their funding? In general, do they try to secure long-term funding to match the long term nature of the assets? I... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 2/27/08 4:04PM Questions
Algonquin, Have some questions: 1. How much of AYR does Fortress own? 2. What is the median age of their fleet? 3. How do their securitizations work? Are they non-recourse and how long is the maturity? 4. What are the view available tags

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			2010	2011
Price:	12.00	EPS	$1.50	$1.50
Shares Out. (in M):	104	P/E	8.0x	8.0x
Market Cap (in $M):	1,250	P/FCF	12.0x	12.0x
Net Debt (in $M):	-308	EBIT	220	220
TEV (in $M):	942	TEV/EBIT	4.0x	3.6x

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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