- Guidance was unchanged and EBITDA by my estimate is tracking at the high end of the full year range. Management reiterated its underlying business optimism for 2013 and beyond.
- Operating income was up 13% year over year in 1H2013 vs. 1H2012
- Backlog was up 41% to $285mm from $200mm in the prior year quarter
- $126mm of new contracts recorded in 2Q2013 in South America, North America and Southeast Asia – majority to begin in Q32013 and continue through Q12014
- The top line was down slightly year over year because of a one-time benefit in the prior year quarter.
- Given that Operating Income is on a $34mm run rate and that the D&A figure we have from 1Q13 annualizes to $15mm, the company is on pace to generate $49mm of EBITDA for the full year. That is the high end of the $46mm-$50mm guidance range and implies that the company is today trading on just under 4.4x 2013E EBITDA. Too cheap! We’ll get precise numbers later this week in the 10Q, or perhaps tomorrow on the conference call.
- This company has a market cap in the neighborhood of $146mm but can throw off $31mm/year in free cash when it slows capex, and has 1.4x Net Debt/EBITDA. That’s remarkably cheap: a free cash flow multiple of $146/$31 = 4.7x. Below please see see how I get to that free cash flow estiamte.
‘13E EBIT (1-35%) $22.1mm = $34mm * (1-35%)
Plus: D&A $15,000 (annualizing March 2013A quarter)
Less: CAPX <$5,000> (if they switched off growth - though we prefer them to grow)
Less: Net W/C <$1,000> (this is on the high side to be conservative, this number is probably lower)
Free Cash Flow Est. $31.1mm
8. Here is an updated valuation table:
| SAE Pro-Forma |
Low |
Mid |
High |
| ‘13E EBITDA |
49.0 |
49.0 |
49.0 |
| TEV/EBITDA |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
| Implied TEV |
220.5 |
245.0 |
269.5 |
| Less: Net Debt |
69.2 |
69.2 |
69.2 |
| =Equity Value |
151.3 |
175.8 |
200.3 |
| Fully Diluted S/O |
15.0 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
| Share Price |
$10.09 |
$11.72 |
$13.35 |
| % Up/Dn ($9.70) |
4.0% |
20.8% |
37.7% |
If one puts the shares on say 4.0x '13E then the stock trades to $8.45, or 12.9% down - and 37.7% up (on 5.5x) to $13.35.
Rememeber all the good things we like about SAEX (sound management, limited working capital and capex intensity, ability to deploy incremental capital at high rates of return, less seasonal, less sensitive to oil and gas prices, less geographically sensistive etc).
The SPAC deal succeeded and the first stand-alone quarter looks good. The stock has a reward/risk approaching 3:1, limited downside, and a profitable growing franchise.
I hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.