TECH DATA CORP TECD
March 18, 2020 - 8:04pm EST by
member
| 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| Price: | 100.00 | EPS | nm | nm | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 35 | P/E | nm | nm | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 3,540 | P/FCF | nm | nm | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 600 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 4,150 | TEV/EBIT | nm | nm | |||
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Description
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| 28 | |
Smarkeu - thanks for the high quality idea and follow-up comments here. Couple questions on FMX specifically:
1) Has HL flagged potential size of opp / have you got a view on it?
2) Are you thinking... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
We are at $0.82 for 2022 after adjusting for insurance sale and a $500mn buyback. Not assuming anything on rates at this point but post fed taper keep an eye on ntmbanc index on bberg | |
| 26 | |
Smarkeu:
Just refreshing our look at BGCP. Can you walk through any updates you have to your views on '22 earnings since this was written?
Thanks
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| 25 | |
BGCP closed the sale of its insurance brokerage business today, in-line with the timing of their Q4 guidance for the sale closing. This is a postive catalyst as it simplifies the business and provides additional... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
This stock has materially lagged the market over the last couple quarters despite solid execution on asset sales and share buybacks and Fenics growth.
It seems like this recent increase in rates and impending commencement of tapering... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
queegs
I hold this name and it's absolutely Cannibalization. I've been tracking it in detail, extracted from quarterly remarks and filings. Lutnick has made it clear several times. It's a bit messy to track, especially since... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
Overall, the risk reward here continues to seem very favorable given continued Fenics share gains, strong free cash flow, and significant buyback.
The 10-Q came out post-close on Friday showing that they bought about... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/howard-lutnick-takes-aim-at-cme-s-dominant-u-s-rates-exchange
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| 20 | |
Fenics UST competes directly with brokertec (CME) and has taken 15% of market share from them in the past two years. In any case, Howard has made it clear he is going after the CME... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
The risk/reward seems right now to be as best as its been in the last few months.
Selling seems to be purely driven by broad derisking in financials and market generally, despite improving BGC fundamentals and significant... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Thank you for the fascinating idea, Smarkeu. I've been digging more into it lately, and have a few questions.
1) In one of your charts, you charted BGCP rates revenues against Treasury cash volume. Is it... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Correct. This is the best play on int rate volatility.
We think there is very little appreciation for how much revenues can explode higher if and when QE ends. The inter dealer trading volumes key off of... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
Excellent call so far, while no one is really talking about this it seems like thesis is on track and then some, insurance biz sold for $500M (+$100M over your conservative estimate).
What I think is... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
they always guide based on the first month of the quarter. You can track volumes on bberg using ntmbanc index. thats a good proxy at least for rates.
fenics growth accelerating and now it seems like... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
Thoughts on the quarter / conference call?
I'm just getting around to looking at this one, but it looks like Fenics and insurance are performing well and based on the call, the value unlock thesis is... login to read the rest | |
| 11 | |
Thanks very much for writeup. A couple questions:1. Could you help bridge to your FY22 voice earnings projection? Seems like you are modeling a lot of growth there.2. Isn’t the issue with comping the headline... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
Should have mentioned in the write-up that the tax leakage from any Fenics deal is very little. One of the advantages of the partnership unit structure is that you can always "harvest" a tax shield... login to read the rest | |
| 9 | |
Compass868, in your 25x EBIT target to for Fenics, on private deals/takeout value isn't there a substantial tax drag (you value it at ~$3.50 ps) on these assets should they sell this piece of the... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
Thanks for the great idea. BGCP seems like a no-brainer with multi-bagger potential. I listened to BGCP's CEO's comments from the recent Sandler call, and all I can say is WOW. I have never heard... login to read the rest | |
| 6 | |
we are assuming 20% growth from the 4Q'20 run-rate of $83mn a quarter. 4Q itself was 33% yoy growth, so this is a fair assumption. | |
| 4 | |
In a previous write-up, Danconia17 addressed the mechanics of the stock comp quite eloquently, so i will just paste their reply below. Majority of the stock comp expense is related to a non-cash charge based on the difference... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
Hi there,
thanks for the very interesting and well explained idea.
I know this was touched on briefly in prior threads, but I'm not sure I entirely understood the answer.
Why does it make sense that they add... login to read the rest | |
| 2 | |
Thanks. Those are fair points. We are being conservative here and there is definitely more upside to the multiples.
One additional source of multiple expansion may be when BGC rolls out its wholesale cryptocurrency trading platform in... login to read the rest | |