Spirit Airlines Inc. SAVE

January 23, 2013 - 11:10am EST by

member

						2013	2014
Price:		19.60		EPS		$1.30	$1.90
Shares Out. (in M):		73		P/E		15.0x	10.0x
Market Cap (in $M):		1,430		P/FCF		15.0x	10.0x
Net Debt (in $M):		-400		EBIT		165	240
TEV (in $M):		1,030		TEV/EBIT		6.0x	4.0x

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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
20	member 7/09/13 4:18PM RE: RE: Author Exit Recommendation 19
Andrew, no, just price. Trying to be disciplined on exit. Shares are getting close to my estimate of fair value which, admittedly, implicitly assumes lower growth in the fleet than SAVE's order book would indicate. view available tags
17	member 2/11/13 8:53AM RE: Maintenance 13
wrt, Your point is a good one, and your attempts to put some hard and fast numbers around the inevitable headwinds are reasonable. If you speak with SAVE management, they freely admit that increasing maintenance expenditures... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 2/08/13 8:54PM Maintenance
An excellent write-up, zzz. My biggest concern is that Spirit’s maintenance costs are understated by 25-40%. I did a lot of work on JetBlue when they were starting out and went public (and the stock was flying... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
11	member 2/08/13 3:11PM RE: Question 10
utah, I don't have a firm opinion for you on max fee revenue/ticket. I believe that ultimately, no matter how retarded you think the US consumer is, you can't "fool" them indefinitely. As such, an investment... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 2/04/13 8:35AM RE: Labor Costs - Pilots 6
eal, SAVE pilots are represented by the ALPA with a contract that becomes amendable in mid-2015. The way the contracts usually run, the beginning of the amendability period gets the clock ticking on a renegotiation process... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 2/04/13 7:15AM RE: Onlinetravelreview 7
charlie, Thanks, hadn't seen that post. Some positives and negatives from an opportunity and competition standpoint. Overall, I think a primary takeaway is that management moves aggressively to redeploy assets that don't meet hurdle returns; a... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 2/03/13 12:39AM Labor Costs - Pilots
Thanks for the write up. Can you speak to what will happen to labor over time. My understanding with some of the older legacy carriers is that a major thorn is the pecking order in pay... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 1/24/13 7:37PM RE: RE: RE: RE: Spirit 4
Oaktree was getting pretty long in the tooth on this investment. They're not so much in the business of carrying long-term stakes in non-distressed publicly traded equities. Their departure doesn't concern me, as they were... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 1/23/13 6:43PM RE: Spirit 1
charlie, All good questions. I'll take a quick stab, and come back at me if you want more detail. * Yes, it's fair to capitalize the leases if you want to compare them apples-to-apples with other airlines... login to read the rest view available tags

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