Thanks for posting this analysis. For those interested, a primary resource for projected capacity margin data (by region) may be found at the North American Electric Reliability Coucil's web site: http://www.nerc.com/~filez/rasreports.html. Also, the... login to read the rest
How does the retail business work? In Houston RRI owns the customer relationship, not the generation nor the lines. Success depends on the stickiness of the customer relationship, with the incumbent in the... login to read the rest
Jim -
How did you guys get started on this from a research perspective? Which resources did you find most useful?
Also, you mentioned the involvement of private equity players. Any sense as to the magnitude of
I can go into more detail on our understanding of the supply-demand numbers regionally and the retail utility business tomorrow if anybody's interested. My numbers are at the office.
Roughly 24% of the portfolio is... login to read the rest
I might also suggest that the valuations vulture buyers are paying now from forced sellers, or what distressed players are writing their assets down to is probably not your best estimate of value.
The private equity... login to read the rest
OK, so we're going to assume the old gas plants are worth close to nothing...NOT.
Kind of ironic that this morning as I was reading these responses I was also reading a Bloomberg news... login to read the rest
Sounds like a very heavy discount is appropriate to your replacement cost-based valuation of wholesale. Perhaps 50%? Also management has acted like horses asses for a long while and has earned at least another... login to read the rest
would be helpful if you do a break-up val on the plants to justify per kw valuation of wholesale biz.
new gas plants, old gas plants, old coal plants, contracts.
i am thinking the old gas plants... login to read the rest
"The company has an unregulated electric utility in Houston where they are the incumbant in a deregulated market"
As a CA resident this sentence does not fill me with confidence. Can you sketch out de-reg works... login to read the rest
I'm going to be busy responding tomorrow so lets get started. You are arguing that this is a bad idea because it is a commodity business which will never earn more than its cost... login to read the rest
Seems that it comes down to how long you think the newly built plants will take to earn a return sufficient to justify their replacement cost. What makes you certain it's not a 10 year... login to read the rest
1-This is a commodity business that will never earn more than a market return. therefore the old gas plants, which are much more costly to run, have very little value.
2-it will be a long time... login to read the rest
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