Stamps.com trades like an open-ended growth story but it’s a low-quality product in a declining end market
US total postal volumes have been declining at 5-10% annually and will likely continue to decline at a similar rate
Stamps.com has many competitors include Pitney Bowes
While Stamps sells postage and other products, the large majority of its revenues comes from the $15-25+ monthly subscription fees. This is primarily a subscription business
Huge number of negative reviews online (http://www.consumeraffairs.com/online/stamps_com.html)
Many customers complain of scam marketing tactics and extremely difficult cancellations policies
Rapidly slowing organic growth masked by recent M&A
Customer growth, total paid customers, postage printed, and core revenues were all on the decline until Stamps acquired two businesses – Shipstation and Shipworks – in 2H14
STMP has avoided quantifying the revenue contribution from acquisitions on earnings calls and in its filings
Momentum slowed again in 3Q15 as the company began lapping these acquisitions. STMP has since closed another deal, Endicia, in November 15
Without these acquisitions, organic revenue at Stamps would likely be anemic to negative
Sub base dynamics negative -- high churn & CPGA
Annual churn has consistently been 35-45%. The company’s efforts at reducing churn have not been successful
The company calculates a 3Q15 cost per gross addition (CPGA) of $106, down from $122 in 2014
However, an all-in CPGA (calculated on total S&M costs) is $170 and has not showed improvement
Stamps has paid fairly hefty multiples to consolidate smaller competitors
Acquired Shipstation in Jun14
Paid $50mm + 768,900 STMP shares tied to earn out
~6x run-rate revenues
~30x run-rate OP
Acquired Shipworks in Oct 14
Paid $22mm
Acquired Enidicia in Nov15
Paid $215mm cash
$60mm in FY14 revenues
Stamps hinted Endicia probably has around 14% PF operating margins
>3x revenues
>20x PF OP
$287mm in acquisitions have increased STMP market cap by $1bn
Corp governance is a question mark
4 person board comprised of:
Current CEO
One VC
One outside investor, Lloyd Miller
Sold $11mm of stock in 2H15
One former CEO
Valuation is very high. Trades like an open-ended internet company but is reliant on acquisitions and sells into a declining end market
5.5x consensus NTM revenues
16x consensus NTM EBITDA
22x consensus NTM PF EPS
EBITDA and PF EPS include a large number of adjustments. For instance, 9MTH15 EBITDA was $52mm vs. GAAP operating loss of $4mm. Some of the adjustments -- like the $10mm litigation expense -- may be truly one-time in nature but others such as corporate development and contingent consideration expenses seem to be a feature of the business strategy
LTM FCF $45mm. Add 10mm of FCF for Endicia (assume no capex and/or some cost cutting). That would put STMP at 32x EV/LTM FCF
Risks
Endicia acquisition will boost numbers for next year
Adds >$60mm in revenue
Adds >$10mm in EBITDA
The company typically sets a low bar for guidance and should be able to achieve it
I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy. I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.
Catalyst
By this time next year, Stamps will be lapping its deal with Endicia and organic growth will become clear.
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