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AUTHOR
DATE
SUBJECT
31
member
10/18/18 2:55PM
Re: Author Exit Recommendation
30
Finn's biggest disappointment, he said, was that he was unable to capitalize on his early insight that making 7 there pointers per game in the NBA would be a game changer. "If I could play... login to read the rest
tough tape to step in here. KIM and SPG are down 50% from amonth ago. I don't know if there is much appetite, or cash,for SHLD real estate. SHLD was guiding 3... login to read the rest
At $50, thoughts?I always viewed as three-prong story: operations, real estate, and brands.Will these operations produce cash going forward? Even if there is a recovery?How can SHLD monetize the real estate without further hurting operations... login to read the rest
I think that Lampert made the mistake of thinking that a few good retail and/or special situation (i.e. K-mart) investments during a massive bull market (for stocks, as well as for a debt-fueled consumer spending... login to read the rest
Thanks conway. I think it is quite undervalued here too, but thought I'd ask your thoughts. There appear to be a number of outs here, but it may take awhile.
I will avoid the tendency of some on this board to claim they have sold losers and are no longer following the position... :)
I am still long and I even follow the position. My... login to read the rest
Conway,Are you still following this company? Would you care to provide an update? What is the market missing here? It's probably not the best time to pass judgement on a retailer's long-term viability... login to read the rest
The commercial real estate market weakening
is hedge-able, as is the consumer rolling over, so the pain could have been a lot worse
than it has been (not the inverse).
I do love it at $104.
Since posting, a few things have happened:
1) Housing bubble has burst, badly
2) It looks like the consumer is rolling over
3) Kmart has not done well
4) The stock price has declined... login to read the rest
Commercial Real Estate Market is starting to go down the same path a subprime due to too much liquidity and bad underwriting. If commercial real estate values fall in the next 12 to 18... login to read the rest
This letter from the CEO to SHLD associates is fascinating/the right way to go for two reasons:
1) He explicitly talks about seeking innovative ideas from the lowest people in the organization. Great companies are... login to read the rest
Saks recently completed the sale of the Parisian stores to Belks. It provides another good comp for SHLD's mall space. It looks to me like the sale occurred at a lease-adjusted price of... login to read the rest
Call it oversight, or stupidity, or whatever you want to call it, but I am realizing that the best indicator of the value psf of the Sears portion of SHLD is of course FD's purchase... login to read the rest
Hmmm... sounds like you are almost asking for some sort of price target. While I won't give you one (I think the facts give a good enough layout of the investment case for investors... login to read the rest
Nice write-up. You wrote - "To give a sense of the upside, consider the following: if in three years, SHLD is generating $30 EBITDAR and has used $10B in cash generated to buy back... login to read the rest
David,
I think it is possible Sears is scaling back store closures due to Federated flooding the market, but I imagine any closing of stores Sears does do will be very limited. I think the... login to read the rest
To answer your second question first, I think investors have wised up to the "mining for real estate on the NYSE" game since the Kmart turnaround. Please see my original comment on this board:... login to read the rest
Conway,
Thanks for the detail.
In speaking with one analyst, he had indicated that Sears was scaling back some of their store closures so as not to flood the market at the same time as Federated. In
I bought K-Mart right when it emerged at around $15 because as you put it, it was selling at a discount to liquid assets net of real estate. I sold the stock at $22-23 and... login to read the rest
"How long are these leases for? A table in the 10K shows about $1B of operating
lease obligations are due within 4-5 years and about $4B after that. How does the
square footage... login to read the rest
Happy to clarify and I'm sorry I didn't before.
"Using $12 psf re-lease rate (blended
rate for Kmart higher re-lease rates and Sears lower re-lease rates), 3:1 leverage and
a 15% equity rate of... login to read the rest
Thanks for the write-up.
You said "Using $12 psf re-lease rate (blended rate for Kmart higher re-lease rates and Sears lower re-lease rates), 3:1 leverage and a 15% equity rate of return, the value of SHLD... login to read the rest
There have been numerous recent transactions in the retail sector, but I think the use of many of them as “comparables” are limited due to either the transaction being possibly biased towards high quality stores... login to read the rest
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