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43	member 1/18/16 1:45PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 40
If you look back in time you can see that pricing and deprecation follow each other perfectly every quarter. They are of course dependent of each other. This business is all about making money over... login to read the rest -8 view available tags
42	member 1/18/16 1:41PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 40
My 2 cents on pricing from my experience.... I rented a car a few weeks ago while visiting Seattle. I booked the day of the trip and it was mind boggling how cheap the rate... login to read the rest view available tags
41	member 1/18/16 1:39PM Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 40
Fletch...as I'm sure you recognize, I never stated that it was better to be lucky than intelligent. You're obviously a lot more intelligent than anybody who was long this stock, since you made money and... login to read the rest -5 view available tags
39	member 1/18/16 10:36AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 38
Fletch, Your response to my comment further confirms my impression of your lack of understanding of this business...but i have to agree with zzz007 that it is better to be lucky than intelligent. I never said that... login to read the rest -12 view available tags
37	member 1/18/16 8:03AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 36
Fletch, Nice work on this one. I'm not close enough to this one to weigh in on avahaz's comments, but I do know that it's always important as a public market investor to remember that it's... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
36	member 1/18/16 6:19AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 35
Actually, pretty much 100% of the YTD EPS downgrade has been due to FX. 30c of the YTD c.35c EPS downgrade is due to FX impact on the international business and another few cents due... login to read the rest -6 view available tags
34	member 1/17/16 2:44PM Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 33
Thanks Fletch, So far the entire downward revision to EPS has been due to FX translation. When do you expect any actual fundamental deterioration in the business to start showing in numbers? view available tags
27	member 6/25/15 2:19PM Re: Price Increases are not sticking 26
What is moving the stock today? Where are you getting your data re:Enterprise? view available tags
26	member 6/25/15 11:08AM Price Increases are not sticking
As expected price increases are not sticking. Enterprise (the largest player in car rentals) is not playing along with the price increases and has elected to gain market share. While the company continues to deny (and... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 2/02/15 10:54AM Re: real competition 10
These are way too small to matter right now. Only operate in a few markets. I've been asking Getaround to come to NYC for years and they have been shut down here by regulators. view available tags
16	member 2/02/15 10:40AM Re: Re: Clarification and Response to a few Posts 14
I'll look into the SanFran market, but as i said, i don't really care about the evidence that it is has happened. I am trying to say that it will be happening and anecdotal evidence of... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 2/02/15 10:02AM Re: Clarification and Response to a few Posts 13
I don't agree w/your conclusion on NYC example for reasons I stated, but if you don't like then what are you seeing at SFO in San Francisco? I'd pull that data and look at car... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 2/02/15 9:52AM Clarification and Response to a few Posts
I need to be clear about my thesis here. Avis is trading at a high multiple that basically assumes that they will have solid growth in the years ahead. Much of this growth is from... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 2/02/15 6:46AM Re: airport access 11
See p. 55 - they go through the mode of transport for originating and departing passengersfor all the NYC airports. http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2013.pdf What you note is that rental cars are only 5% market share. Taxi/limosine = 40% (to... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 2/02/15 12:49AM airport access
i would find it interesting to know what percentage of airports have rules prohibiting pickups of passengers by non-taxi/limo licensed vehicles. it is my undertanding that most of the uber etc vehicles are not so... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 2/01/15 11:00PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: questions 7
Rii brings up a great point: can you analyze car rental in NYC? Uber penetration is deep/liquid and parking cars here is generally expensive/a pain. So this would be one of the first markets to... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 2/01/15 10:58PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: questions 7
I think this a really interesting one to debate. We have to start by conceding that rental car is cheaper per hour and therefore it all becomes a question of utilization and convenience. - Cost of... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 2/01/15 5:11PM Pushback on the thesis
A lot has been made of the Uber threat to rental cars. However I'm not convinced the markets really overlap. Uber is a taxi-competitive business. All major and minor metros have taxi services - virtually... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
1	member 2/01/15 4:28PM questions
thanks for writeup. in terms of the adverse impact of uber etc on the rental car industry, you focus on car but not the other rental cos. did you look at them too and decide that... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2010	2011
Price:	12.00	EPS	$1.50	$1.50
Shares Out. (in M):	104	P/E	8.0x	8.0x
Market Cap (in $M):	1,250	P/FCF	12.0x	12.0x
Net Debt (in $M):	-308	EBIT	220	220
TEV (in $M):	942	TEV/EBIT	4.0x	3.6x

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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