construct a store per 2005 prospectus, and even if we assume the cost didn’t rise with inflation
(a bold assumption), the cash flow generated by each store (~$300K pre-e.coli) implies more ~3
year of payback period.
Some people question that SHAK only serves a much smaller TAM given its premium pricing.
It’s no question SHAK serves a different group of customers than those McDonald’s (32,000+
stores) or Starbucks (27,000+ stores) is serving, some of these other chains also have many
times more stores in the US ALONE, with ~6,300 stores for Taco Bell, 2,100 for Chick-fil-A, 805
for Whataburger, 4,160 for KFC, and 2,221 Chipotle in the US by 2016.
While SHAK management stated its goal to reach 450 domestic store, we would not ever
consider SHAK if it only has proven success the US market. The international licensed store
changes the story of this investment. Even though domestic SHAK offers decent ROI, we much
prefer the asset light model from the licensing business. Shake Shack has presence in Middle
East, Europe, United Kingdom, and is actively growing its footprint in Asia. This is pure profit
coming from various markets that can be used for domestic expansion.
The international licensed Shack generates $3.33M AUV as of 2016FY. The company began its
international expansion when the Middle East partner first knocked on their door to request
licensing. The popularity of SHAK in other countries have led to further licensing with multiple
strong partners within their own markets. SPC Group in Korea is a global food company with
30+ brands and 6,000+ stores worldwide including Jamba Juice, Basikin Robbins, Dunkin
Donuts, etc. They had their first Korea Shack in 2016, and is expected to expand to 25 Shacks
in Korea by 2025. Many of these partners have experience opening stores for other franchises.
A new partner SHAK collaborates with is Maxim Caterers, which is a renowned food company
operating Starbucks in Hong Kong and China. Maxim will start rolling out its first store in Taipei,
Hong Kong, and Shanghai during 2018/19. The market is huge and the licensed partners look to
grow for the years to come.
We do not have contact with the SHAK management, but have made multiple visits to the
Shacks in US, UK, Dubai, Korea, and Japan. The partners have done great job connecting with
local markets and showing consistency of the quality. We have people living in Korea and Japan
that constantly update us with video of the stores outside of peak hours. Also, traffic data is
available for many Shack stores on Google Map. We find it convenient in monitoring the
popularity of various locations across the world.
To sum up the thesis, the per-store economic looks great and the runway seems long growing
from only 159 stores in 2017. However, the company is already hitting a high mark with $4.7M
AUV domestically. We have no idea how fast and how big of a decline we will experience in the
coming years, but the stock is likely to take a hit anytime the sales trend down to a normal AUV
level. Therefore, we expect it to be a roller coaster ride and do not recommend it for anyone with
a short horizon.