2007 | 2008 | ||||||
Price: | 4.94 | EPS | |||||
Shares Out. (in M): | 0 | P/E | |||||
Market Cap (in $M): | 47 | P/FCF | |||||
Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT |
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Red Envelope (“REDE”)
currently trades at 0.33x sales, has a total enterprise value of ~$35m, $10m in
cash and no debt. We are recommending the purchase of REDE shares ahead of a potential
turnaround this holiday season. The company is under the direction of their
third management team in as many years, and we believe this one, led by Executive
Chairman John Pound, is finally set to realize the potential of the brand. The
shares have traded off to $5 ahead of what are expected to be poor results for
the September quarter, but we believe investors are missing the forest for the
trees. The September quarter is the least important of the year due to the lack
of any material holidays, and includes a ramp in working capital as the company
builds inventory ahead of the Christmas selling season. Since Pound formally
took the reigns in April, he has been able to change out 25% of the
merchandise, but more importantly, has begun to reinvent the Red Envelope
image. The catalog and website have been relaunched for the holidays with a
look and feel much more akin to Pottery Barn, versus prior looks reminiscent of
an old Service Merchandise or Sears catalog. In addition to bringing in new
merchandise, including deeper selections in the most popular lines, management
has continued to work through a significant amount of slow moving inventory.
REDE was written up before on
VIC in 2005, when the company was still under the direction of Allison May. Please
refer to the write-up by bedrock346 for further background on the company.
Shortly after this posting, Allison May was replaced as CEO by Ken Constable, a
veteran of Dell and more recently SVP and general manager of ProFlowers, which
was sold to Liberty under his watch at a substantial premium. Ken was brought
in by the board to fix the bloated cost structure and finally make the business
profitable. His priority for fiscal 2007 (year ended March 2007) was to be free
cash flow positive for the first time. Upon hiring Ken, several well regarded
hedge funds, as well as current Chairman John Pound, bought substantial stakes
in REDE (amounting to a substantial majority of the shares), and things had
finally appeared to turn the corner. The stock initially faded from $10 down to
$6.50, but built support back at the $8 level following a strong fiscal third
quarter, which reflects Christmas holiday sales. Unfortunately for investors at
the time, this was the highest valuation they would see, and Ken was dismissed
in April by the Board. While Ken was successful in his pursuit of
profitability, the Board discovered that it came at the expense of new customer
prospecting. By focusing on maximizing sales to current customers, Ken was able
to meet the profit goals the Board had laid out for him, but it was to the
detriment to future growth.
The lack of prospecting has
led to three straight quarters of year over year reductions in new customer
growth. But under the current leadership of John Pound, we believe these negative
trends will turn positive in 2008, with a good chance that holiday 2007 sales
will also come in ahead of massively lowered expectations. As a lack of new
customer prospecting has negatively affected current sales, the resumption of
prospecting this summer should drive increased customer acquisition in 2008.
However, even without new customers, REDE should be able to win greater repeat
business from their current active customer list through their ongoing shift away
from a “tired product assortment” (Pound’s quote from first earnings release)
towards more inspiring products, such as the ballpark cuff links (see website www.redenvelope.com).
Unfortunately, as over 75% of
REDE’s products are internally designed and sourced from overseas
manufacturers, the lead times average 6-9 months for most new merchandise. We
would have loved for Pound to come in and turn the merchandising on its head
and have a 100% new lineup heading into holiday 2007 – but with the lead times
involved, he was only able to put his personal stamp on around 25% of the
current holiday catalog. But it is the new creative message evident in the
latest holiday catalog that may offset the other negatives heading into this
season. We urge potential investors to look at the latest catalog on their
website and judge for themselves. No matter one’s personal reaction to the
current state of the creative, there can be no argument that it is a tremendous
leap from where REDE was a year ago, when the catalog was simply a listing of
products names, pictures and prices.
So as we stand, calendar 2008
(fiscal 2009) will feature a continuing shift away from legacy merchandise, a
more refined creative message to customers, and the rewards from renewed 2H2007
new customer prospecting initiatives. Additionally, Pound has spent several
million dollars this year to overhaul the fulfillment center and implement new
software initiatives to gather and analyze customer data to create a more
targeted marketing message. These latter two projects are not readily visible
to the end consumer per se, but will contribute just as much, if not more, to
future growth.
At this point, you may be
asking who John Pound is and where did he come from? His bio can be found on
his fund’s website, www.integrity-brands.com.
He is a well-regarded investor focused mainly on the specialty retail industry,
with past success found in the likes of Gymboree, Cache and United Retail
Group. He was brought onto the board by company founder Scott Galloway and was
named Chairman a couple of months prior to the departure of CEO Ken Constable,
at which time he was named Executive Chairman of REDE. Pound is very much
aligned with shareholder interests with a 9% stake in the company, and has also
personally arranged for $2.6m in bridge financing for the current holiday
season should the company require additional working capital heading into
December. He has a fantastic track record at similarly troubled branded
companies, has shown he is willing to put his money at risk alongside
shareholders and is obviously shown himself to be an active, hands-on investor.
He took over control of the company at a difficult time of year to enact
near-term change, but given enough time to repeat his prior successes, John
Pound should be able to reap rewards for all shareholders in Red Envelope.
Valuation:
At $5, REDE stock is
currently trading around 33% of sales, with a market cap of $47m, 10m of cash
and no debt. At the low end of peer valuations, retail companies facing
financial crisis tend to trade in a range of 15-25% of sales, with SHRP the
best current example of where shares could go if the company does not gain
traction in the coming months. On the flip side, growing brands with at or on
the verge of profitability tend to trade over 1x sales, such as AMZN, OSTK, IACI,
FTD and PETS. Refer to the table below for current peer valuations:
Company
Name |
Ticker |
EV/ Current Sales |
EV/ FY1 Sales |
LTM EBITDA Margin |
BLUE NILE
INC |
|
3.95x |
3.55x |
7% |
AMAZON.COM
INC |
AMZN |
2.72x |
2.47x |
6% |
PETMED
EXPRESS INC |
PETS |
1.66x |
1.55x |
14% |
OVERSTOCK.COM
INC |
OSTK |
1.13x |
1.11x |
-4% |
IAC/INTERACTIVECORP |
IACI |
1.11x |
1.09x |
12% |
FTD GROUP
INC |
FTD |
1.14x |
1.08x |
15% |
WILLIAMS-SONOMA
INC |
WSM |
0.85x |
0.81x |
12% |
DRUGSTORE.COM
INC |
DSCM |
0.73x |
0.70x |
-1% |
BARNES
& NOBLE INC |
BKS |
0.41x |
0.41x |
7% |
1-800-FLOWERS.COM |
FLWS |
0.43x |
0.41x |
6% |
BORDERS
GROUP INC |
BGP |
0.36x |
0.37x |
3% |
REDENVELOPE
INC |
REDE |
0.33x |
0.35x |
-3% |
INSIGHT
ENTERPRISES INC |
NSIT |
0.31x |
0.30x |
4% |
SHARPER
IMAGE CORP |
SHRP |
0.17x |
0.19x |
-18% |
From the table below, one can
see that near-term downside risk to shares due to lower than expected holiday
2007 sales is around $3, with substantial upside should Pound right the course
of the company.
Price Target Matrix (Year Ending
March 31) |
||||
|
2007 |
LTM |
2008E |
2009E |
Sales |
121 |
119 |
114 |
125 |
1.00x |
$13.76 |
$13.51 |
$12.97 |
$14.16 |
0.75x |
$10.57 |
$10.39 |
$9.98 |
$10.88 |
0.50x |
$7.39 |
$7.27 |
$6.99 |
$7.59 |
0.33x |
$5.16 |
$5.08 |
$4.90 |
$5.29 |
0.15x |
$2.93 |
$2.89 |
$2.81 |
$2.99 |
Possible Takeout?
Provide Commerce, and online
retailer of flowers of and gifts, was sold to
show sort by |
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