SALESFORCE.COM INC CRM
S
April 04, 2012 - 3:28pm EST by
member
| 2012 | 2013 | ||||||
| Price: | 154.92 | EPS | $0.49 | -$0.09 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 137 | P/E | 316.0x | NM | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 21,227 | P/FCF | 57.0x | 48.0x | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | -1,447 | EBIT | -18 | -163 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 19,780 | TEV/EBIT | NM | NM | |||
| Borrow Cost: | NA | ||||||
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 82 | |
"On the other hand, will law of large numbers eventually affect the company?"
Arghh... that's not what the "law of large numbers" is. Please... everyone in the world... please stop saying this. It causes me pain.
Here's | |
| 81 | |
SalesForce has averaged a 20% FCF margin on revenue for the last three years and they are still growing in the mid 20% range. The SaaS model is doing ok for them. | |
| 72 | |
WeighingMachine, let me take your sense of dismay a step further.
I think it's fair to argue that Google and Apple are
the gold standard in tech land. They set the bar for
revenue growth and cash generation.
The... login to read the rest | |
| 67 | |
Revenues are going through the roof but GAAP profitability is going the wrong way. Even the preferred measures of adjusted EPS or FCF are stuck in quicksand. Quarterly revenue was +36% YoY but adjusted EPS... login to read the rest | |
| 65 | |
The link below is to an article suggesting that the IBM and TDC misses were the result of security concerns highlighted by the Snowden revelations. I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on whether this | |
| 64 | |
Yeah I saw an interview with Chanos where he was asked about "valuation shorts" and shorting open ended growth companies. To paraphrase, he said that a great time to look at entering the shorts is... login to read the rest | |
| 59 | |
great stuff: http://seekingalpha.com/user/818827/instablog | |
| 56 | |
My experience is that when companies split their stock for 4/1 or more it usually predates a fall in the stock price. | |
| 53 | |
If you look closely at CRM's stock based comp disclosures, you'll find that they have largely shifted from granting options (1.3M granted in the first nine months of the 2013 FY) to outright grants of... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
Anyone have any thoughts on what would make this one really crack post-earnings tomorrow?
| |
| 43 | |
unfortunately i have nothing to add re: workday. my understanding is that they're selling ERP systems (hence going head to head against SAP and Oracle). i consider that to be more or less a different... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
For those (like me) who might have missed this....
http://www.newbrunswickbeacon.ca/25977/fired-radian6-employees-signed-gag-order/
Radian6+Buddy Media costed >$1bn together and they just fired a third of the staff before getting any measurable traction with the product | |
| 40 | |
mpk,
the comp you are using removes acquistions and FX from last year's number which is how you get to 145 (i have 144). However, these acquistions and the FX base should be included in the... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
avahaz,
i agree the lack of operating leverage is very strange. i'm not sure this is due to anything other than Benioff keeping the petal to the metal in terms of hiring. but i don't really... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
avahaz-
I also calcluated 221 in new billings, so the difference must be in my year-ago number. I calculate 3q12 new billings as follows:
549 rev - 17 change in deferred = 532 total billings
less 23 to... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
mojoris- thank you. as I'm sure you've noticed, the CFO has been a consistent seller. but Benioff has not sold anything since 2010. what do you make of that? any chance he could be somehow | |
| 35 | |
mpk,
How do you get to 50-60% growth in new business? reported billings of 696m (741 rev - 45 change in deferred) and adjust for the impact of longer invoicing (increases deferred rev change by 10m)... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
OK, so the crux of my thesis was that the growth rate of CRM's new business revenue (adjusted for renewals and a lot of noise and nonsense) was slowing despite huge investment in sales &... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
endur- thanks for the analysis. i've thought about this for a bit and came to some conclusions not too far from yours. my assumptions are:
-- they get to $5b in subscription revenues (prof services revenues... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
mpk391-
Thanks for the thoughtful write-up. We wanted to chime in on the valuation discussion, since we think it is helpful in discussing what needs to be believed for the stock to remain at current levels. ... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
Pat- great question. I probably should have gone thru the excercise of calculating a steady state (new adds = attrition) EPS number. Let me crunch the numbers.
In the meantime, I reviewed my notes and found... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
off the top of my head:
yes, salesforce productivity is declining. I personally have not crunched the numbers but a bunch of guys on the sellside do this regularly (and when the sellside puts out bearish... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Any updated thoughts? Looks like we are getting close to comping the longer invoicing. Wondering if you have done any analysis on productivity of the sales force. It seems like it is declining given how | |
| 26 | |
by the way, they're paying at least $689m, or about 15X run-rate sales for an unprofitable company. granted, $184m of that is in overvalued stock. but even if you said the shares are trading at... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/ibm-clock-runs-out-on-massive-siebel-implementation-enter-sugarcrm/75708
lower-cost SaaS competitor SugarCRM gets the IBM account. bad news for ORCL, really bad news for CRM | |
| 20 | |
The following was recently pointed out to me. might be nothing, might be something:
"I'd also check out the subtle change in their revenue recognition policy.Jan 2012 10-K pg 38: "The Company commences revenue recognition when... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
finn,
SaaS has gone further than most people thought, no doubt about it. but i think it's premature to say that ORCL/SAP/etc. are doomed. so far, I think most of their SaaS offerings have been simply... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
finn,
ORCL/MSFT/SAP have higher margins despite typically lower pricing because sales-related SaaS products are only a tiny part of their overall mix.
I would argue that CRM's accounting already looks at marketing as a capital investment because... login to read the rest | |