Description

Saga Communications (SGA)

Summary

Saga Communications (SGA) is a deeply under-valued radio broadcaster which has one of the least leveraged balance sheets in the radio industry and trades at a large discount to the industry.  SGA has only 4.3m shares outstanding and its trading volume is quite light, so this idea is likely appropriate for PA accounts or small- and micro-cap players.  However, several major investment firms have been able to assemble meaningful stakes over time.  SGA's shares are currently valued at about $26 per share for a market cap of $112m.  SGA had net debt of about $90m as of 9/30/10 for a total EV of $202m.  LTM EBITDA is about $34m and LTM Broadcast Cash Flow (BCF) is close to $40m.  We think both BCF and EBITDA can improve modestly in 2011. SGA is currently trading at 5.9x LTM EBITDA and 5x LTM BCF, which is well below most other publicly-traded radio broadcasters, many of which are leveraged close to 5x to 6x LTM EBITDA.  (See our industry comparables comparison below).  SGA is also trading well below the multiple that is being offered for Citadel Broadcasting by Cumulus on a hostile basis in the past few business days which we estimate to be about 8.5x EBITDA. 

We believe investors are starting to realize there is long-term value in the radio industry, especially if the U.S. economy continues to turn around and businesses increase their advertising spending.  We would not be surprised to see more consolidation in the radio industry by both strategic and private equity players. 

Based on our estimate of $20m to $23m of free cash flow per year, SGA generates about $4.65 to $5.35 per share of FCF as compared to its $26 share price.  Because SGA has only 4.3m shares outstanding, any material increase in EV creates dramatic increases in share price (this, of course, works both ways).  There are several ways to value SGA and all indicate the company is deeply under-valued.  Based on 7x to 8x LTM BCF of $40m, SGA would have an EV of $280m to $320m and deducting $75m of net debt (which we estimate by year-end 2011) results in a market value range of $205m to $245m or $48 to $57 per share.  Based on 9x LTM FCF of $20m, SGA would have a market value of $180m or $42 per share.  You can also value SGA based on LTM revenues or EBITDA.  Under all of these approaches, SGA is under-valued relative to other companies in the industry.  Even applying a reasonable discount due to SGA's limited liquidity or its small- market focus shows SGA to be trading at a large discount to the radio industry, which itself may be under-valued.

One smart investor who appears to have noticed this discrepancy is TowerView Capital (Dan Tisch), who has managed to accumulate a position of about 723k shares per their most recent 13D filing.  This represents about 19.7% of total shares outstanding and makes TowerView SGA's largest shareholder.  (TowerView is also a major shareholder in Fisher Communications (FSCI) which we also own and was very well written-up by Maggie1002 earlier this year).  While we are always careful to do our own work, it is nice to have a pretty smart shareholder alongside.

Business Description

SGA is a radio broadcaster operating in smaller markets which also has a few TV properties.  SGA owns or operates 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations, and 4 low power television stations.  The company serves various markets including Bellingham, WA; Columbus, OH; Norfolk, VA; Milwaukee, WI; Manchester, NH; Des Moines, IA; and Joplin, MO.  SGA's strategy is to operate the top ranked stations in mid-sized markets, which management defines as markets ranked from 20 to 200 based on Radio Market Report. 

Television stations include two CBS affiliates, one ABC affiliate, two Fox affiliates, one Univision affiliate, one NBC affiliate, and one Telemundo affiliate.  Like the radio segment, these TV properties are in small markets including Joplin, MO - Pittsburg, KS (ranked 147) and Victoria, TX (ranked 204).  SGA was founded in 1986 and headquartered in Gross Pointe Farms, MI. 

During 2007, 2008, and 2009, radio stations in the company's four largest markets contributed the following percentages of total BCF:  Milwaukee, WI (20% in 07, 08, and 09); Manchester, NH (10% in 07, 11% in 08, and 7% in 09); Des Moines, IA (6% in 07, 4% in 08, and 7% in 09); and Bellingham, WA (8% in 07, 7% in 08 and 09).  SGA is a strong local operator in its markets with multiple stations in most of its major markets and generally a #1 or #2 consolidated ranking in those markets.

LTM BCF is about $39.4m, of which the radio segment generated about $34.7m (88%) and the TV segment generated about $4.7m (12%).

We think the radio broadcasting business will continue to be a pretty good business going forward.  We especially like the local focus of SGA's business, with close to 85% of total revenues generated by local advertising.  We believe in these smaller cities, the advertising reach of free radio is difficult to match, especially for small businesses which are trying to quickly reach their local market customers.  We certainly recognize there are some new technologies out there as well as Sirius XM, etc. but SGA's radio stations are delivering as many listeners to their advertisers as ever.

Experienced  & Disciplined Management Team Oriented Towards Long-Term Value Creation

We like the management team at SGA which is led by CEO Ed Christenson and CFO Sam Bush.  (CEO Christenson is SGA's second largest shareholder and controls 60% of voting shares through his ownership of 100% of its Class Be stock).  These guys are conservative, disciplined, long-term operators who may not be flashy but are strong radio operators who take a low-risk approach that we like.  Their balance sheet at $90m of net debt (and falling) is only about 2.7x LTM EBITDA which is well below most other industry players, many of whom are leveraged 5x to 6x LTM EBITDA.  We believe SGA will continue to deleverage its balance sheet and maintain leverage ratios at least one turn below industry standards, and probably more.  We think SGA's balance sheet provides it with a strategic advantage and could allow them to pick up some smaller, distressed properties at attractive prices.

Management's response to the sharp downturn in 2008-9 was very impressive as revenues fell from $140m in 2008 to $121m in 2009 while EBITDA only declined from $34m in 2008 to $26m in 2009.  This was primarily due to aggressive reductions in operating expenses and corporate G&A expense which offset reduced ad revenues.  Due to these expense reductions, SGA was able to generate cash from operations of $27m, $25m, and $26m in 2007, 2008, and 2009 and rapidly deleverage the balance sheet.  SGA now has a very lean cost structure which could show large increases in BCF and EBITDA if advertising revenues begin to meaningfully grow again.

We do not expect management to sell SGA anytime soon, although we would not completely rule it out.  CEO Christian has stated that the only transactions happening right now in the radio industry are those involving distressed operators who are forced to sell.  Everyone else is waiting for ad revenues to rebound.  Free radio continues to be a very good business which requires relatively little capital investment and produces large amounts of free cash flow.

It is noteworthy that SGA bought back a large amount of stock in 2008, spending about $18m to repurchase close to 900k shares near $21 per share.  We believe that management would consider another such repurchase as the balance sheet continues to deleverage if accretive acquisition opportunities are not available and its share price remains depressed. 

Radio Industry Consolidation and Prospects

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Share repurchases

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We believe the entire radio industry is relatively depressed right now and that ad revenues, cash flows, and market multiples could all rebound meaningful if the economic expansion continues into 2011.

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Strong Balance Sheet and Rapid Deleveraging

Management responded to the downturn in 2008-9 by rapidly deleveraging the balance sheet to reduce risk using SGA's strong free cash flow.  Net debt was close to $130m in early 2008 and has been reduced to $90m at 9/30/10 and we expect net debt to drop to at least $70m to $75m by year-end 2011.  SGA's net debt position of $90 million as of 9/30/10 was only 2.7x LTM EBITDA which compares to Cumulus's net debt of over 5x EBITDA.  This leverage is far below that of most other players in the radio broadcasting industry, many of whom are leveraged near 5x to 6x LTM EBITDA.  We believe at some point management will start to use SGA's strong free cash flow to either repurchase undervalued shares or make accretive acquisitions. 

Strong Cash Flow Generation, Despite a Severe Downturn in Advertising

SGA's cash flow from operations for 2007, 2008, and 2009 were $27m, $25m, and $26m, respectively, which is very impressive considering this period represents one of the steepest declines in advertising expenditures in 40 years.  SGA sharply reduced its expense structure in response to the downturn in 2008-9 and, as a result, despite a 13.5% decline in revenues from 2008 to 2009, SGA's free cash flow was close to $20m for both 2008 and 2009.  In spite of very depressed advertising revenues, SGA is on track to once again generate $20m or more of FCF in 2010.  SGA's business requires very little capital expenditures, which are estimated at about $4m in 2010

Local Market Focus Provides a Strong Competitive Advantage

About 86% of SGA's gross revenues in 2009 were generated from local advertising in SGA's markets.  We believe the company is deeply entrenched in its local markets and has built hard to replicate relationships with local advertisers.  Strong relationships exist with local listeners as the company's stations emphasize local news and weather that is important to listeners in its markets.  By focusing on information that is specific to its local markets and that is important to listeners, SGA creates a strong competitive advantage.  We believe SGA's revenues have held up better than other broadcasters during the downturn due to this important local focus.

Well Positioned for A Modestly Recovering U.S. Economy

We think SGA and the entire broadcasting industry are well-positioned to realize improved results as the U.S. economy gradually recovers and businesses start to advertise more aggressively.  We believe radio advertising is an important and very cost-effective medium for local businesses to reach potential customers, especially in the small markets in which SGA operates.  In our view, SGA is essentially a bet on a recovery in its key geographic markets such as Milwaukee, WI; Manchester, NH; Des Moines, IA; and Bellingham, WA.  We are extremely confident in the long-term prospects for these markets.

Conclusion and Target Price

Based on 10x our target FCF of $23m for 2011, SGA could trade for $50 or more per share vs. $26 per share today (+100%).  Based on 8x LTM BCF of $40m, SGA would have an EV of $320m, less $75m of net debt at end of 2011, resulting in a market cap of $245m or over $50 per share.  At 7x our estimate of EBITDA for 2011 of about $35m, less $75m of net debt at year-end 2011, SGA would have a market value of about $170m or $40 per share.   There are clearly a lot of ways to value SGA but on every score the company is quite cheap and, we think, well-positioned for a modestly improving economy.  If SGA's management team continues to execute and the radio broadcasting industry continues to recover, we think our target prices could be achieved.

Industry Comparable Public Companies

Catalysts

• 1. Strong free cash flow generation; net debt position should continue to decline by close to $20m per year, absent any acquisitions, share repurchases, or dividends.
• 2. SGA may repurchase stock or pay a dividend once leverage is further reduced.
• 3. Possible acquisition of SGA by a strategic or financial purchaser.
• 4. Increased interest in radio broadcasting industry as the economy continues to recover.
• 5. Low valuation of 5x LTM BCF and 6x LTM EBITDA and close to $5 per share of FCF versus $26 share price.
• 6. Low risk balance sheet with net debt position of $90m or 2.7x LTM EBITDA as of 9/30/10 (versus several industry players at 5x to 6x LTM EBITDA)

Risks

• 1. Economy turns down again, especially in SGA's small markets.
• 2. SGA misallocates capital into a poor acquisition.
• 3. New technologies or services materially impact the radio industry and SGA.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer:  We own shares of SGA.  We may buy or sell these shares at any time without notice.  The information in the write-up is believed to be correct as of the date written but VIC members should do their own verification of this information and analysis of this potential investment.  We undertake no obligation to update this write-up if new information arises at a future date.

Catalyst